A (Statistical) Truth About Mike Bibby

As we have looked closer at the potential of a Mike Bibby resigning, we have become more sure that Bibby services need to be retained. Not only was Bibby extremely helpful in bringing it all together for the Hawks the past two seasons, but he fits an increasingly hard to find talent set in the market right now, a true facilitator who can shoot. Reports on Monday out of Portland were that the Blazers may be down on Andre Miller due to his lack of killer J, the skill of which Mr. Bibby excels.

Also, though we not the most statistical here at the HHB, we have brought in a team of summer interns that have helped us crunch the numbers and revealed a very interesting statistic about Mike Bibby's season last year--consider:

We ran certain numbers from Bibby's 2008-2009 season (Stats Courtesy of Basketball Reference-go sponsor a page today!), PER, Minutes Played, Assist Rate, and Effective FG percentage. We also filtered by Position, Age, and Years in the League. What we found is that only (12) times since the 1989-90 season a player has done what Mike Bibby did in those (4) categories.

Totals																	Shooting
Rk	Player	Season	Age	Tm	Lg	G	MP	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER	eFG%	AST%
1	Magic Johnson	1989-90	30	LAL	NBA	79	2937	546	1138	106	276	567	637	128	394	522	907	132	34	289	167	1765	.480	.384	.890	26.6	.526	45.5
2	Magic Johnson	1990-91	31	LAL	NBA	79	2933	466	976	80	250	519	573	105	446	551	989	102	17	314	150	1531	.477	.320	.906	25.1	.518	49.3
3	Steve Nash	2006-07	32	PHO	NBA	76	2682	517	971	156	343	222	247	30	239	269	884	57	6	287	117	1412	.532	.455	.899	23.8	.613	50.1
4	Chauncey Billups	2007-08	31	DET	NBA	78	2522	393	877	137	342	401	437	42	170	212	529	101	17	160	130	1324	.448	.401	.918	23.6	.526	34.7
5	John Stockton	1994-95	32	UTA	NBA	82	2867	429	791	102	227	246	306	57	194	251	1011	194	22	267	215	1206	.542	.449	.804	23.3	.607	52.6
6	John Stockton	1996-97	34	UTA	NBA	82	2896	416	759	76	180	275	325	45	183	228	860	166	15	248	194	1183	.548	.422	.846	22.1	.598	46.0
7	John Stockton	1995-96	33	UTA	NBA	82	2915	440	818	95	225	234	282	54	172	226	916	140	15	246	207	1209	.538	.422	.830	21.9	.596	49.1
8	John Stockton	2001-02	39	UTA	NBA	82	2566	401	775	25	78	275	321	59	204	263	674	152	24	208	209	1102	.517	.321	.857	21.9	.534	46.3
9	Steve Nash	2007-08	33	PHO	NBA	81	2780	485	962	179	381	222	245	28	254	282	898	53	5	295	113	1371	.504	.470	.906	21.1	.597	47.3
10	Steve Nash	2008-09	34	PHO	NBA	74	2484	428	851	108	246	196	210	19	204	223	717	55	10	248	108	1160	.503	.439	.933	19.5	.566	42.4
11	Jason Kidd	2008-09	35	DAL	NBA	81	2886	257	618	131	323	86	105	85	415	500	702	160	39	185	168	731	.416	.406	.819	16.9	.522	34.7
12	Mike Bibby	2008-09	30	ATL	NBA	79	2740	437	1005	167	428	135	171	38	240	278	392	98	11	128	145	1176	.435	.390	.789	16.3	.518	24.2

The goal of this exercise was to see the following:

1. Was there anything unique about the season Bibby had last year?
2. Is it easily repeatable?
3. Was this an outlier season for Bibby?

We chose PER, Assist Rate, Minutes Played and Effective Field Goal percentage because we felt it best captured what the point guard position on the Hawks was looking for: A facilitator who can shoot, play a lot of minutes (though we only used 30MPG * 82 as the measure here, Bibby played over 36 MPG last season--Billips was the only player who wouldn't have made the cut @ 36 MPG), and overall offensive effectiveness.

We chose the age (30) and years in the league (11) to gauge how common it is to do this later in one's career, effecting repeatability.

You're talking the likes of Steve Nash, John Stockton, and Magic Johnson here. There's Jason Kidd with last season like Bibby and two seasons ago Chauncey Billups.

