Thursday, July 30, 2009

Marrrrviiiinnn!!

Shame on the HHB.

Having been called out on Twitter by the fine folk(s) @peachtreehoops for not having a reaction to the not-yet-but-close-enough-to-say-it's-close-enough signing of Marvin Williams, the HHB is compelled to pander--something that comes naturally to the attention needy such as we.

The contract, as being tossed about by various media outlets, is a reported 5 years, 40ish million dollars with incentives to bridge the gap between 37 and 40 million that are probably related to Marvin not missing an unreasonable amount of games over the course of the contract. (Hey, at least the Hawks are trying to save the insurance companies a buck or two. Viva economy!)

From the Hawks point of view, this is a good deal.

They lock up their Age 23 small forward for his prime years, and was able to do so after watching a season where he showed the Hawks what he can provide at the very least throughout those years.

His numbers improved almost across the board, with the lone exception of assist rate (come on, Marv!). A 117 offensive rating, 16PER, and career highs in eFG (.502) and TS% (.569) tell the story of what we thought we were seeing last season; a player who, after two seasons of feeling around the basketball floor, finally found his rhythm on the court, and became a big reason the Hawks improved to (47) wins last season.

Maybe the biggest non-statistical indication of Marvin's progress came when he missed over a dozen games during the season with a bad back. His return was not only newsworthy, he received a standing ovation from the loving fans @ Philips Arena--and put the "but he's not" conversations to rest for a little while.

As for the money involved, the team could have played hardball with Marvin, as they did with Josh Smith and Josh Childress a season before, and made him find the market value for himself. But the Hawks could not afford to dare Marvin to play out the qualifier and become an unrestricted free agent after next year. Even with a doom-and-gloom prediction over a cap reduction next season, there are plenty of indications that there will be a lot of money available for next year's free agent crop--with few top end free agents to spend it on, which could lead to overspending on players like Williams for those teams who don't nab those top free agents in 2010.

The Hawks also would have risked Williams taking another step forward in his development next season and leaving the Hawks wishing they had locked him up when they had the chance. (D'oh!) After having Josh Childress in Greek purgatory, the Hawks had to ensure they would not lose another above average producing player for nothing.

Even if the Hawks aren't completely satisfied, Williams' youth and (getting) well rounded game should make him an interesting trade piece for whatever shows to be a more obvious need over the course of the 2009-2010 Hawks campaign.


It's a good deal for Marvin, too.

He now doesn't have to sweat it out throughout next season, wondering if he will make it through the year without suffering an injury that would significantly hurt his chances at a high dollar package.

He can also proceed with just playing basketball--in that contract watching and worrying can be an amazing distraction for any player. Marvin can cash his checks and focus on the game now--no small positive there.

5 years, 40 million dollars. Not too shabby.


...stroking their beards and wondering, "What's to be done with this HHB?"

This is a good deal for the fans, also. Marvin is a likable, productive player who has worked hard (and succeeded) at getting better every season. He is rounding himself into a productive player in every facet of the game and can be counted on to give great effort, especially on defense.

We are only left to hope that the incentives in this proposed contract commit Marvin to keeping the all important and powerful mustache, his consistently great quotes, and an instructional video on how to solve the Rubik's Cube.

The HHB is happy that the Hawks were able to take care of Marvin and finish off the internal free agent season (sorry RFM). Odes to Marvin's Mustache can be sung in the sound proof Comments Area.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Lose My Mind

Y'all gon' make me lose my mind
up in HERE up in here
Y'all gon' make me go all out
up in here up in here
Y'all gon' make me act a FOOL
up in HERE up in here
Y'all gon' make me lose my cool
up in here up in here

Much like the performer of the above, the Hawks have entered a puzzling/confusing stage in their development---as well as their attempts to improve on a second round ouster at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers last season.

Sekou Smith divulges the inner financial minds of the Hawks decision makers in his latest blog offering and the results are somewhat upsetting, but not all that surprising.

Our favorite passage from the Book of Sekou in regards to the well documented pursuit of free agent frontcourtman Joe Smith:

All that said, major work must be done to secure Smith’s signature on a contract. It’s not secret the Hawks aren’t paying the same rate for backup bigs that some other teams are (for example, Chris Wilcox got cash - $6 million over two years - in Detroit that he never could have from the Hawks. Same goes for Drew Gooden and the reported $4.5 mil he’ll bring in on a one-year deal with the Spurs). So they have to find ways (PLAYING TIME!!!!!!!!!!) to lure the kind of players they need to help bolster their cause. It probably helps that, in a summer marked by taking care of in-house business (home grown free agents), Smith is the first player outside of the family that the Hawks actually courted. Again, there is major work still to be done on this front.
Apparently the work doesn't involve spending even a majority (or plurality if they really want to stretch it to include three players) of the MLE.

Though they ponied up the money to resign Mike Bibby (at less cost of either Andre Miller or Jason Kidd it should be noted) and Zaza Pachulia (less cost than Anderson Varejao or Marcin Gortat), they seem unwilling to go a step further and improve the team by bringing in a player(s) that addresses one of the key shortcomings (rebounding) of last year's team.

Teams like the Utah Jazz have even gone so far as to consider loans to ensure they have enough talent to be a contender in the West. This is a standard practice in the world of sports--seeking lines of credit to fund an up front purchase. The Hawks, or at least some of the ownership, aren't as likely to dip into those financial waters, and what is left is having to try to do a vaudevillian sales pitch to try and get even one free agent to come on in. It's no wonder that the Hawks weren't involved with the Bobcats, Cavs, or Mavericks in trying to acquire Drew Gooden or why even with a lovefest and full court press attention to Joe Smith there isn't a signed contract in hand as yet. The Hawks would rather spend 2 million on slightly above replacement level talent than to pay a premium on a role player of any significance.

