Paul Millsap Trade Breakdown Breakdown

Well, wha' happened?

Paul Millsap was supposed to be dealt, but now it looks like he is not going anywhere, no sir. Out is the notion that the Hawks have detonated this team and in is the notion that Millsap is too valuable to let get away.

What changed? Let's break it down just a smidgy.

What was said: "Paul Millsap is too valuable to trade"

Translation: We shopped him, but teams took a look at his contract, his opt out and what the Hawks wanted in return for the All-Star and said, "Ummm, not at this juncture, no."

Result: No Millsap trade, yet.


What was said: "Hawks are determined to compete in the Eastern Conference"

Translation: "Holy crap, this conference is so flat we've won six in a row and are in 4th place!"

Result: It's hard to take anything less than the best possible deal for Millsap when you are reasonably well placed in the playoff hunt.


WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?!?!?!!

What it means is that the Hawks would have traded Millsap if someone like the Raptors had come across with Jonas Valanciunas, Norman Powell and a pick, but since no trade like that emerged, and the Hawks are suddenly three games and two spots behind those same Raptors, why take a lesser deal than you want when you can kick the can two months down the road and see where you are?

The trade market for Millsap will not go away unless he is injured, a possible scenario of course, but the Hawks can hold for a little while as they see where all of this goes and open the market back up if things change.

Will it matter?

The Hawks have figured out their defense and are back to being the second best defense over the past 10 games and first over the last five games. The offense still needs help, as it is middle of the pack over the last five games, but their net rating is back up to third best.

Perhaps improvement in Dennis Schröder is part of that -- over the last five games he has played slower in pace, but raised his efficiency and lowered his personal defensive rating.

Also, part of the recent spike for the team may have addition by subtraction because (hold on, I'm getting emotional) the departure of Kyle Korver took the lowest net rated player this season and the 28 minutes per game he was getting, replacing it with more minutes for the much higher rated Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thabo Sefolosha.

Does it mean the Hawks secretly infected the Cavs with Korver and have now turned the tables on the defending champs? Maybe! And that's a better outlook than the Hawks had 10 games ago when all of this began to take shape.

Always love comments in the comments area -- reply SLAs are posted in THHB offices under lock and key.

Best in The East?

The Hawks attempted to make the case in back-to-back games this weekend against the Celtics and the Hornets.

Now the standings say so.

Going into Sunday's games, (12) percent of the way into the season, there stand the Atlanta Hawks at 8-2, top record in the East. It's a small sample of games, but taking it as a progress report, who wouldn't take that grade?

But the question is can the Hawks make it last?

They have the win in Boston, but they also have the loss in Charlotte. With the exception of that upset to Larry Brown's crew and a momentary lapse of being in Los Angeles, the Hawks have shown a new side to them--one of strong rebounding, active defense, and even more firepower than before and haven't been beaten.

We were skeptical that this version of the team could improve on a (47) win season and a second round appearance against the conferences' best before the season.

Now? We might be willing to believe.

Why?

Wrote a Blog About It---Like to Hear It, Here it Goes

There are (3) big reasons we have seen that helps the Hawks chances at advancing their cause this postseason.

3. Improved Firepower

The Hawks were suspected to have more depth and so far the substitutions of Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith for RFM and Solomon Jones have been well received.

RFM had a good year last year, but it's clear that Crawford is at least Murray on Jamal's bad days and a level above Flip on his better days. Crawford's PER is currently at (20), which would be the best of his career, which logically poses the question if he can keep up this level of efficiency.

As has been well documented, Crawford has never played a single playoff game. The win totals of the teams he's been on are (15, 21, 30, 23, 33, 23, 33, 23, and 29).

The best players and their PER for those corresponding seasons:

2000-2001: Elton Brand, 20.4
2001-2002: Brad Miller, 19.6
2002-2003: Donyell Marshall, 18.4
2003-2004: Jamal Crawford, 15.9, then Jerome Williams, 15.4
2004-2005: Stephon Marbury, 21.9
2005-2006: Channing Frye, 18.1
2006-2007: David Lee, 20.2
2007-2008: Zach Randolph/David Lee, 18.0
2008-2009: Andris Biedrins, 19.1

What does it mean? Well, Jamal may not have played with as much talent as the Hawks have had collectively, but indiviually speaking it's no different from a top-end perspective than the Hawks (Joe Johnson, 18.2). Can Crawford's game improve so strongly based on a stronger team? So far, so good.

