Quickie Hawks Free Agent Update

With the latest in non-Hawks signings this past week, let's take a look at how those moves might impact the Hawks.

Lamar Odom signs with the Lakers:

Obviously, this was good for the Hawks because the main competition for Odom's services was in Miami--fortunately the lure of "riding Kobe's coattails" and being an "apostle" in Los Angeles was stronger than the attraction of South Beach and Dwayne Wade and becoming part of what might be an epic sequel to a "memorable" first round playoff series last year.

Too bad.

Hakim Warrick signs with the Bucks:

It's the size of the contract, the 1 year-3 million dollar type, that interests the HHB because such a small deal for a player of Warrick's productivity and youth should positively influence the price range of the Hawks' alleged target, Joe Smith. If the Hawks didn't want to pay Smith the same deal as some of the other players in his price range, then surely a much younger, more productive player getting such a small deal should help the Hawks position.

Warrick signed with Milwaukee despite reportedly being chased by the Cavaliers, who may now turn their attention to the services of former Celtic Leon Powe. Powe has the highest PER of any unrestricted free agent remaining unsigned on the list.

Drew Gooden signs with Dallas

This hurt for a couple of reasons. One is that is was a very affordable deal (1 year 4.5 million plus incentives) for a player that is still young, very productive, and fills the largest Hawks need (rebounding) and the Birds weren't involved (But CLE, SAS, and CHA were). Two is that it's the kind of signing that teams that are serious about going further in the playoffs seem to make (see McDyess/Ratliff to the Spurs, Marion/Gooden to the Mavs, etc.).

While the Hawks are still sitting on their bag of magic MLE beans, the Cavs are racing to sign the last remaining talent on the market that could aid their championship. That the Bobcats were in pursuit of Gooden and not the Hawks tells you what Sekou Smith validated earlier---the Hawks aren't interested in even spending three million dollars on another role player, much less would it would have taken to get Drew Gooden.

As it stands, there are few unrestricted free agents of a productive nature left to sign, fewer still that could help in the frontcourt. Your move, Atlanta.


Time to update the Big Free Agent Board--please remember to follow the color coded maps and signs to recognize the teams that these fine gentlemen have selected. Here is the updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold; Attempted to highlight in the team's colors that the free agents choose--and please secure all loose items before reading.)

David Lee (RFA)	19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)	18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)	18.77
Andre Miller	18.71
Charlie Villanueva	18.64
Chris Anderson	18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)	17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA) Leon Powe Ben Gordon	17.20 17.20 17.02
Jason Kidd	16.95
Hakim Warrick	16.91
Antonio McDyess	16.63
Lamar Odom	16.60
Brandon Bass	16.49
Mike Bibby	16.38
Drew Gooden	16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA)	16.04
Shawn Marion	16.02
Allen Iverson	15.89
Ron Artest	15.64
Trevor Ariza	15.51
Grant Hill	15.26
Rasheed Wallace	14.91
Hedo Turkoglu	14.82
Von Wafer	14.79
RFM	14.79
Anderson Varejao	14.62
Rasho Nesterovic	14.15
Zaza Pachulia	14.14
Joe Smith	13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)	13.80
Shelden Williams	13.78
Chris Wilcox	13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA) Matt Barnes Ben Wallace	13.10 12.60 12.18
Wally Szczerbiak	12.18
Anthony Parker	12.16
Solomon Jones	12.08
Robert Swift	11.50
Theo Ratliff	11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)	10.77
Raef Lafrentz	10.40
Channing Frye	10.09
Mario West (RFA)	10.00

Lose My Mind

Y'all gon' make me lose my mind
up in HERE up in here
Y'all gon' make me go all out
up in here up in here
Y'all gon' make me act a FOOL
up in HERE up in here
Y'all gon' make me lose my cool
up in here up in here

Much like the performer of the above, the Hawks have entered a puzzling/confusing stage in their development---as well as their attempts to improve on a second round ouster at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers last season.

Sekou Smith divulges the inner financial minds of the Hawks decision makers in his latest blog offering and the results are somewhat upsetting, but not all that surprising.

Our favorite passage from the Book of Sekou in regards to the well documented pursuit of free agent frontcourtman Joe Smith:

All that said, major work must be done to secure Smith’s signature on a contract. It’s not secret the Hawks aren’t paying the same rate for backup bigs that some other teams are (for example, Chris Wilcox got cash - $6 million over two years - in Detroit that he never could have from the Hawks. Same goes for Drew Gooden and the reported $4.5 mil he’ll bring in on a one-year deal with the Spurs). So they have to find ways (PLAYING TIME!!!!!!!!!!) to lure the kind of players they need to help bolster their cause. It probably helps that, in a summer marked by taking care of in-house business (home grown free agents), Smith is the first player outside of the family that the Hawks actually courted. Again, there is major work still to be done on this front.