In the modest HHB minds, that's not how you improve your roster to address the needs of the team and move into the contender stage of a franchise's development.

This is not to say that the Hawks are cheapskates--well, at least not in roster payroll terms--they are making sure the product is good enough, therein the reason why they re-signed Bibby and Zaza. But good enough isn't the same good enough for a championship and actions such as these indicate the Hawks will always be faced with just enough financial restrictions to prevent them from really making the jump beyond a really nice regular season team.

And, in This Corner

Bret over @Hoopinion lays out a pretty strong case why the Question is Moot (or maybe moot) regarding the addition of a fourth big man to the rotation.

The origin of the insight provided was the surrender of the Hawks' rights to Solomon Jones to the Pacers so that he could sign a 2-year deal at the minimum salary level. Now, we would still question why the Hawks felt it was necessary to qualify Jones in the first place if they were willing to part with the forward even at the minimum--you know, since the Hawks have (15) slots to fill and all. We would also ask if Flubber West is now jealous.

The HHB would still like a frontcourt security blanket to provide coverage in case of catastrophic injury loss, rebounding enhancement, and the occasional need to "instruct" Josh Smith in games.

We passed the hat around the offices here at the HHB headquarters and we can give the Hawks $300 towards one of those premium players mentioned. Just let us know, fellas.


Sky Is Blue, Grass is Green, Dept.

Josh Smith took the opportunity to mix it up with other young talents in Las Vegas and the results were as expected to anyone who has watched Smith play more than (5) games with the Hawks the last two seasons.

Turnovers, poor shooting, and a lack of fundamentals were a theme over the course of his stay there, as were the usual athletic big plays that Smith is capable of.

The issue is clear: Smith can choose to shape up his game to take the next step up in his career, or he can embrace and settle into what he is today: A talented big who can occasionally make the remarkable happen but never able to be consistent or technically sound enough to be among the top players in the league. All of which means to the Hawks that they have a 10 million dollar a year player who will only sometimes play to that level.

The HHB has been caught head nodding to music enough in traffic to elicit hysterical laughter in motorists around us---Lessons and groove tips can be sent directly to the Comments area.

Friday, July 24, 2009

Prepare for Joe Smith


Saturday Night UPDATE:
According to Sekou Smith, Solomon Jones is in fact heading to IND on a 2 year contract at the minimum, prompting this exchange between Smith and myself:

My question:

@sekousmith01 So what was the purpose of restricting Solo if they are just going to let him run for 2 years @ the minimum?

His response:

@THHB Good question. I'll have an item on the blog tomorrow where Solo explains his situation.

So I guess we'll stay tuned and all will be revealed.

Also, looks like we put the HHB Mojo on the Lakers---We had placed Lamar Odom in yellow based on his leanings toward the Lakers in many reports, but as of Saturday Night Yahoo Sports reports he was close to signing with the Heat. We are moving this race back to "Too Close Too Call."

(We rejoin yesterdays' blog--already in progress)

Well, we learned from our friends that Joe Smith is snacking with the front office again tonight, meaning the Hawks would seem to be serious about bringing in the age 34 year forward, considering this would be the second round of munchies with the team.

We already posted our thoughts on the matter here so we won't rehash them in this stream of consciouslessness now. That tempts us to wildly speculate that Smith was being offered what the going rate is for an older frontcourt guy--hopefully something along the lines of the 2 year, 6 million dollar contract agreed to by Chris Wilcox and the Pistons earlier in the offseason.

This would leave the Hawks enough to sign another slightly above replacement level frontcourt player, but the one we were eyeballing, former Hawk Theo Ratliff, was snapped up by the Spurs, which means it definitely would have been a good idea. Ratliff would have been able to provide some shot blocking off the bench, which was currently the occupation of restricted free agent Solomon Jones.

And speaking of the former Floridian, did anyone see that the Pacers might have been interested in the restricted free agent? We've even had some Indiana fans poking around the site, looking for nuggets of info regarding the "big" fella. We'll say this--we still don't agree with "locking him down" with the qualifier, but after observing the free agent landscape and Solo's numbers a little closer, it wouldn't hurt to have him back on the squad for another season--but he simply can't be counted on for extended minutes--he's a spot player at this point until his play proves otherwise. Oh, and "locking him up" would not be ideal until he's proven he's better than the replacement player.

Says in POR that Andre Miller will finally come on down as their replacement for Steve Blake, who always seemed better suited for role playing games anyway. Miller's contract is rumored to be almost the same as Bibby's (3 and 21). This means the Sixers join the Knicks as teams that are likely to be looking at now former Pacer PG Jamaal Tinsley. Tinsley has some sick assist rates, and though he can't shoot straight, it might not matter on either of those teams. Also, Memphis has taken the qualifier off of Hakim Warrick--presumably to make room for Allen Iverson. Both Warrick and Iverson are two of the higher rater free agents left to sign on our PER chart.

And since we've seen some more signings (Moon to Cleveland, Ratliff to the Spurs), it's time to update the Big Free Agent Board--please remember to follow the color coded maps and signs to recognize the teams that these fine gentlemen have selected. Here is the updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold; Attempted to highlight in the team's colors that the free agents choose--and as always, no wagering.)