2. Attack!

While the Hawks haven't made a commitment to the post, they have been heading toward the hoop more, reduced their dependency on the 3---rate from (20) to (17) per game, and raised their offensive efficiency to second in the league. (All stats courtesy of Basketball Reference) They are among the leaders at points-in-the-paint and that has resulted in more open looks for The Backcourt, especially against lesser comp. Their game pace is faster, too---8th in the league right now compared to 24th a year ago. 


1. Josh Smith and Defensive Rebounding

Maybe the most obvious example of the above, Smith has taken his game to another level thus far this season. Always known as the biggest X in the x-factor, Smith's PER is at (25) so far and has stayed firm to the commitment to playing around the hoop on the offensive end and has taken his game up a notch all around.

Between Smith and Al Horford's improvement, the Hawks have jumped to 10th from 24th in defensive rebounding percentage, a huge area of opportunity going into the season. The difference that these two have made has put the Hawks in the discussion of best in the East right now.


Bravo and Encore

For further evidence to defy THHB's skepticism, The Hawks are on top of Basketball Reference's Simple Rating System for the entire league and are playing so well together right now, they even seem to walk off the court in unison.

Even if you don't believe that it will last--if you are a Hawks fan, enjoy this run. How long has it been since the Hawks have been the best even over a 10 game stretch?


THHB recognizes that Hoopinion is doing a much more stellar job tracking season long themes statisically than in this space. More fuel for the fire can be provided in the Comments Area.

Bah, Humbug!

The worst part of any draft, be it NFL, NBA, or even your run of the mill fantasy sports draft, is seeing the player you most desperately want taken right in front of you. It seems to happen endlessly and while you should expect it, it still never fails to deflate your spirits.

So it's with great apathy that the HHB welcomes Jeff Teague, Wake Forest to the Hawks Nation.

Teague, who was only forecasted by hundreds of draft mockers to go to the Hawks, seems like a good enough pick, but the prospects of a Ty Lawson selection (officially endorsed by the HHB, if you didn't know) was so close (he was snapped up by the Nuggets by way of one of the TimberWolves 99 picks in the draft a single pick before the Hawks slot) that no amount of goodness can seem to wash it away.

Still, many draft observers raved about the new Hawks guard--so much so that we had to ask ourselves--other than sour grapes---why be disappointed about Teague? After all he put up these numbers (32.7 Pts/100 possessions, 50.1 2PTFG%, 44.1 3PTFG% (102 attempts), 81.7 FT%, 48.2 FT Rate--thanks, Hoopinion!) in one of the toughest conferences in the nation. He hung 30 on North Carolina and 28 on Duke. He was repeatedly lauded for his skill of getting into the lane offensively. He is an exceptional leaper, can get to the rim, and has great range on his shot.

So what's the problem?

Well stop us if you have heard this before--His listed (supposed, we will allow) weaknesses include a lack of defense, no real point guard acumen, turnover prone, and is a bit of a tweener.

In other words, the Hawks selected another combo guard who doesn't handle the ball well, looks to shoot, and doesn't have a real position.

If you missed it, the Hawks just traded for Jamal Crawford, who exhibits the exact same portfolio but has at least three inches of height on Teague. Ronald "Flip" Murray is also cut from this cloth, thought he is an unrestricted free agent. Joe Johnson also likes to dribble and shoot.

Heck, no wonder Josh Smith took so many outside shots and raced the ball upcourt himself last year--he must have felt that this would eventually be the only way to get the ball--after all if you can't beat them, join them. What a seer!

Also, most folks believe that there is no way that the Hawks will invest the money they are in Crawford and Teague and still bring back Mike Bibby (especially if the cheaper Murray is retained)--in fact, Crawford himself was rumored to have said in an interview that he was to be the Hawks starting PG. This would leave the Hawks with no actual point guard, again---a sickness that has haunted this franchise forever and hindered them from getting to the playoffs prior to Bibby's arrival late in the '07-'08 season.

