Free Agency: Day 1

The Free Agent period has started out with a public bang for some clubs---but not so fast for Hawks fans.

It shouldn't come as a surprise--as the Hawks, with their current contracts and cap holds for unrestricted and restricted free agents, are more than up against the cap. This leaves only trades and the full mid-level exception for the Hawks to work with, as well as signing their own free agents.

When a good beat writer like Sekou Smith is left with vague blind items on Twitter and nothing more, there must not be much information to work with. We should expect to see action heat up as the few teams that have money spend it, leaving the rest of the mid-level exception dwellers and sign and trade partners to dance.

What we learned on Wednesday:

The Detroit Pistons don't mess around. Joe Dumars went 2 for 2 in his quest to spend his loot, opening the bank for Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva to the tune of a combined 10 years and 90 million dollars. Gordon (5/55) and Villanueva (5/35) can now be put in the places where Allen Iverson (Bobcats?) and Rasheed Wallace (Celtics?) used to reside, making it a younger, more effective combination at this stage in all their careers. Gordon will come off the bench to begin the season, vowing to be a "super bench" player. The superscorer position off the bench that Gordon will be in DET could become the new glamour position in the NBA.

They are also looking for a coach, and the HHB is speculating that, should Joe Dumars be able to deal either Tayshaun Prince or Rip Hamilton this season, they could set the stage for bringing in Chris Bosh next offseason by bringing in former Raptor coach Sam Mitchell. Thanks to @RapsFan for confirming the positive relationship between the two yesterday.

It looks like Portland has settled on Hedo Turkoglu and willing to fulfill his 5 and 50 desires. The fit is better in POR than in TOR, the other potential stop, in that Turk provides a piece that was missing for the Blazers, where as TOR has more than one to fill that cap number with.

Jason Kidd looks like he has Dallas' attention as they stepped into New York where Kidd was due to visit the Knicks and allegedly offered a 3 year, 24 million dollar deal, which is in line what we had mentioned earlier about a Sam Cassell in '05 offer---but Kidd seems to be hedging, feeling he is worth more. He might be able to score a bigger per year payday in a one year deal, but the HHB doesn't think he's going to get more than that from anybody else, including the Knicks who can only offer the mid-level without a sign/trade and likely don't want to mess with the LeBron cap space of 2010.

Dallas also supposedly offered center Marcin Gortat a max mid-level deal and is in competition with Houston (who is also supposed to have offered Gortat that compensation to fill in for Yao) and any other team looking for center help (hellooo---Atlanta).

Gortat got love from the Texas teams and also from ESPN's John Hollinger, who included the soon-to-be former Orlando center on his list of Best Under the Radar free agents. He must have written the piece before the two teams set up tents in front on Marcin's domicile, ready to offer all they could to get him. Also on that list was Drew Gooden, whom we have been touting in this space as a good fit for the Hawks given that he can create in the post, rebounds very well, and only (27). He's a bit of an afterthought (hence his inclusion on John's list) and the Hawks would do well to pursue we think.

We'll see what happens with other veteran point guards like Andre Miller, who Portland was also interested in, but we think they will have to work out a trade since Turk is taking the free agent cash. Mike Bibby has not been mentioned, as he is likely down people's list, but he could get undervalued as he was instrumental in turning the Hawks into a playoff team and had one of his best years shooting the 3. Could have a hard time getting a better deal than in Atlanta.

We wrote yesterday that the Jazz would have a tough decision regarding Paul Millsap, considering the opt-ins of Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. The Jazz are in the cap stratosphere right now, even without Millsap, but may be looking to lock him in anyway, hoping to build beyond next season when Okur and Boozer are expected to leave. The other team mentioned in the Millsap chase is Oklahoma City, who might turn to Andreson Varejao if Utah does indeed hang onto Millsap.