Apparently the work doesn't involve spending even a majority (or plurality if they really want to stretch it to include three players) of the MLE.

Though they ponied up the money to resign Mike Bibby (at less cost of either Andre Miller or Jason Kidd it should be noted) and Zaza Pachulia (less cost than Anderson Varejao or Marcin Gortat), they seem unwilling to go a step further and improve the team by bringing in a player(s) that addresses one of the key shortcomings (rebounding) of last year's team.

Teams like the Utah Jazz have even gone so far as to consider loans to ensure they have enough talent to be a contender in the West. This is a standard practice in the world of sports--seeking lines of credit to fund an up front purchase. The Hawks, or at least some of the ownership, aren't as likely to dip into those financial waters, and what is left is having to try to do a vaudevillian sales pitch to try and get even one free agent to come on in. It's no wonder that the Hawks weren't involved with the Bobcats, Cavs, or Mavericks in trying to acquire Drew Gooden or why even with a lovefest and full court press attention to Joe Smith there isn't a signed contract in hand as yet. The Hawks would rather spend 2 million on slightly above replacement level talent than to pay a premium on a role player of any significance.

In the modest HHB minds, that's not how you improve your roster to address the needs of the team and move into the contender stage of a franchise's development.

This is not to say that the Hawks are cheapskates--well, at least not in roster payroll terms--they are making sure the product is good enough, therein the reason why they re-signed Bibby and Zaza. But good enough isn't the same good enough for a championship and actions such as these indicate the Hawks will always be faced with just enough financial restrictions to prevent them from really making the jump beyond a really nice regular season team.

And, in This Corner

Bret over @Hoopinion lays out a pretty strong case why the Question is Moot (or maybe moot) regarding the addition of a fourth big man to the rotation.

The origin of the insight provided was the surrender of the Hawks' rights to Solomon Jones to the Pacers so that he could sign a 2-year deal at the minimum salary level. Now, we would still question why the Hawks felt it was necessary to qualify Jones in the first place if they were willing to part with the forward even at the minimum--you know, since the Hawks have (15) slots to fill and all. We would also ask if Flubber West is now jealous.

The HHB would still like a frontcourt security blanket to provide coverage in case of catastrophic injury loss, rebounding enhancement, and the occasional need to "instruct" Josh Smith in games.

We passed the hat around the offices here at the HHB headquarters and we can give the Hawks $300 towards one of those premium players mentioned. Just let us know, fellas.


Sky Is Blue, Grass is Green, Dept.

Josh Smith took the opportunity to mix it up with other young talents in Las Vegas and the results were as expected to anyone who has watched Smith play more than (5) games with the Hawks the last two seasons.

Turnovers, poor shooting, and a lack of fundamentals were a theme over the course of his stay there, as were the usual athletic big plays that Smith is capable of.

The issue is clear: Smith can choose to shape up his game to take the next step up in his career, or he can embrace and settle into what he is today: A talented big who can occasionally make the remarkable happen but never able to be consistent or technically sound enough to be among the top players in the league. All of which means to the Hawks that they have a 10 million dollar a year player who will only sometimes play to that level.

The HHB has been caught head nodding to music enough in traffic to elicit hysterical laughter in motorists around us---Lessons and groove tips can be sent directly to the Comments area.

Raining on Parades

When Sekou Smith revealed that the Hawks were in pursuit of Joe Smith on Tuesday, it registered just above "dang" but below "yahoo" inside the walls of the HHB.

It's not that Joe Smith isn't a good player or even someone who wouldn't help the Hawks--it's just that with better options still available, it's settling a bit to get Smith now.

Younger, more productive players such as Drew Gooden and Leon Powe (yes, we know he's hurt) are still out there for the Hawks to bring in to address their rebounding and overall front court effectiveness.

Gooden provides some nice creativity in the post (though it's unclear whether that matters in Atlanta's offense) and Powe gives the energy and hustle that Woodson seems to enjoy in his frontcourt players (assumed again because they don't get to play much offense unless it's coming from 20+ feet from the basket).

Their stats, especially compared with Smith's, prove this out---Gooden and Powe's rebounding rates are higher, as is their PER. Both also get to the line considerably more than Smith, with Gooden getting 16.2% draw foul rate and Powe a staggering 27.8% to Joe Smith's comparitively pedestrian 9.4%.