David Lee (RFA)19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)18.77
Andre Miller18.71
Charlie Villanueva
18.64
Chris Anderson
18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA)
Leon Powe
Ben Gordon
17.20
17.20
17.02
Jason Kidd16.95
Hakim Warrick
16.91
Antonio McDyess16.63
Lamar Odom16.60
Brandon Bass16.49
Mike Bibby16.38
Drew Gooden16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA) 16.04
Shawn Marion16.02
Allen Iverson15.89
Ron Artest15.64
Trevor Ariza15.51
Grant Hill15.26
Rasheed Wallace14.91
Hedo Turkoglu14.82
Von Wafer14.79
RFM14.79
Anderson Varejao14.62
Rasho Nesterovic14.15
Zaza Pachulia14.14
Joe Smith13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)13.80
Shelden Williams13.78
Chris Wilcox13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)
Matt Barnes
Ben Wallace
13.10
12.60
12.18
Wally Szczerbiak12.18
Anthony Parker12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)
12.08
Robert Swift11.50
Theo Ratliff11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)10.77
Raef Lafrentz10.40
Channing Frye
10.09
Mario West (RFA)
Ime Udoka
10.00
9.57
Stromile Swift6.80
Malik Rose5.28


Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Raining on Parades

When Sekou Smith revealed that the Hawks were in pursuit of Joe Smith on Tuesday, it registered just above "dang" but below "yahoo" inside the walls of the HHB.

It's not that Joe Smith isn't a good player or even someone who wouldn't help the Hawks--it's just that with better options still available, it's settling a bit to get Smith now.

Younger, more productive players such as Drew Gooden and Leon Powe (yes, we know he's hurt) are still out there for the Hawks to bring in to address their rebounding and overall front court effectiveness.

Gooden provides some nice creativity in the post (though it's unclear whether that matters in Atlanta's offense) and Powe gives the energy and hustle that Woodson seems to enjoy in his frontcourt players (assumed again because they don't get to play much offense unless it's coming from 20+ feet from the basket).

Their stats, especially compared with Smith's, prove this out---Gooden and Powe's rebounding rates are higher, as is their PER. Both also get to the line considerably more than Smith, with Gooden getting 16.2% draw foul rate and Powe a staggering 27.8% to Joe Smith's comparitively pedestrian 9.4%.

Gooden is entering his Age 28 year; Powe his Age 26th. Smith is on his Age 34 season and has seen some slippage in his numbers, though his career has always been a bit of a roller coaster. We're sure we'll hear someone talk about Smith's veteran leadership and being a Proven Winner (trademark pending), but the HHB believes that there is no winning formula like production and finding the pieces that fit what your team lacks--and asking a 34 year old big man who has been in the L since he was 20 years old to be that might not be the best bang for the buck at this point.

Bottom line, while it's an improvement in outlook that the Hawks are looking at a player like Smith, and that he is interested in return, we would prefer that the team seek out Gooden and Powe first--younger, more long term and potentially still improving or able to maintain level better options that fill in some of the skills white space more completely than Smith does.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

The HHB Catches Up

Looks like we picked the right week to take a holiday on the farm.

In the Hawks World, we saw:


Josh Childress Returns to Greece

Sure, we can lament the fact that the Hawks almost had the bones of Bruce Bowen or Kurt Thomas---or both---but we just can't get worked up about the fact that Childress decided to go back to the greenery of Greece.

In the halls of the HHB HQ, we felt this was a sailed ship a year ago, when the team failed to recognize how productive Childress was and let him entertain offers from pastures that are free from NBA extradition. That the Hawks (and some fans, mind you) mused that Maurice Evans might be a less expensive match for Childress indicates the serious devaluing of the former #6 pick's skills and contributions.

We thought it strange at the time (and if you go back through our entries from that period, we were in full D-Nial mode) that Childress would take an overseas offer, given that the Hawks would hold his NBA rights as long as they posed a qualifying offer every offseason. The same frustration he felt in the summer of 2008 he will continue to feel every season unless some team knocks the socks off the Hawks with a sign and trade offer, Childress signs a tender and plays out the season, or the Hawks feel generous enough to not offer and let Josh go.

Being good businessmen, the Hawks have not just let him go--the NBA is hardly a place where you can be so noble to a mid-20's aged lottery pick who, by the way, can be very productive. And no team has reportedly offered a "gotta take it" deal either summer, unless you really have a thing for former defensive specialists.

So that leaves Childress deciding to either continue his European Vacation or hold his nose--play out the qualifier--and become a free agent the next season. If he had done this last season he would have made a couple million less in '08-'09, sure, but he would have been free to sign with anybody this offseason. If his dream is to have a long, successful career in the NBA, he is letting it drip away by staying away with every season. As it stands, he goes back through the same dance again in June 2010.


David Andersen Realizes His NBA Dream---In Houston

If Josh wants to know how long the Hawks may hold rights without doing anything, the most recent example can now be closed. David Andersen, who had been Hawks property since 2002 without ever coming over to Philips Arena will finally, at age 29, make it to the NBA thanks to the Hawks dealing the Aussie big man to Houston for some second round suds.

It's interesting that the Hawks finally made a move on Andersen, since it doesn't seem like a second rounder wouldn't have been offered in the past by another team, though we wouldn't know that for sure. Certainly we can understand Houston's interest, after Yao's injury and failing to get either Marcin Gortat or Zaza Pachulia.

What would entice the Hawks to make a move now as Andersen cost them no cap space to hold his rights? It might indicate, as Hoopinion mentioned soon after the deal, that the Hawks don't seem interested in a quality 10th man on the roster, else they might have brought him on themselves in addition to re-signing Pachulia. Rumor was it wouldn't take much more than 2-3 million to bring the big guy over.