The point guard position is a quarterback role on a basketball team and can often be the vocal leader. The Hawks lack both on the court and the missed opportunity to address it through the draft and the financial barriers around doing it through free agency exacerbate the frustration we feel when the Hawks continue to go down a path they've well taken by adding Teague.

We hope that Teague emerges as a Ben Gordon type scoring juggernaut for the Hawks, but to us, right now, he smacks of an unproven NBA project who has no position and simply duplicates what exists currently on the roster and, possibly, eliminates some skill sets (by losing Bibby) that aren't replaced by the young guard.

Still, Hawks GM Rick Sund believes they took the best athlete available, which is close to saying the best player available, but not quite--but really, taking who they felt was the best, regardless of need or what we already have is all you can ask for a team--heck, it's almost all we asked just prior to the draft.

There are still some trade pieces left to play for the Hawks (Childress, Marvin, etc.) so we won't surrender to our initial negativity as yet, but selecting a player who continues to enable a failed, flawed offensive "philosophy" of isolation, dribble, and shoot does not excite us.


Why Can't You Be More Like Your Brother?

We have to ask---why is it that, no matter who the regime is or who owns the Hawks, that they:

1. Don't trade up strategically to select anyone that has ridiculously slipped (No, Dan Dickau does not count).

2. Draft a second round pick who will "stay overseas" (Read: won't cost anything)

Now, we understand that the Hawks selected a shooter (surprise!) Sergiy Gladyr who has good game, but so does David Andersen, but that hasn't brought the big fella over to help out the team in the States yet, eh? Alain Digbeu and Antonis Fotsis (who did play in the NBA, but only after the Hawks dealt him to PHL) are also part of this famed club. Heck, even Josh Childress can get in on his restricted free agent pass.

The Hawks had some pieces to deal, and some talent to acquire on draft night, but the Hawks seemed content to stand pat and in other cases, punt. Seeing Blair drop into San Antonio when the Hawks desperately needed size/rebounding and everybody, so it seemed, was dealing picks above the Hawks, smells an awful lot like a missed opportunity. In fact, there seemed to be so much movement by other teams desperate to improve through the draft process that the Hawks, even with the trade for Crawford, seemed sedentary by comparison.

In fact, soon after the Teague pick, Hawks.com draft room spy, Micah Hart, tweeted that Sund made the statement that "I'm definitely happy with what we've done today." That Sund seemed content doesn't necessarily mean they were ready to hang up the phones and stop working, but it doesn't exactly engender the feeling that it (trading for more talent) was on their minds either.


Party Time!

We thank The Bill Shanks Show for having us on all day yesterday. We talked a lot of hoops, Hawks, and even chatted with Bob Rathbun. We watched as Vince Carter rumors rose and then graduated to honest to goodness trade status. Good times---

We also had a great time on the night long (and it was long) draft chat, hosted by the HHB and Hoopinion. Thanks to all who stopped by and commented and most of all, to Bret, who set the whole thing up. It wasn't all we wanted the evening to be (would it have killed the Hawks to move up for Bret's DeJuan Blair pick?) but it was good to have company as it all unfolded.


The HHB is pleased to have the NBA Christmas over for 2009, but enjoyed it greatly--further thoughts about the Hawks pick or anecdotes regarding draft night can be shared in the temperature controlled Comments Area.

Official HHB Hawks Season Recap

47 wins, most since 1997-98.

Second round of the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

A 6-0 start to the season, with wins on the road against New Orleans and Orlando that would serve notice that the Hawks competitiveness in the previous season's playoffs was more proof than fluke.

At first pass, one would say that the 2008-2009 season was a successful one for the Hawks and their young core.

Still, the HHB has spent a week on the sports psychiatrist's coach asking this question:

Why, given the simple data that shows improvement, does it feel like such a letdown?


What follows are the (formerly) confidential notes from those sessions:


When (10) Wins Doesn't Feel Like Improvement

As the Hawks were being ushered out of the previous year's post season festivities by the eventual champs, while celebrating the areas that the Hawks had been good at by making the playoff experience the longest it could have been for a first round exit, it was clear there were some areas that the Hawks needed to focus on to improve and build on the playoff berth.

Then the new season started and the Hawks came out with all guns blazing, bursting a 6-0 start that only the heralded Los Angeles Lakers could match. Included in these games were a rousing opening night win in Orlando and a surprising road win against New Orleans. In these games, the Hawks played strong as a unit and seemed intent on making the case that they were serious about taking a step forward from the season before.