Late in the evening, everyone starting talking about Ron Artest heading out to Cleveland to join LeBron James and his Merry Men. Since CLE can only offer the mid-level, we thought this might be little more than interesting rumor--and then Ron posted this message on his Twitter page:

THANKS ALOT HOUSTON.:) I HAD ALOT OF FUN:)

UPDATE: This from ESPN.com

A message attributed to Ron Artest ("THANKS A LOT HOUSTON :) I HAD A LOT OF FUN.") appeared on Twitter late Wednesday. Artest's agent, David Bauman, told the Houston Chronicle that the message was sent by an imposter.

"That is not Ron's account," Bauman said. "That's what happens with the so-called new media."

Now on Twitter they have something called a Verified Account which attempts to eliminate imposters. Artest's account is Verified as Artest, but it may not have been Ron tweeting.


Finally, buck up Hawks fans--even if the first day left you searching for any action from the Nest, at least you are not the Memphis Grizzlies. First, rumor has it that the owner, Michael Heisley put the kabosh on a proposed 5 year, 60 million dollar offer to Knicks restricted free agent David Lee. Then, they did go ahead and deal recently "acquired" Quentin Richardson to the Clippers for Zach Randolph. It's a bad trade when an entire fan base and writers say that the Clippers found a "sucker" and Bill Simmons says all is forgiven to Mike Dunleavy for the deal. Randolph gets paid 16 and 17 million for the next two season and Richardson's approx 9 million dollar deal expires after this season. Randolph is still very productive (19.6 PER), but is the kind of talent/personality that teams can't seem to unload fast enough. The HHB remembers how it feels @the bottom and we salute the Memphis fans who do go to the games and hope for the best.

Here is an updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold) and will be updated regularly (And attempted to highlight in the team's colors that the free agents choose---fancy!)

Free Agents (restricted)	PER
David Lee (RFA)	19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)	18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)	18.77
Andre Miller	18.71
Charlie Villanueva	18.64
Chris Anderson	18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)	17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA) Ben Gordon	17.20 17.02
Jason Kidd	16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)	16.91
Antonio McDyess	16.63
Lamar Odom	16.60
Brandon Bass	16.49
Mike Bibby	16.38
Drew Gooden	16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA)	16.04
Shawn Marion	16.02
Allen Iverson	15.89
Ron Artest	15.64
Trevor Ariza	15.51
Grant Hill	15.26
Rasheed Wallace	14.91
Hedo Turkoglu	14.82
Von Wafer	14.79
RFM	14.79
Anderson Varajao	14.62
Rasho Nesterovic	14.15
Zaza Pachulia	14.14
Joe Smith	13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)	13.80
Shelden Williams	13.78
Chris Wilcox	13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)	13.10
Wally Szczerbiak	12.18
Anthony Parker	12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)	12.08
Robert Swift	11.50
Theo Ratliff	11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)	10.77
Raef Lafrentz	10.40
Channing Frye	10.09
Mario West (RFA) Ime Udoka	10.00 9.57
Stromile Swift	6.80
Malik Rose	5.28

Free Agency: Go Time

Well, the votes are in--and the Hawks have elected to tender Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Solomon Jones, and Mario West as presented here earlier in the day. This leaves Thomas Gardner and Othello Hunter as unrestricted free agents.

Marvin's tendering was no surprise--the team definitely wants to control things while they decide whether to extend/match him, trade him, or let him sign and play out his tender, leaving him unrestricted next season.

The Josh Childress move was also expected, as they would like to get something for him if he wants to rejoin the NBA and he costs them nothing (either cap or otherwise) if he plays overseas again next season.

What was less expected were the tenders of Solomon Jones and Mario West. Under CBA rules, the Hawks had to present a contract for a million dollars to each of them, above the approximate 770K they played for last season. That the Hawks felt so compelled to grant this raise and not let them take their chances as unrestricted free agents was surprising, given that their production was sub-par by any statistical measurement. It already hurts to have good guy Mo Evans getting paid 2.5 million for his less than average statistical achievements (PER 11.1), but to grant .6 million extra in cap space to two guys who the HHB believes would have a hard time finding a roster spot elsewhere, much less more than the minimum grinds the salary cap gears even more. If we were Jones and West, we'd sign those tenders immediately--before the Hawks changed their minds--but the HHB has been wayyy wrong before.