Since the Hawks need more size, and have really since even before 2002, it's not entirely encouraging that this transaction occurred. It means that Hawks fans might have to get used to the idea of spending the MLE on 2 or 3 replacement level free agents vs. one above average player in the frontcourt, but hey, we'll stay somewhat optimistic until that times comes.

Hawks Summer League Highlights





Ok, Ok---There is a mini-camp going on--but when the highlights are of Coach Woodson "coaching up" Jeff Teague and Othello Hunter putting on a dunk show, it's probably pressing to look for real important stuff there. You can check out pictures and summaries from Micah over here. As nice as the Philips Practice Court is, we miss the opportunity to watch summer league games and overrate our young talent just like everybody else.

Imagine hearing that Teague scored (27) against the "Jazz" at the RMR---or that Hunter pulled down double digit boards in (16) minutes---it's our right to be overly excited about their play and the prospects for greatness heading into the season. Heck, we used to gush about the play of Dion Glover and DerMarr Johnson in the Shaw league for crying out loud--you know we would have hyped Garrett Siler blocking a shot against some D-leaguer in Vegas.

Alas, we'll just wait until the preseason camp---hopefully we'll have another big rebounder to watch at that point---and know if Marvin Williams signed the tender, got an extension, or took Terrence Morris' spot in Russia, leaving the Hawks with (2) refugees abroad.

Until then here is the updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold; Attempted to highlight in the team's colors that the free agents choose---who's your money on for the next to go?)

David Lee (RFA)19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)18.77
Andre Miller18.71
Charlie Villanueva
18.64
Chris Anderson
18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA)
Leon Powe
Ben Gordon
17.20
17.20
17.02
Jason Kidd16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)
16.91
Antonio McDyess16.63
Lamar Odom16.60
Brandon Bass16.49
Mike Bibby16.38
Drew Gooden16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA) 16.04
Shawn Marion16.02
Allen Iverson15.89
Ron Artest15.64
Trevor Ariza15.51
Grant Hill15.26
Rasheed Wallace14.91
Hedo Turkoglu14.82
Von Wafer14.79
RFM14.79
Anderson Varejao14.62
Rasho Nesterovic14.15
Zaza Pachulia14.14
Joe Smith13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)13.80
Shelden Williams13.78
Chris Wilcox13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)
Matt Barnes
Ben Wallace
13.10
12.60
12.18
Wally Szczerbiak12.18
Anthony Parker12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)
12.08
Robert Swift11.50
Theo Ratliff11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)10.77
Raef Lafrentz10.40
Channing Frye
10.09
Mario West (RFA)
Ime Udoka
10.00
9.57
Stromile Swift6.80
Malik Rose5.28

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Official HHB Updated Free Agent List

The Human Highlight Blog takes its show on vacation (Congratulations, Douds, Iowa!) and won't be back in full until July 20th. We're hoping to have some great news to gush about when we get back, but until then we'll leave you with the Official HHB Updated Free Agent List (now in fantastic Technicolor--brought to you by the good people at Globex!)

Here is the updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold; Attempted to highlight in the team's colors that the free agents choose--Hurry, your favorite might be gone soon--supplies are running out!)

David Lee (RFA)19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)18.77
Andre Miller18.71
Charlie Villanueva
18.64
Chris Anderson
18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA)
Leon Powe
Ben Gordon
17.20
17.20
17.02
Jason Kidd16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)
16.91
Antonio McDyess16.63
Lamar Odom16.60
Brandon Bass16.49
Mike Bibby16.38
Drew Gooden16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA) 16.04
Shawn Marion16.02
Allen Iverson15.89
Ron Artest15.64
Trevor Ariza15.51
Grant Hill15.26
Rasheed Wallace14.91
Hedo Turkoglu14.82
Von Wafer14.79
RFM14.79
Anderson Varejao14.62
Rasho Nesterovic14.15
Zaza Pachulia14.14
Joe Smith13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)13.80
Shelden Williams13.78
Chris Wilcox13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)
Matt Barnes
13.10
12.60
Wally Szczerbiak12.18
Anthony Parker12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)
12.08
Robert Swift11.50
Theo Ratliff11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)10.77
Raef Lafrentz10.40
Channing Frye
10.09
Mario West (RFA)
Ime Udoka
10.00
9.57
Stromile Swift6.80
Malik Rose5.28

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Updated Free Agent List

FRIDAY UPDATE: Multiple reports have the Magic signing Brandon Bass. David Aldridge of NBATV reports it's a 4 year, 18 million dollar deal. We have to ask Cleveland, are you feeling like you spent a tad too much on Anderson Varejao (6 years, 50 million) when two similar or better players (Bass, Pachulia) were signed for significantly less?

Here is the updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold; Attempted to highlight in the team's colors that the free agents choose--Pick your favorite and take him home! Not so fast, Portland!)