We wanted to check if this was an outlier season, so we stretched the criteria to include any age of season and we found that this is Bibby's only season realizing all of these statistical thresholds at once. Being that the .518 EFG was a career high, we dialed it back slightly to .500 and found three other seasons. Bibby had a total of (4) out of the 142 occurrences (at the .500 eFG) since the 1981-1982 season. Not too shabby.

So, it seems that Bibby's season is somewhat unique in that it occurs less than an average of (5) times a season in the NBA among guards. We also saw that the season was not an aberration for Bibby, as he has dotted his (11) seasons with (4) of his own entries.

Looking at this and understanding his offensive value to the team, and given there are no true facilitators on the roster or elsewhere in free agency that can help spread the floor when the other isolators are doing their thing in the Hawks "offense", it seems a good thing to do to bring Bibby back. And consider, as we've written before, that Kidd's speculated 3 year, 25 million dollar deal is the high watermark for any Bibby deal--most believe it will come in below Kidd and above the MLE, which would put it in the 3 year, 20 million range.

We just wanted to attempt to put some statistical context around what Bibby provided last season and we feel that was accomplished by this exercise. Whether Bibby can continue that level of output over the next three years is debatable, but the HHB feels as though what Bibby does provide is unique in the NBA and needed for what the Hawks do and we welcome the resigning.

Now go make it happen.

Link for the search: http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... der_by=per

UPDATE: According to Sekou Smith, they did make it happen! A reported 3 years and 18 million according to Smith and two sources familiar with the situation.

Regarding Zaza

We still await the morning of the 8th, where we will see what actually happens when pen moves onto paper all across the NBA.

But we felt compelled to comment about Zaza Pachulia, about whom Sekou Smith on Twitter (@sekousmith01) and republished @ Hoopinion said the Hawks made "their case" to the unrestricted free agent big man Monday afternoon.

That the Hawks made their case sounds more like explanation that proposition, but maybe that's just an odd choice of words for the excellent beat writer Smith. However after appearing on The Bill Shanks Show on Monday, Smith, Shanks, and company sounded less than enthusiastic regarding the odds of Zaza returning to the Hawks next season.

It would make sense, considering the needs in Houston and Orlando that Pachulia would be in demand. Also, given the money that Marcin Gortat and Glen Davis are set to be offered by the Mavs and Spurs respectively, close to full MLE (5 and 30-33 million) if reports are to be correct, it might be fiscally prudent to let Pachulia mosey to those significantly green pastures.

However, if Pachulia should walk, it's important that the Hawks address his absence with not just David Andersen as discussed in our previous entry, but with an additional big man as well, giving the Hawks a Plus One in the big man category. Since the Hawks have been mired near the bottom half of the league in rebounding rates despite having a terrific offensive rebounder in Pachulia and a top 15 defensive rebounder in Horford, it makes sense that this is an area that would have to be addressed.

In regards to signing both Andersen and another big man (McDyess and Gooden would be our first two options) the question came up regarding whether we had the cap space to sign both. The Hawks, with their cap holds for their free agents (Bibby, Childress, Williams) along with their current commitments are expected to be over the cap, meaning that they would need to and could use the Mid-Level Exception (MLE) to sign McDyess or Gooden (see how the HHB is trying to creep those names). As for Andersen, the Hawks still retain his draft rights and he carries a zero dollar cap value from being a second round pick, so the Hawks can sign him as they would this year's second round pick.

What Hawks Fans Should Watch For

As the actual Free Agency Week (you know, when people can actually sign and teams can finally relax) comes into being, let's quickly review what Hawks fans should be watching for, according to the last few days of reports:

Jason Kidd, who was being sought after by, in large part, the Knicks and Mavericks, has apparently decided to take more of Mark Cuban's money and remain in Dallas. In addition to being the best offer, it also allows Kidd to perform in an offense and with teammates that best suit him at this time in his career. The terms of Kidd's contract are widely reported to being in the 3 year, 25 million+ range.

This impacts Hawks free agent PG Mike Bibby, who the Philadelphia Inquirer noted was intent on staying a Hawk over the weekend. Kidd's contract (terms and length) should serve as a high-end benchmark for the 31 year old PG, slated for his 12th season in the league. Though, as Sekou Smith reported over the weekend, a deal is not finalized, it makes sense that Bibby should stay where he likely will be the best paid, has had good success, and fits in well.