What else we learned on Tuesday:

We learned that Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur are not simply dumb jocks---they took their 12.3 and 9.0 million respectively and decided to stay put for one more year--until the cap friendly Summer of 2010. This puts the Jazz precariously close to luxury tax territory and having to make a tough choice on their own restricted free agent, Paul Millsap.

Our buddy, Ric Bucher, was kind to the Hawks today (Insider required) as he listed the ATL as potential fits for free agents Ben Gordon and Anderson Varejao, who opted out of his contract today and become a free agent. We had to laugh and agree with Bucher's assessment of Gordon as a fit for the Hawks, since they are stockpiling isolation scorers in Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and first round pick Jeff Teague, of whom the HHB has likened to Gordon in style and scoring. The Hawks won't get him since after all the Hawks own free agents and Teague is signed, there will likely be nothing more than the exception to work with, and that won't get it for Gordon, even if the Hawks were interested.

Varejao is a classic overstated role player who dipped in rebounding rate last season. He's a mid-level guy who sounds like he believes he is much more like Carlos Boozer. He's not.

Looks like Jason Kidd is going to make a date with the New York Knicks in an attempt to get the Dallas Mavericks jealous and pay him. He's a better fit with Dallas due to Dirk and JT and the Dallas offense than in New York but we'd sure like a point guard like him in Atlanta.

An interesting player that will be available as a potential Zaza replacement is Orlando's Marcin Gortat, who was very productive in a backup role behind Dwight Howard. His rebounding rates are similar to Pachulia, but his shot blocking rate is far higher, which always enthuses the HHB galleries. It remains to be seen if the lesser experienced Gortat receives less lucrative offers than Zaza, but we would like to see another shot blocker up front--should almost be a pre-requisite of the center position.

Related to free agency, Detroit ran Michael Curry out after one season as head coach, ostensibly to be able to sell the team better to free agents (seems odd to create chaos to ensure stability). Debating whether he deserved to go in light of GM Joe Dumars (isn't it obvious the Pistons are about him and no coach) ripping out Chauncey Billups, bringing in Allen Iverson, and alienating Rip Hamilton is irrelevant---don't you think Mike Woodson is happy he chose Atlanta instead of "waiting his turn" in Detroit?

As Dominique once told the HHB, that's why he'd never coach. He said "Coaches come and go--and the executives stay." So true.


Here is an updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold) and will be updated regularly:

Free Agents (restricted)	PER
David Lee (RFA)	19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)	18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)	18.77
Andre Miller	18.71
Charlie Villanueva	18.64
Chris Anderson	18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)	17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA) Ben Gordon	17.20 17.02
Jason Kidd	16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)	16.91
Antonio McDyess	16.63
Lamar Odom	16.60
Brandon Bass	16.49
Mike Bibby	16.38
Drew Gooden	16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA)	16.04
Shawn Marion	16.02
Allen Iverson	15.89
Ron Artest	15.64
Trevor Ariza	15.51
Grant Hill	15.26
Rasheed Wallace	14.91
Hedo Turkoglu	14.82
Von Wafer	14.79
RFM	14.79
Anderson Varajao	14.62
Rasho Nesterovic	14.15
Zaza Pachulia	14.14
Joe Smith	13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)	13.80
Shelden Williams	13.78
Chris Wilcox	13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)	13.10
Wally Szczerbiak	12.18
Anthony Parker	12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)	12.08
Robert Swift	11.50
Theo Ratliff	11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)	10.77
Raef Lafrentz	10.40
Channing Frye	10.09
Mario West (RFA) Ime Udoka	10.00 9.57
Stromile Swift	6.80
Malik Rose	5.28

Hawks Restricted/Unrestricted Player Update

Unofficially, the Hawks have tendered a qualifying offer to the following players:

Marvin Williams
Josh Childress
Mario West
Solomon Jones

This makes them restricted free agents and will carry a cap number until they are signed and gives the team the right of first refusal.

This means that Othello Hunter and Thomas Gardner have not received those offers and will now be unrestricted free agents, free to run, and run, and run to the team of their choice---with no way for the Hawks to stop them.