David Lee (RFA)19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)18.77
Andre Miller18.71
Charlie Villanueva
18.64
Chris Anderson
18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA)
Leon Powe
Ben Gordon
17.20
17.20
17.02
Jason Kidd16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)
16.91
Antonio McDyess16.63
Lamar Odom16.60
Brandon Bass16.49
Mike Bibby16.38
Drew Gooden16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA) 16.04
Shawn Marion16.02
Allen Iverson15.89
Ron Artest15.64
Trevor Ariza15.51
Grant Hill15.26
Rasheed Wallace14.91
Hedo Turkoglu14.82
Von Wafer14.79
RFM14.79
Anderson Varejao14.62
Rasho Nesterovic14.15
Zaza Pachulia14.14
Joe Smith13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)13.80
Shelden Williams13.78
Chris Wilcox13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)
Matt Barnes
13.10
12.60
Wally Szczerbiak12.18
Anthony Parker12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)
12.08
Robert Swift11.50
Theo Ratliff11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)10.77
Raef Lafrentz10.40
Channing Frye
10.09
Mario West (RFA)
Ime Udoka
10.00
9.57
Stromile Swift6.80
Malik Rose5.28

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Hawks Free Agency, Take One

UPDATE: According to Sekou Smith (you da man!), Zaza Pachulia will be back and richer than ever:

Pachulia, 25, spent the last four years with the Hawks on a $16 million deal. His new deal is believed to be for the same amount of years but with a significant raise, according to one of the sources familiar with the situation.
Considering Marcin Gortat is slated to pull a full MLE deal (approx 5yr/33mil), one might think a deal that is four years for Zaza, might be in the 20-22 million dollar range.

UPDATE 2: The article now says it's 4 years, 18 million---not really all that significant an increase, though the HHB would take 2 million and ask no questions.

(We now resume our previous post---already in progress)

Aaand--action!

Today's the day.

It's the day when rumor become reality, when verbals go written, and a player's word become their bond, legally. For the Hawks it means the official beginning to one of their busier free agency seasons in recent years.

The Hawks have already reached an "oral agreement" for a 3 year, 18 million dollar deal for Mike Bibby. (Thank you, Sekou!)

The HHB signs off on this move as we discussed in an eye-popping table yesterday. For this offense, flawed as we may believe it is, Bibby is a really good fit. His ability to run the team, determine tempo, and understand where the ball should go meshes well with his ability to hit the long ball. His defense is not good, that's for sure, but given the alternative of not having anybody else who can do the things that Mike does, we're sure glad to have him back.

Bibby's signing might mean the end of the RFM era in Atlanta, but we don't know for sure. Murray was on his way to Russia when obtained for one million dollars last summer, and while we were sure his consistent, productive season (a near 15 PER) was going to land him a multi year deal somewhere, if not ATL, we haven't heard his name mentioned in many discussions around the league and in the media corners. Would or should the Hawks crowd the backcourt even more should Murray be availble for the same bargain basement price? His own history suggests last season was a needle in his career haystack--if there are fewer minutes would he go back to being wildly inconsistent? We would bet that Coach Woodson would welcome the veteran back, even with Jamal Crawford on board with a returning Bibby and Joe Johnson, but it would mean a season of non-playing for first round pick Jeff Teague, unless injury reared its head in front of him. After the non-playing of Acie Law, we're not pro on keeping more first rounders on the bench for long.

The only solution we could get behind that would potentially keep Teague on the bench would be the return of Josh Childress to the Hawks. Would Childress risk staying in ATL if the Hawks match an offer sheet? We would really hope so, considering his productivity level was better every season as a Hawk and he was a good rebounder, especially offensively for a guard. But considering all the ill will of the past year, we're not going to hold our breath on this one---well, not for long anyway.

We have written about Zaza and the Hawks need to address the serious rebounding void there is on the team even with Pachulia and Al Horford on the roster. Not being able to resign Zaza means the Hawks have to bring (2) more big men in, not only replace the big fella. Zaza does two things really well statistically, as best we can tell---he gets to the free throw line and he can offensively rebound. He is a terrific backup center, capable of filling in on those nights when Horford is down or in foul trouble.

For the Hawks to be serious about moving forward next year while doing the same things they did last year, another big man must be procured using the MLE. We have already espoused the virtues of our two top targets, Antonio McDyess and Drew Gooden, as they would certainly address the rebounding woes from the power forward position, a place where the starter, Josh Smith, is below average for his position in rebounding rates. Those veterans could do a lot of good to mentor Smith on hustle and determination, especially McDyess, who by all accounts in Detroit is a consummate professional and whose attitude would continue to do good in the changing locker room. That could be a reason the Pistons are determined to get McDyess back and let Rasheed Wallace go to Boston. It would likely take a bold offer by the Hawks to bring him into the ATL.

Gooden seems like he's been around forever but is actually just entering his Age 28 season and has habitually been among the consistent rebounders in the league. It may not take as big a package to land him as it would McDyess because Gooden may be undervalued due to playing on many teams, having weird facial (and neckal) hair, and because rebounding simply isn't as valued an attribute as it should be.

Marvin Williams likely won't get much attention in the restricted market because teams figure the Hawks will match any reasonable offer for the forward. Folks have benchmarked Charlie Villanueva's rumored 5 year, 35-40 million deal as a ruler for a Marvin contract. Marvin has improved every season and has shown scoring ability, especially when Joe Johnson was sidelined, and he was second on the team in foul drawing rate (Pachulia). His good nature, hard work ethic, and abilities make the case that the Hawks would likely match an offer stand up. The qualifying offer is over 7 million dollars anyway--Marvin could sign it and take his chances next season as an unrestricted free agent.

All of which is to say that tomorrow officially gets the boat launched and away from the dock. We will see who is truly targeting whom and what the Hawks will do. Resigning Bibby is a good start, but not addressing the obvious rebounding deficits would be a costly mistake, especially should Pachulia be allowed to leave.

The HHB has the party favors and the Official Travelling Low Def Viewing Center ready for action--hopefully the good guys will oblige. Free agent thoughts, chips, and dip can be brought into the Comments Area.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

A (Statistical) Truth About Mike Bibby

As we have looked closer at the potential of a Mike Bibby resigning, we have become more sure that Bibby services need to be retained. Not only was Bibby extremely helpful in bringing it all together for the Hawks the past two seasons, but he fits an increasingly hard to find talent set in the market right now, a true facilitator who can shoot. Reports on Monday out of Portland were that the Blazers may be down on Andre Miller due to his lack of killer J, the skill of which Mr. Bibby excels.