Gooden is entering his Age 28 year; Powe his Age 26th. Smith is on his Age 34 season and has seen some slippage in his numbers, though his career has always been a bit of a roller coaster. We're sure we'll hear someone talk about Smith's veteran leadership and being a Proven Winner (trademark pending), but the HHB believes that there is no winning formula like production and finding the pieces that fit what your team lacks--and asking a 34 year old big man who has been in the L since he was 20 years old to be that might not be the best bang for the buck at this point.

Bottom line, while it's an improvement in outlook that the Hawks are looking at a player like Smith, and that he is interested in return, we would prefer that the team seek out Gooden and Powe first--younger, more long term and potentially still improving or able to maintain level better options that fill in some of the skills white space more completely than Smith does.

Hawks Free Agency, Take One

UPDATE: According to Sekou Smith (you da man!), Zaza Pachulia will be back and richer than ever:

Pachulia, 25, spent the last four years with the Hawks on a $16 million deal. His new deal is believed to be for the same amount of years but with a significant raise, according to one of the sources familiar with the situation.

Considering Marcin Gortat is slated to pull a full MLE deal (approx 5yr/33mil), one might think a deal that is four years for Zaza, might be in the 20-22 million dollar range.

UPDATE 2: The article now says it's 4 years, 18 million---not really all that significant an increase, though the HHB would take 2 million and ask no questions.

(We now resume our previous post---already in progress)

Aaand--action!

Today's the day.

It's the day when rumor become reality, when verbals go written, and a player's word become their bond, legally. For the Hawks it means the official beginning to one of their busier free agency seasons in recent years.

The Hawks have already reached an "oral agreement" for a 3 year, 18 million dollar deal for Mike Bibby. (Thank you, Sekou!)

The HHB signs off on this move as we discussed in an eye-popping table yesterday. For this offense, flawed as we may believe it is, Bibby is a really good fit. His ability to run the team, determine tempo, and understand where the ball should go meshes well with his ability to hit the long ball. His defense is not good, that's for sure, but given the alternative of not having anybody else who can do the things that Mike does, we're sure glad to have him back.

Bibby's signing might mean the end of the RFM era in Atlanta, but we don't know for sure. Murray was on his way to Russia when obtained for one million dollars last summer, and while we were sure his consistent, productive season (a near 15 PER) was going to land him a multi year deal somewhere, if not ATL, we haven't heard his name mentioned in many discussions around the league and in the media corners. Would or should the Hawks crowd the backcourt even more should Murray be availble for the same bargain basement price? His own history suggests last season was a needle in his career haystack--if there are fewer minutes would he go back to being wildly inconsistent? We would bet that Coach Woodson would welcome the veteran back, even with Jamal Crawford on board with a returning Bibby and Joe Johnson, but it would mean a season of non-playing for first round pick Jeff Teague, unless injury reared its head in front of him. After the non-playing of Acie Law, we're not pro on keeping more first rounders on the bench for long.

The only solution we could get behind that would potentially keep Teague on the bench would be the return of Josh Childress to the Hawks. Would Childress risk staying in ATL if the Hawks match an offer sheet? We would really hope so, considering his productivity level was better every season as a Hawk and he was a good rebounder, especially offensively for a guard. But considering all the ill will of the past year, we're not going to hold our breath on this one---well, not for long anyway.

We have written about Zaza and the Hawks need to address the serious rebounding void there is on the team even with Pachulia and Al Horford on the roster. Not being able to resign Zaza means the Hawks have to bring (2) more big men in, not only replace the big fella. Zaza does two things really well statistically, as best we can tell---he gets to the free throw line and he can offensively rebound. He is a terrific backup center, capable of filling in on those nights when Horford is down or in foul trouble.

For the Hawks to be serious about moving forward next year while doing the same things they did last year, another big man must be procured using the MLE. We have already espoused the virtues of our two top targets, Antonio McDyess and Drew Gooden, as they would certainly address the rebounding woes from the power forward position, a place where the starter, Josh Smith, is below average for his position in rebounding rates. Those veterans could do a lot of good to mentor Smith on hustle and determination, especially McDyess, who by all accounts in Detroit is a consummate professional and whose attitude would continue to do good in the changing locker room. That could be a reason the Pistons are determined to get McDyess back and let Rasheed Wallace go to Boston. It would likely take a bold offer by the Hawks to bring him into the ATL.

Gooden seems like he's been around forever but is actually just entering his Age 28 season and has habitually been among the consistent rebounders in the league. It may not take as big a package to land him as it would McDyess because Gooden may be undervalued due to playing on many teams, having weird facial (and neckal) hair, and because rebounding simply isn't as valued an attribute as it should be.