The Hawks will, in both cases, have the ability to initiate a sign and trade---which means the Hawks will also hold a cap number on these players until they are signed. If the team wants to free themselves of that cap number, they must renounce the rights to those players and the Bird rights that go with them.

This is also the case with their current unrestricted free agents (Zaza Pachulia, Mike Bibby, and Ronald "Flip" Murray).

We will update when we go final on the list and we thank @atlanta_hawks for the update!

Free Agency, Day (Minus) 1

The free agent discussion seems to have heated up all around the way, and the HHB was made aware of a couple of omissions from yesterday's free agent list. The list has been updated and will be kept up/tweaked along the way.

Free agency discussions begin legally among NBA teams and players Wednesday (that's July 1st for the calendar impaired) and Tuesday is the deadline for teams to tender qualifying offers to their restricted free agents.

What we learned Monday:

The headline, to the surprise of former Raptors GM Rob Babcock, was that Charlie Villanueva was not tendered by the Milwaukee Bucks, thereby leaving him open for signing elsewhere. Sekou Smith immediately informed the Twitter watchers (he's @sekousmith01, so follow him already) that CV31 was indeed on the Hawks radar, but we will expect that Charles will have a few places to choose from, and most of them playoff teams. With @CV31 so prevalent on Twitter, fans of every team has started campaigns to recruit the free agent elect to their town.

The Bucks did, however, tender Villanueva's soon-to-be former Buck-mate, Ramon Sessions, meaning that they retain the right of first refusal on the young PG. The HHB doubts you'll see a quick offer to Sessions, as teams are likely going to interpret the non-tender of CV31 and the opposite on Sessions to indicate they will match, much like the free agency of Josh Smith last summer. Teams don't want to tie up that money while the Bucks decide whether or not to match (up to seven days). Now, that doesn't mean that Sessions' camp won't say that the Bucks won't match, as they will want to try to get an offer when there are more teams in the mix for his service. Ah, we're so cynical here.

Isn't it nice when you see a front office quickly identifying what's needed and moving towards that goal? That's what we see in Portland's front office, as they have identified that what they need is a veteran upgrade at the point guard position. Jason Kidd and Andre Miller are the two names that have immediately jumped into the discussion. Smart, verrry smart.

We also heard that Toronto is interested in fulfilling the 5 year, 50 million dollar fantasies of Hedo Turkoglu. This might make sense if the Raptors were a player away and they knew Chris Bosh were staying, but signing Hedo to a 5 year deal going into his Age 30 season doesn't make a lot of sense in their current position.

As for the fits for the Hawks, while CV31 has already been identified by Sekou, we believe that Drew Gooden might be a better fit for the Hawks. We spoke highly of Gooden's production in our initial look at the free agents and now ESPN's Ric Bucher listed Gooden as a Top 20 free agent target (Insider req) and suggested that Gooden is "an above-average rebounder and can create shots for himself on the block" and suited for a team that needs a player who can "provide points when the offense bogs down and jumpers are not falling." Hello---that's a job listing for the Hawks right there. Now Bucher didn't list the Hawks as good fit for the forward, to which we objected with following Twitter salvo:

@RicBucher You've got to add the Hawks for Drew Gooden. A good rebounder who provides post offense when the shots aren't falling? Perfect.

to which Bucher graciously responded:

RicBucher@THHB Not a bad point. I just know Atl's not spending any $. 1M factors in the FA game. Tried to consider as many as I could.

Ouch--the truth (and our reputation) hurts.


Mark Bradley, who might soon be indicted as a Hawks fan if he keeps providing such good material about the team, speculated as to the Hawks free agent batting average after attending yesterday's Jamal Crawford presser. Bradley offered the following about free agent Zaza Pachulia:

Zaza is a tougher call. The rumor is that San Antonio is interested, and that’s a great organization. But the Hawks might even have a fallback there. If Zaza leaves, then the Australian power forward David Andersen, who played last season for Barcelona and whose NBA rights the Hawks hold, could well become a person of interest.