Also, though we not the most statistical here at the HHB, we have brought in a team of summer interns that have helped us crunch the numbers and revealed a very interesting statistic about Mike Bibby's season last year--consider:

We ran certain numbers from Bibby's 2008-2009 season (Stats Courtesy of Basketball Reference-go sponsor a page today!), PER, Minutes Played, Assist Rate, and Effective FG percentage. We also filtered by Position, Age, and Years in the League. What we found is that only (12) times since the 1989-90 season a player has done what Mike Bibby did in those (4) categories.

Totals Shooting
Rk Player Season Age Tm Lg G MP FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS FG% 3P% FT% PER eFG% AST%
1 Magic Johnson 1989-90 30 LAL NBA 79 2937 546 1138 106 276 567 637 128 394 522 907 132 34 289 167 1765 .480 .384 .890 26.6 .526 45.5
2 Magic Johnson 1990-91 31 LAL NBA 79 2933 466 976 80 250 519 573 105 446 551 989 102 17 314 150 1531 .477 .320 .906 25.1 .518 49.3
3 Steve Nash 2006-07 32 PHO NBA 76 2682 517 971 156 343 222 247 30 239 269 884 57 6 287 117 1412 .532 .455 .899 23.8 .613 50.1
4 Chauncey Billups 2007-08 31 DET NBA 78 2522 393 877 137 342 401 437 42 170 212 529 101 17 160 130 1324 .448 .401 .918 23.6 .526 34.7
5 John Stockton 1994-95 32 UTA NBA 82 2867 429 791 102 227 246 306 57 194 251 1011 194 22 267 215 1206 .542 .449 .804 23.3 .607 52.6
6 John Stockton 1996-97 34 UTA NBA 82 2896 416 759 76 180 275 325 45 183 228 860 166 15 248 194 1183 .548 .422 .846 22.1 .598 46.0
7 John Stockton 1995-96 33 UTA NBA 82 2915 440 818 95 225 234 282 54 172 226 916 140 15 246 207 1209 .538 .422 .830 21.9 .596 49.1
8 John Stockton 2001-02 39 UTA NBA 82 2566 401 775 25 78 275 321 59 204 263 674 152 24 208 209 1102 .517 .321 .857 21.9 .534 46.3
9 Steve Nash 2007-08 33 PHO NBA 81 2780 485 962 179 381 222 245 28 254 282 898 53 5 295 113 1371 .504 .470 .906 21.1 .597 47.3
10 Steve Nash 2008-09 34 PHO NBA 74 2484 428 851 108 246 196 210 19 204 223 717 55 10 248 108 1160 .503 .439 .933 19.5 .566 42.4
11 Jason Kidd 2008-09 35 DAL NBA 81 2886 257 618 131 323 86 105 85 415 500 702 160 39 185 168 731 .416 .406 .819 16.9 .522 34.7
12 Mike Bibby 2008-09 30 ATL NBA 79 2740 437 1005 167 428 135 171 38 240 278 392 98 11 128 145 1176 .435 .390 .789 16.3 .518 24.2

The goal of this exercise was to see the following:

1. Was there anything unique about the season Bibby had last year?
2. Is it easily repeatable?
3. Was this an outlier season for Bibby?

We chose PER, Assist Rate, Minutes Played and Effective Field Goal percentage because we felt it best captured what the point guard position on the Hawks was looking for: A facilitator who can shoot, play a lot of minutes (though we only used 30MPG * 82 as the measure here, Bibby played over 36 MPG last season--Billips was the only player who wouldn't have made the cut @ 36 MPG), and overall offensive effectiveness.

We chose the age (30) and years in the league (11) to gauge how common it is to do this later in one's career, effecting repeatability.

You're talking the likes of Steve Nash, John Stockton, and Magic Johnson here. There's Jason Kidd with last season like Bibby and two seasons ago Chauncey Billups.

We wanted to check if this was an outlier season, so we stretched the criteria to include any age of season and we found that this is Bibby's only season realizing all of these statistical thresholds at once. Being that the .518 EFG was a career high, we dialed it back slightly to .500 and found three other seasons. Bibby had a total of (4) out of the 142 occurrences (at the .500 eFG) since the 1981-1982 season. Not too shabby.

So, it seems that Bibby's season is somewhat unique in that it occurs less than an average of (5) times a season in the NBA among guards. We also saw that the season was not an aberration for Bibby, as he has dotted his (11) seasons with (4) of his own entries.

Looking at this and understanding his offensive value to the team, and given there are no true facilitators on the roster or elsewhere in free agency that can help spread the floor when the other isolators are doing their thing in the Hawks "offense", it seems a good thing to do to bring Bibby back. And consider, as we've written before, that Kidd's speculated 3 year, 25 million dollar deal is the high watermark for any Bibby deal--most believe it will come in below Kidd and above the MLE, which would put it in the 3 year, 20 million range.

We just wanted to attempt to put some statistical context around what Bibby provided last season and we feel that was accomplished by this exercise. Whether Bibby can continue that level of output over the next three years is debatable, but the HHB feels as though what Bibby does provide is unique in the NBA and needed for what the Hawks do and we welcome the resigning.

Now go make it happen.

Link for the search: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... der_by=per

UPDATE: According to Sekou Smith, they did make it happen! A reported 3 years and 18 million according to Smith and two sources familiar with the situation.