Also being reported is that this is finally the year that David Andersen realizes his dream of playing in the NBA. Sekou reported this as a probability last week, and over the weekend reports like this started finding its way into Bird Watchers' view. (We first saw it referenced over at Peachtree Hoops) . The highlight (for those who don't want to translate):

The Atlanta Hawks, who chose the number 37 in the 2002 draft, require players inside as they are about to lose Zaza patchouli, which has become a free agent.

"David is an option, as has every summer, to break his contract if it receives an offer from the NBA before July 15. I can not say anything more," said his agent, Kenny Grant, a "World Sports" .The Australian pivot Hawks will leave if the offer at least a contract similar to that charged in the Regal Barcelona: 2 million euros per season.

That's about 2.8 million dollars to match what Andersen currently earns over there. The July 15th deadline should mean that we may find out this week if Andersen is truly on his way over to play for the Hawks.

BTW, it's interesting (at least to the basketball nerds here at the HHB) that at the bottom of the article it talks about replacing Andersen there with Terrence Morris, who is done with his team in Russia. Morris was a selected by the Hawks in the 2nd round in 2001, and then was traded on draft night to the Houston Rockets for a future 1st rounder (which the Hawks in turn traded to SAC for the draft rights to Dan Dickau in 2002).

As was reported last week, Andersen was thought to be a fallback in case Zaza Pachulia was set to depart the Nest. Though no reports have contained the details of deals like Rasheed Wallace or Marcin Gortat, there is no question that Pachulia has suitors. Being unrestricted, Zaza can go wherever there is money and, given teams that were jilted by Gortat and Wallace still have their exceptions, Zaza may be finding the greener pastures in cities like Houston or Orlando, for starters.

That July 15th deadline is also in place for Josh Childress, who had a well publicized meeting in Milwaukee, but little other public detail. Over the course of this free agent week, we'll likely know if Childress has indeed opted out of his deal in Greece to come back to the NBA, and he won't opt out of that deal without something concrete here in the States.

It remains to be seen if the re-signing of Bibby does indeed mean the end of the short, but productive, RFM era in the ATL. Long thought that the Hawks would keep one or the other after the arrival of Jamal Crawford and the first round selection of Jeff Teague, keeping Bibby could Flip the switch off for the Hawks. It's important to remember, however, that the then 6-yr vet guard was headed to Russia with no better offers last season before believer-Rick Sund gave him a million dollar deal to come aboard the Hawks. One would think Murray's solid, even performance this season as the Hawks top reserve would open some other doors, but teams may still be wary of his past inconsistency.

Alas, this only contains folks we currently have---the natural reaction is to ask, "what about the Hawks getting in on some of these other names floating around?" For starters, the names right now out there are the higher dollar names, and those the Hawks would have to renounce the right to their own free agents to be able to sign, which the Hawks obviously haven't been interested in doing (it would include Bibby and Marvin, as well as Chill, Zaza, or some combination of any or all). So it really leaves the Hawks with their full mid-level exception and there are still some names that would good to use that on---they're just not the names that are out there in full force at this time. It does makes sense to wait for the smoke to clear and money to be spent before you start showing your hand.

Our bet? When the signings start and some of the names we've seen come off the free agent board, the Hawks will be in the mix for one of the second or third tier free agents. We would love to see Antonio McDyess or Drew Gooden get serious consideration from the Hawks given that they address a major weakness for the team last season---rebounding.

The HHB takes its show on the road to the ATL this week, so buckle up Atlanta! Complaints and traffic violations can be mailed directly to the Comments Area.

Reports: Bibby To Stay a Hawk

Free agency has been still thus far for Bird Watchers, but news is coming out that the Hawks are in the lead for retaining PG Mike Bibby for a reported (3) more seasons.

Both the Philadelphia Inquirer and Yahoo Sports have reported that Bibby turned down overtures from the Sixers, who are interested in replacing their own FA PG Andre Miller.

One of the reports had Bibby being offered a 1-yr deal by PHL, but that ATL had an edge by offering a 3-yr deal. Another had the Sixers asking about Bibby's interests and was told that Bibby was intent on staying a Hawk.