Now, it's a new day in the Hawks Front Office when we are actually discussing using some of our stored up assets for good use. The HHB filed this under (potential good news) just after we filed the Pachulia info under (Dang).

Oh, and the ATL was listed, at least in one place, to be a top 10 free agent destination. In your face, Shelbyville!

2009 Free Agent Outlook

As free agency approaches, the natural inclination is that everybody else's refuse is our treasure. We look at the warts on the players on our roster and wonder how great it would be if some team would make a deal with us?

The HHB wanted to take as honest a look with what limited statistical knowledge we have (thanks to Basketball Reference) and see if the grass was truly greener on the other teams via the free agency route.

From what we could gather from ESPN, here is the list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold) and will be updated with latest news:

Free Agents (restricted)	PER
David Lee (RFA)	19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)	18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)	18.77
Andre Miller	18.71
Charlie Villanueva	18.64
Chris Anderson Zydrunas Ilgauskus	18.16 18.03
Ramon Sessions (RFA)	17.65
Carlos Boozer	17.28
Marcin Gartat (RFA) Ben Gordon	17.20 17.02
Jason Kidd	16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)	16.91
Antonio McDyess	16.63
Lamar Odom	16.60
Brandon Bass	16.49
Mike Bibby	16.38
Drew Gooden	16.34
Marvin Williams	16.04
Shawn Marion	16.02
Allen Iverson	15.89
Ron Artest	15.64
Trevor Ariza	15.51
Grant Hill	15.26
Rasheed Wallace	14.91
Hedo Turkoglu	14.82
Von Wafer	14.79
RFM	14.79
Anderson Varajao	14.62
Rasho Nesterovic	14.15
Zaza Pachulia	14.14
Joe Smith	13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)	13.80
Shelden Williams	13.78
Chris Wilcox	13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)	13.10
Wally Szczerbiak	12.18
Anthony Parker	12.16
Solomon Jones	12.08
Robert Swift	11.50
Theo Ratliff	11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)	10.77
Raef Lafrentz	10.40
Channing Frye (RFA)	10.09
Ime Udoka	9.57
Stromile Swift	6.80
Malik Rose	5.28

We know that PER isn't the perfect tool, but this gives a general idea of what's out there and by a little more advanced statistical look, how our current free agents stack up.

Some thoughts:

Some of these players need to be looked at not how they did last year specifically, but how they are trending, their age, etc. For example, Andre Miller still looks like a productive PG, but how will he look at the end of a three year contract, if he accepts that? Same goes for our own Mike Bibby.

Also, one year aberrations should be noted as well, as in the case of RFM, who had his second best season out of the (7) seasons in the league.

Drew Gooden is in his Age 28 season in the league. Seems like he's been in the league for a long time. He is likely entering the "underrated productive forward" stage of his career and then end up in "used to be underrated but then everyone realized he was underrated and now he overrated/overpaid" part of his career. Bottom line---he's always been productive (he always seems to kill the Hawks) and will likely be underrated going into this offseason--could be a bargain.

Robert Swift was as productive as Solomon Jones, though both played in limited minutes---but it's interesting to note in case Rick Sund decides to bring Swift aboard.

Trevor Ariza is poised to get wildly overpaid (thanks to his Finals run) for somebody with his track record of league average play.

It will be interesting to see how Allen Iverson performs next season. 2008-09 was obviously his worst season, but has been a terrific producer (if you can handle what he does/doesn't do offensively) statistically. He is prime for a 1-year, prove it, contract--but from whom? You would think that Atlanta would suit him perfect--the town would love him, his defense would look superb compared to what currently passes, and he (ahem) knows the Hawks offense.

Speaking of shorter deals, Jason Kidd has settled into the next tier down from his excellent run in New Jersey. He is going into his Age 36 year, so one has to wonder what he has left--likely looking at a Sam Cassell circa 2005 contract (2 years). His fit on the Hawks would be questionable, given the Hawks anxiety about pushing the ball (unless a forward has the ball) and the propensity towards isolation sets.