Regarding Zaza

We still await the morning of the 8th, where we will see what actually happens when pen moves onto paper all across the NBA.

But we felt compelled to comment about Zaza Pachulia, about whom Sekou Smith on Twitter (@sekousmith01) and republished @ Hoopinion said the Hawks made "their case" to the unrestricted free agent big man Monday afternoon.

That the Hawks made their case sounds more like explanation that proposition, but maybe that's just an odd choice of words for the excellent beat writer Smith. However after appearing on The Bill Shanks Show on Monday, Smith, Shanks, and company sounded less than enthusiastic regarding the odds of Zaza returning to the Hawks next season.

It would make sense, considering the needs in Houston and Orlando that Pachulia would be in demand. Also, given the money that Marcin Gortat and Glen Davis are set to be offered by the Mavs and Spurs respectively, close to full MLE (5 and 30-33 million) if reports are to be correct, it might be fiscally prudent to let Pachulia mosey to those significantly green pastures.

However, if Pachulia should walk, it's important that the Hawks address his absence with not just David Andersen as discussed in our previous entry, but with an additional big man as well, giving the Hawks a Plus One in the big man category. Since the Hawks have been mired near the bottom half of the league in rebounding rates despite having a terrific offensive rebounder in Pachulia and a top 15 defensive rebounder in Horford, it makes sense that this is an area that would have to be addressed.

In regards to signing both Andersen and another big man (McDyess and Gooden would be our first two options) the question came up regarding whether we had the cap space to sign both. The Hawks, with their cap holds for their free agents (Bibby, Childress, Williams) along with their current commitments are expected to be over the cap, meaning that they would need to and could use the Mid-Level Exception (MLE) to sign McDyess or Gooden (see how the HHB is trying to creep those names). As for Andersen, the Hawks still retain his draft rights and he carries a zero dollar cap value from being a second round pick, so the Hawks can sign him as they would this year's second round pick.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

What Hawks Fans Should Watch For

As the actual Free Agency Week (you know, when people can actually sign and teams can finally relax) comes into being, let's quickly review what Hawks fans should be watching for, according to the last few days of reports:

Jason Kidd, who was being sought after by, in large part, the Knicks and Mavericks, has apparently decided to take more of Mark Cuban's money and remain in Dallas. In addition to being the best offer, it also allows Kidd to perform in an offense and with teammates that best suit him at this time in his career. The terms of Kidd's contract are widely reported to being in the 3 year, 25 million+ range.

This impacts Hawks free agent PG Mike Bibby, who the Philadelphia Inquirer noted was intent on staying a Hawk over the weekend. Kidd's contract (terms and length) should serve as a high-end benchmark for the 31 year old PG, slated for his 12th season in the league. Though, as Sekou Smith reported over the weekend, a deal is not finalized, it makes sense that Bibby should stay where he likely will be the best paid, has had good success, and fits in well.

Also being reported is that this is finally the year that David Andersen realizes his dream of playing in the NBA. Sekou reported this as a probability last week, and over the weekend reports like this started finding its way into Bird Watchers' view. (We first saw it referenced over at Peachtree Hoops) . The highlight (for those who don't want to translate):

The Atlanta Hawks, who chose the number 37 in the 2002 draft, require players inside as they are about to lose Zaza patchouli, which has become a free agent.

"David is an option, as has every summer, to break his contract if it receives an offer from the NBA before July 15. I can not say anything more," said his agent, Kenny Grant, a "World Sports" .The Australian pivot Hawks will leave if the offer at least a contract similar to that charged in the Regal Barcelona: 2 million euros per season.


That's about 2.8 million dollars to match what Andersen currently earns over there. The July 15th deadline should mean that we may find out this week if Andersen is truly on his way over to play for the Hawks.

BTW, it's interesting (at least to the basketball nerds here at the HHB) that at the bottom of the article it talks about replacing Andersen there with Terrence Morris, who is done with his team in Russia. Morris was a selected by the Hawks in the 2nd round in 2001, and then was traded on draft night to the Houston Rockets for a future 1st rounder (which the Hawks in turn traded to SAC for the draft rights to Dan Dickau in 2002).

As was reported last week, Andersen was thought to be a fallback in case Zaza Pachulia was set to depart the Nest. Though no reports have contained the details of deals like Rasheed Wallace or Marcin Gortat, there is no question that Pachulia has suitors. Being unrestricted, Zaza can go wherever there is money and, given teams that were jilted by Gortat and Wallace still have their exceptions, Zaza may be finding the greener pastures in cities like Houston or Orlando, for starters.

That July 15th deadline is also in place for Josh Childress, who had a well publicized meeting in Milwaukee, but little other public detail. Over the course of this free agent week, we'll likely know if Childress has indeed opted out of his deal in Greece to come back to the NBA, and he won't opt out of that deal without something concrete here in the States.

It remains to be seen if the re-signing of Bibby does indeed mean the end of the short, but productive, RFM era in the ATL. Long thought that the Hawks would keep one or the other after the arrival of Jamal Crawford and the first round selection of Jeff Teague, keeping Bibby could Flip the switch off for the Hawks. It's important to remember, however, that the then 6-yr vet guard was headed to Russia with no better offers last season before believer-Rick Sund gave him a million dollar deal to come aboard the Hawks. One would think Murray's solid, even performance this season as the Hawks top reserve would open some other doors, but teams may still be wary of his past inconsistency.