This would be good news for the Hawks in the short team considering Bibby's departure would leave no true point guards on the roster. His defensive liabilities have been well documented as have his offensive strongpoints. The acquisitions of Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague could be used to limit Bibby's minutes and maximize his effectiveness.

There have been no reports as to the potential terms of a deal, but one has to look at the 3 yr, 24 million dollar offer Mavericks PG Jason Kidd has been alleged to have been offered by both the Knicks and Mavericks as a guideline and ruler for a potential Bibby deal.

Free Agency: Day 2

The only Hawks news came from Sekou Smith, who was tracking the hows and whys of Josh Chilldress' visit to Milwaukee. The Hawks say they'll match anything MLE and less, and with Childress perhaps not wanting to take a chance of having to be in Atlanta, he might head back to Greece if he doesn't get a deal the Hawks won't likely match or a sign/trade.

The Hawks should become more active once some of these front line free agents find homes, leaving the next tier, glamour-wise--not necessarily production wise--, for the Hawks to deal with, including their own free agents, who have had to wait their turn as well.


What we learned on Thursday:


Ron Artest/Trevor Ariza

Artest, despite the emtpy protests of his agent, did indeed leave Houston, not for Shaq and the King in Cleve-land, but to help Kobe and Pau try to repeat in LA. We're not sold on the big win boost that the Lakers are already being ordained with for next season by replacing Ariza w/Artest. Artest hasn't played more than 70 games since 2003-04 and never a full season, while Ariza played every game last year. And while Artest has been more productive than Ariza to a small degree last season, it remains to be seen if Artest continues to decline and Ariza continues to improve, especially if it's over the same (5) years.

Hedo Turkoglu

He is still on track for Portland, though Ric Bucher reported Thursday night that Turk's wife liked the city of Toronto and that could play a factor in Hedo's decision. Our bet is that, if Kevin Pritchard wants Turk for the 5 and 50 that's being discussed, he'll find a way to get him into a Blazer.

Marcin Gortat

Gortat has reportedly decided to sign his full MLE offer sheet with the Dallas Mavericks. The Magic will be able to match or work out a sign and trade, but it got many free agent watchers talking about the old Jon Koncak offer sheet the Pistons signed before the 1989-90 season, which of course, the Hawks matched. The full MLE should be something in the order of 5 years, 33 million dollars.

Jason Kidd

Kidd has discussed a 3 year offer from the Knicks, which is stunning considering they have been playing the 2010 card (otherwise known "Waiting for LeBron) and any sort of infringement on the cap space was heretofor thought of as being taboo. The HHB still expects Kidd to stay in DAL, where he can continue to play with Dirk and JT, but it might be interesting if he and the Knicks think that having him in the Big Apple could help in luring the King to the Knicks.

Rasheed Wallace

Once thought to be a done deal to the Celtics (might still be), the San Antonio Spurs popped in and seemed poised to offer as much as the C's. The Celtics on Thursday rolled out the red carpet (may not actually be red) for Rasheed.

Here is the updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold; Attempted to highlight in the team's colors that the free agents choose---fancy!)

Free Agents (restricted)	PER
David Lee (RFA)	19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)	18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)	18.77
Andre Miller	18.71
Charlie Villanueva	18.64
Chris Anderson	18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)	17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA) Ben Gordon	17.20 17.02
Jason Kidd	16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)	16.91
Antonio McDyess	16.63
Lamar Odom	16.60
Brandon Bass	16.49
Mike Bibby	16.38
Drew Gooden	16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA)	16.04
Shawn Marion	16.02
Allen Iverson	15.89
Ron Artest	15.64
Trevor Ariza	15.51
Grant Hill	15.26
Rasheed Wallace	14.91
Hedo Turkoglu	14.82
Von Wafer	14.79
RFM	14.79
Anderson Varajao	14.62
Rasho Nesterovic	14.15
Zaza Pachulia	14.14
Joe Smith	13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)	13.80
Shelden Williams	13.78
Chris Wilcox	13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)	13.10
Wally Szczerbiak	12.18
Anthony Parker	12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)	12.08
Robert Swift	11.50
Theo Ratliff	11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)	10.77
Raef Lafrentz	10.40
Channing Frye	10.09
Mario West (RFA) Ime Udoka	10.00 9.57
Stromile Swift	6.80
Malik Rose	5.28