Borrowing from Hoopinion's great cap status post here, we can look at the Hawks financial outlook for 2009 as it stands today. It looks as if we can almost rule out a RFA signing, as even with tendering Marvin and renouncing everyone else (Zaza, Childress, et al) the Hawks could only start @ around 6 million for free agents. With the RFA list including Sessions, Lee, Nate, Charlie V, you would think that a contract starting there would be matched immediately.

Hakim Warrick has improved every season and last year came close to equaling Josh Smith's totals, though Smith's were his lowest since his second season. Warrick, however, doesn't come close to touching Smoove in the block/steal categories.

The HHB wishes that they could bring Zydrunas Ilgauskus in, given that he has consistently produced for CLE, can run a pick and pop, and rebounds so well. Shaq is more productive, even @ 3 years older than Z--but not by that much statistically and not in the same way. If Z gets away, then he'll be the top center out there for someone to grab.

Ben Gordon might wish that he already had that 6 year, 54 million dollar deal in hand--especially considering he had provided slightly above average numbers for the Bulls in his five seasons there. The Hawks can hope that Jeff Teague gives them that level of production with the 19th pick.

Admit it, you're surprised that Ron Artest is less productive than Marvin Williams. Look at his career, and you'll see he's been overrated compared to what his perceived value has been, not even measuring in the insanity factor.

(Sidenote: When he was a rookie in the 1999-2000 season, we mentioned to the late, great Jeffrey Denberg that we loved Artest's defensive intensity and wished he was on the Hawks, to which Denberg quickly responded, "You don't want him, he's psycho." In his rookie season. Well done, Mr. Denberg.)

You can see why Brandon Bass is getting some attention out there. Teams are probably thinking they can get the guy on the cheap, but his production since coming to Dallas has been obvious and it looks like people noticed, making him a candidate to get overpaid. When Bass worked out for the Hawks in 2004 when he first put his name in the draft--he looks like he is now, a tough competitor who doesn't look pretty, but gets the job done.

Shawn Marion used to be considered elite when he was @ Phoenix, but whether it's malaise or the effects of not being with an all-star PG, his production numbers have dropped across the board. A west coast team might be able to coax better seasons, especially those with a good point guard (let's rule out the Hawks then), considering he is entering his Age 31 season, but he may just be falling fast.

Hedo Turkoglu wants 50 million dollars over 5 years like Corey Maggette got last season, trying to revive the ol' "one bad contract deserves another" philosophy to negotiation. Turkoglu was a piece in the Magic's success, but it is saying something that the Magic would turn him loose so quick. They basically got an upgrade on the one trick pony by bringing in Vince Carter. This would be a player that the old Hawks might have signed, pre-Billy Knight. Thankfully, those days are gone--we hope.

Raymond Felton doesn't score well on the PER either, so it's good to look at why, considering Felton is touted as a good, young PG. His turnovers are high and his shooting percentage is awful, especially in the EFG, TS%, and his raw 3pt shooting, you understand why. When you have to envy Josh Smith's 3-pt prowess, you are struggling.

When you look at the crop of free agents, Marvin Williams comes out looking pretty good. Zaza Pachulia plays up to his backup center status and as one of the league's best offensive rebounders. Mike Bibby is as effective as his shot makes him--no big surprise there--last year being very good to him and lifting him above the league average. RFM produced at league average for minimum pay--he likely won't have to settle for that, but any team that signs him (especially the Hawks) have to understand his inconsistency and history. Solomon Jones may not get another look if the Hawks cut him loose, and while we have been down on Jones here, there are obviously worse players collecting a check. Doesn't mean the Hawks have to have him though, right?

UPDATE: As we said, we knew we'd miss someone, and Sekou has the name first on his free agents entry---his name and PER has been inserted--and yes, we should be interested--greatly.

UPDATE 2: Electric Boogaloo: Milwaukee has decided NOT to offer Charlie V a qualifier, making him unrestricted.

The HHB are not sabermagicians and understand that PER has limitations and this list may not be completely complete (hey, if airlines can have a last final call, we can have completely complete)---All conversation will be held inside the think tank that is the Comments Area.