Alas, this only contains folks we currently have---the natural reaction is to ask, "what about the Hawks getting in on some of these other names floating around?" For starters, the names right now out there are the higher dollar names, and those the Hawks would have to renounce the right to their own free agents to be able to sign, which the Hawks obviously haven't been interested in doing (it would include Bibby and Marvin, as well as Chill, Zaza, or some combination of any or all). So it really leaves the Hawks with their full mid-level exception and there are still some names that would good to use that on---they're just not the names that are out there in full force at this time. It does makes sense to wait for the smoke to clear and money to be spent before you start showing your hand.

Our bet? When the signings start and some of the names we've seen come off the free agent board, the Hawks will be in the mix for one of the second or third tier free agents. We would love to see Antonio McDyess or Drew Gooden get serious consideration from the Hawks given that they address a major weakness for the team last season---rebounding.

The HHB takes its show on the road to the ATL this week, so buckle up Atlanta! Complaints and traffic violations can be mailed directly to the Comments Area.

Saturday, July 4, 2009

Reports: Bibby To Stay a Hawk

Free agency has been still thus far for Bird Watchers, but news is coming out that the Hawks are in the lead for retaining PG Mike Bibby for a reported (3) more seasons.

Both the Philadelphia Inquirer and Yahoo Sports have reported that Bibby turned down overtures from the Sixers, who are interested in replacing their own FA PG Andre Miller.

One of the reports had Bibby being offered a 1-yr deal by PHL, but that ATL had an edge by offering a 3-yr deal. Another had the Sixers asking about Bibby's interests and was told that Bibby was intent on staying a Hawk.

This would be good news for the Hawks in the short team considering Bibby's departure would leave no true point guards on the roster. His defensive liabilities have been well documented as have his offensive strongpoints. The acquisitions of Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague could be used to limit Bibby's minutes and maximize his effectiveness.

There have been no reports as to the potential terms of a deal, but one has to look at the 3 yr, 24 million dollar offer Mavericks PG Jason Kidd has been alleged to have been offered by both the Knicks and Mavericks as a guideline and ruler for a potential Bibby deal.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Free Agency: Day 2

The only Hawks news came from Sekou Smith, who was tracking the hows and whys of Josh Chilldress' visit to Milwaukee. The Hawks say they'll match anything MLE and less, and with Childress perhaps not wanting to take a chance of having to be in Atlanta, he might head back to Greece if he doesn't get a deal the Hawks won't likely match or a sign/trade.

The Hawks should become more active once some of these front line free agents find homes, leaving the next tier, glamour-wise--not necessarily production wise--, for the Hawks to deal with, including their own free agents, who have had to wait their turn as well.


What we learned on Thursday:


Ron Artest/Trevor Ariza

Artest, despite the emtpy protests of his agent, did indeed leave Houston, not for Shaq and the King in Cleve-land, but to help Kobe and Pau try to repeat in LA. We're not sold on the big win boost that the Lakers are already being ordained with for next season by replacing Ariza w/Artest. Artest hasn't played more than 70 games since 2003-04 and never a full season, while Ariza played every game last year. And while Artest has been more productive than Ariza to a small degree last season, it remains to be seen if Artest continues to decline and Ariza continues to improve, especially if it's over the same (5) years.

Hedo Turkoglu

He is still on track for Portland, though Ric Bucher reported Thursday night that Turk's wife liked the city of Toronto and that could play a factor in Hedo's decision. Our bet is that, if Kevin Pritchard wants Turk for the 5 and 50 that's being discussed, he'll find a way to get him into a Blazer.

Marcin Gortat

Gortat has reportedly decided to sign his full MLE offer sheet with the Dallas Mavericks. The Magic will be able to match or work out a sign and trade, but it got many free agent watchers talking about the old Jon Koncak offer sheet the Pistons signed before the 1989-90 season, which of course, the Hawks matched. The full MLE should be something in the order of 5 years, 33 million dollars.

Jason Kidd

Kidd has discussed a 3 year offer from the Knicks, which is stunning considering they have been playing the 2010 card (otherwise known "Waiting for LeBron) and any sort of infringement on the cap space was heretofor thought of as being taboo. The HHB still expects Kidd to stay in DAL, where he can continue to play with Dirk and JT, but it might be interesting if he and the Knicks think that having him in the Big Apple could help in luring the King to the Knicks.

Rasheed Wallace

Once thought to be a done deal to the Celtics (might still be), the San Antonio Spurs popped in and seemed poised to offer as much as the C's. The Celtics on Thursday rolled out the red carpet (may not actually be red) for Rasheed.

Here is the updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold; Attempted to highlight in the team's colors that the free agents choose---fancy!)
Free Agents (restricted)PER
David Lee (RFA)19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)18.77
Andre Miller18.71
Charlie Villanueva
18.64
Chris Anderson
18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA)
Ben Gordon
17.20
17.02
Jason Kidd16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)
16.91
Antonio McDyess16.63
Lamar Odom16.60
Brandon Bass16.49
Mike Bibby16.38
Drew Gooden16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA) 16.04
Shawn Marion16.02
Allen Iverson15.89
Ron Artest15.64
Trevor Ariza15.51
Grant Hill15.26
Rasheed Wallace14.91
Hedo Turkoglu14.82
Von Wafer14.79
RFM14.79
Anderson Varajao14.62
Rasho Nesterovic14.15
Zaza Pachulia14.14
Joe Smith13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)13.80
Shelden Williams13.78
Chris Wilcox13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)13.10
Wally Szczerbiak12.18
Anthony Parker12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)
12.08
Robert Swift11.50
Theo Ratliff11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)10.77
Raef Lafrentz10.40
Channing Frye
10.09
Mario West (RFA)
Ime Udoka
10.00
9.57
Stromile Swift6.80
Malik Rose5.28