Then, Josh Smith got hurt, the streak ended, and the Hawks played six games above .500 the rest of the way. The rest of the way we saw a team that was strong at home, inconsistent at best on the road, and mired in their ways.

Read any blog about the Hawks for this past season and you will see what the HHB is referring to here. Their ways. This would include:

Josh Smith and His Many Ways to Confound, Frustrate, and Entertain (and produce).

Constant slow starts at the beginning of games as the Hawks would try to take the other team's basketball temperature to see how hard they would have to play for that night. This would be commonly referred to by the team themselves as "coming out flat".

Offensive game plans that amounted to little more than dribble down, make a pass, and then stand around and watch that chosen player break his man down one-on-one and see what happens. At the end of games, this would be referred to as "Watching Joe Johnson".

Poor defensive efforts that would start with Mike Bibby struggling to maintain his man or, worse still, constant switching that would create whatever matchup the other team wanted to see. It's no Rubik's Cube when everybody knows how to solve that little mystery.

The Atlanta Hawks feature a talented young roster that on some nights can out-athleticize and out-shoot most teams in the NBA. This works against less talented teams in the league, but it doesn't scale to good teams, or on the road, and certainly not when both those factors are in play.

Second Round and Bust

To advance past the Miami Heat (w/Dwyane Wade!) and move into the second round seems like good progress, but nothing about the first round victory seemed impressive, especially given that all the points above reared their ugly heads continuously through that seven game series.

The Hawks had way more talent ready to win than Miami did, yet allowed all their bad habits to stretch the series to the limit.

Then came the series against Cleveland, or as Cavs fans call it "Did We Play A Second Round?". Whereas the Hawks surprised the Celtics the season before and were able to jump the better team at home, this sound team was ready and took all the Hawks best shots before tossing them aside. The Hawks had used home court and the energy Philips Arena provided as a crutch and a way to hide the glaring issues that lingered throughout the season. The Cavs came along and pulled back the curtain on the Hawks and showed just how far mentally and strategically the team had to go to really be anything more than a participant in the NBA's glory season.

When Do You Know That It's Love?

That's how you can go from a quick look at the simple data and see success to feeling underwhelmed by the whole finish.

When a team seems like they peaked in the sixth game of the year, the rest of the season will have that anti-climactic feeling to it. Add in the annoying, obvious, and continuous problems that were never addressed for the remainder of the season, and one might see how Frequent Bird Watchers can carry this opinion about a 47 win, second round playoff team--even given the recent history.

Looking at the statistics, most everything improved about the team, especially compared with the rest of the league---their offensive rating (per 100 possessions) improved from 16th to 10th, and their defensive rating made a similar improvement (18th to 11th).

Marvin Williams and Al Horford both made strides towards being more efficient in the PER model (The HHB will address players individually in greater detail throughout the offseason), Mike Bibby greatly improved the play from the point guard position from the season before, and even Joe Johnson proved to be slightly more productive than in the previous season.

And by the way, you know, when you're telling these little stories? Here's a good idea - have a POINT. It makes it SO much more interesting for the listener!

Our bottom line is this---there is no disputing the productive improvement over the course of the season, 10 games more won, moving forward in the playoffs, home court advantage---all of these definitely point to an improvement and a step forward for a franchise that had no forward movement at all for this decade.

However, when feeling positive about this team, it's hard not to be concerned about the areas which plagued the team all season long, without correction. It's those problems that caused a disaster of a second round series and prolonged a first round series against an inferior team, in which home court was, at one point, lost.

This offseason will be dotted with drafts, free agency, and a probable "Where in the World is Josh Childress" story arc at some point.

But, in our opinion, the most important and influential area that the Hawks can address are the ways in which they lost the season before. We can always use more talent---and that was made clear as well throughout the year, especially in the case of many injuries---but all the talent in the world can't mask some of the systemic problems we've noted here often and above, and if the goal is to move beyond the benchmark of this season, then these have got to be corrected.

Or so says our therapist.

The HHB will be offering player reviews throughout the offseason, but also has a 5th child on the way, creating a devastating Starting Five in about (20) years. Thoughts and Diapers can be left in the Comments Area.