Marvin Williams likely won't get much attention in the restricted market because teams figure the Hawks will match any reasonable offer for the forward. Folks have benchmarked Charlie Villanueva's rumored 5 year, 35-40 million deal as a ruler for a Marvin contract. Marvin has improved every season and has shown scoring ability, especially when Joe Johnson was sidelined, and he was second on the team in foul drawing rate (Pachulia). His good nature, hard work ethic, and abilities make the case that the Hawks would likely match an offer stand up. The qualifying offer is over 7 million dollars anyway--Marvin could sign it and take his chances next season as an unrestricted free agent.

All of which is to say that tomorrow officially gets the boat launched and away from the dock. We will see who is truly targeting whom and what the Hawks will do. Resigning Bibby is a good start, but not addressing the obvious rebounding deficits would be a costly mistake, especially should Pachulia be allowed to leave.

The HHB has the party favors and the Official Travelling Low Def Viewing Center ready for action--hopefully the good guys will oblige. Free agent thoughts, chips, and dip can be brought into the Comments Area.

Free Agency, Day (Minus) 1

The free agent discussion seems to have heated up all around the way, and the HHB was made aware of a couple of omissions from yesterday's free agent list. The list has been updated and will be kept up/tweaked along the way.

Free agency discussions begin legally among NBA teams and players Wednesday (that's July 1st for the calendar impaired) and Tuesday is the deadline for teams to tender qualifying offers to their restricted free agents.

What we learned Monday:

The headline, to the surprise of former Raptors GM Rob Babcock, was that Charlie Villanueva was not tendered by the Milwaukee Bucks, thereby leaving him open for signing elsewhere. Sekou Smith immediately informed the Twitter watchers (he's @sekousmith01, so follow him already) that CV31 was indeed on the Hawks radar, but we will expect that Charles will have a few places to choose from, and most of them playoff teams. With @CV31 so prevalent on Twitter, fans of every team has started campaigns to recruit the free agent elect to their town.

The Bucks did, however, tender Villanueva's soon-to-be former Buck-mate, Ramon Sessions, meaning that they retain the right of first refusal on the young PG. The HHB doubts you'll see a quick offer to Sessions, as teams are likely going to interpret the non-tender of CV31 and the opposite on Sessions to indicate they will match, much like the free agency of Josh Smith last summer. Teams don't want to tie up that money while the Bucks decide whether or not to match (up to seven days). Now, that doesn't mean that Sessions' camp won't say that the Bucks won't match, as they will want to try to get an offer when there are more teams in the mix for his service. Ah, we're so cynical here.

Isn't it nice when you see a front office quickly identifying what's needed and moving towards that goal? That's what we see in Portland's front office, as they have identified that what they need is a veteran upgrade at the point guard position. Jason Kidd and Andre Miller are the two names that have immediately jumped into the discussion. Smart, verrry smart.

We also heard that Toronto is interested in fulfilling the 5 year, 50 million dollar fantasies of Hedo Turkoglu. This might make sense if the Raptors were a player away and they knew Chris Bosh were staying, but signing Hedo to a 5 year deal going into his Age 30 season doesn't make a lot of sense in their current position.

As for the fits for the Hawks, while CV31 has already been identified by Sekou, we believe that Drew Gooden might be a better fit for the Hawks. We spoke highly of Gooden's production in our initial look at the free agents and now ESPN's Ric Bucher listed Gooden as a Top 20 free agent target (Insider req) and suggested that Gooden is "an above-average rebounder and can create shots for himself on the block" and suited for a team that needs a player who can "provide points when the offense bogs down and jumpers are not falling." Hello---that's a job listing for the Hawks right there. Now Bucher didn't list the Hawks as good fit for the forward, to which we objected with following Twitter salvo:

@RicBucher You've got to add the Hawks for Drew Gooden. A good rebounder who provides post offense when the shots aren't falling? Perfect.

to which Bucher graciously responded:

RicBucher@THHB Not a bad point. I just know Atl's not spending any $. 1M factors in the FA game. Tried to consider as many as I could.

Ouch--the truth (and our reputation) hurts.


Mark Bradley, who might soon be indicted as a Hawks fan if he keeps providing such good material about the team, speculated as to the Hawks free agent batting average after attending yesterday's Jamal Crawford presser. Bradley offered the following about free agent Zaza Pachulia:

Zaza is a tougher call. The rumor is that San Antonio is interested, and that’s a great organization. But the Hawks might even have a fallback there. If Zaza leaves, then the Australian power forward David Andersen, who played last season for Barcelona and whose NBA rights the Hawks hold, could well become a person of interest.

Now, it's a new day in the Hawks Front Office when we are actually discussing using some of our stored up assets for good use. The HHB filed this under (potential good news) just after we filed the Pachulia info under (Dang).

Oh, and the ATL was listed, at least in one place, to be a top 10 free agent destination. In your face, Shelbyville!