The Bill Shanks Show was very kind to host THHB for a Hawks Preview this afternoon. You can listen to the interview (if you can stomach it) below (2 parts)!
Part 1:
Part 2
Good luck getting to the game (or to your TV) for opening night and Let's Go Hawks!
Showing posts with label Hawks Season Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hawks Season Preview. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
THHB Season Preview, Part Three: The Rest of the Story
We've tackled The Season and The Starters and now it's time for----the Rest of the Story.
We've been asked about the new depth the Hawks have and we have stated that, while yes it's nice to see familiar names and seemingly competent folks holding down the Six through Ten, it doesn't exactly mean the Hawks have the bench of say the Magic and/or Celtics, who just so happen to be the teams the Hawks should be aiming to chase down this season.
Let's take a look.
The Bench:
They Liked it So Much, They Bought the Company!
Making a summer long story shorter---the Hawks got great production out of Ronald "Flip" Murray last season, but it was only the third such season in RFM's well traveled career, making it very unlikely that he would repeat such production. The Hawks understood the value that RFM provided the team and figured they needed to ensure such levels of production needed to be secured for this follow up season.
The Hawks also entered the offseason without a signature of Mike Bibby's on a contract meaning that, should Bibby sign elsewhere, they could have been without a triggerman for their perimeter heavy offense.
Enter the deal for Jamal Crawford---a deal that fulfilled both insurance in case Bibby bolted and also a player who could likely match that production that RFM lent to last season's team.
Didn't really make that shorter, did we? Moving on---
Crawford's career numbers are, even on the low side, right at or above the season that RFM provided--so they have that going for them, which is nice. The cost of attaining such assurance, player-wise was insignificant: a finished Speedy Claxton and the disappointing/disliked (by Coach Woodson standards) Acie Law. The price tag (2 more years, 19 more million dollars), however, is what has raised some eyebrows around the Nest, given that with that contract the Hawks, even if Joe Johnson left this coming offseason, wouldn't have enough for a star level contract to replace him.
The question this season around this shall be: Was it worth that kind of commitment to hedge a Bibby bet and/or replace RFM (circa 2008-09)?
Crawford provides a terrific ability to score--so much so that he scared THHB every time he made a shot when he played against the Hawks, as if he was going to go nuclear and go on one of those runs that can paralyze an opponent. His defense had been much maligned everywhere he has gone, but none of those teams have seen the level of bad the Hawks have individually displayed on defense over the years--believe us America when we say: We can cope with it.
That Man's Money and He Doesn't Even Know It
We were very surprised that Zaza Pachulia took (4) years and (19) million dollars to resign with the Hawks. That the Cavaliers spent quite a bit more for a similar player in Anderson Varejao (6 and 50) and Marcin Gortat receiving a full MLE from the Magic should let Hawks fans know how much Zaza wanted to be a Hawk.
Every winning team seems to have a player like Zaza coming off the bench in the frontcourt.
He doesn't really have the ability to block a shot (no seriously, don't wait for any blocks unless Earl Boykins is driving and even then--he's more likely to get knocked down by Zaza than get his stuff thrown out of there.) and he won't be confused with Brad Miller in terms of passing the ball from the center position.
But what he does--oh, he does so well.
He provides precious extra possessions by his ability to offensively rebound.(Zaza was 7th in ORB% among players that played at least 15 mpg last season (basketball reference is king) ). He goes to the basket with reckless abandon---not with the intention of scoring necessarily, but with the intention of his version of a meet-and-greet in the lane, otherwise known as drawing contact. Pachulia's draw foul rate was far and away the best on the Hawks at (25.2) percent (82games.com is also king--remember--we're appeasers!).
He is also the type of annoying presence for the opposition that makes you love that he is on your team. THHB doesn't believe that he is insidious as some other goons might have been on other teams in the past---Zaza brings the nice guy demeanor to the "Screw You Guy" for the opposition to shout at.
No, That's Not a Pseudonym, His Name is Really Joe Smith
He was their big outside the roster free agent signing, and they got him for peanuts. THHB hopes it doesn't end up smelling like elephants.
Smith will provide a more seasoned upgrade for the minutes Solomon Jones logged last year, and if you were certain that Smith would be used more than Jones, then you're saying that he'll thief those minutes from Zaza, Al, or Josh---try that at your own (and the team's) risk.
Smith's playoff seasoning is really encompassed in the last (2) seasons he spent in Cleve-land. Smith provided the same sort of minutes we feel Woody will use Joe for here---a dependable big body off the bench, rather than the "I'm not ready" look that Jones often provided or the cavalcade of projects and D-leaguers the Hawks gave floor time to.
We would have preferred a more impact type role player, like say Drew Gooden, but if the goal was to upgrade the minutes from last season and replace one for one, then Smith (especially for the min price) was a good option. We would just caution not to expect much at all from this role.
In the NBA Draft, Even the Ushers Get the Guy They Really Wanted
Jeff Teague is fast. Maybe the fastest Hawk with the basketball since JT. What Teague does not have that Terry had like crazy is a drop dead jump shot. And in the Hawks stand, dribble, and shoot offense, that may not be such a good fit.
Teague has a nice feel for the ball and delivers it surprisingly well for a guy not even into the seasonal part of his rookie year, but to make the most out of his skill, the Hawks would have to allow him to penetrate and dish or get out on the break and run. Filling the "Mike Bibby" role in the offense does not play to Teague's strengths and would make for some frustrating outings for the young man.
Teague replaces Acie Law as the PG of the Future Du Jour--with an important advantage. Leading up to and through the draft, Hawks GM Rick Sund made it clear that Mike Woodson would have a good part in making this pick. Even on the night of the draft, there was Woodson in the war room, and afterwards Sund made it clear that this was a "team" pick, leaving Woody's fingerprints on the 19th pick. It behooves Woody to not bury Teague on the bench or make him play away from what he does best, so that may end up in the Hawks favor when it comes to the eventual production of this exciting young player.
You Got it Half Right---Which Means You Got it All Wrong
We never believed that Maurice Evans could replace the production of Josh Childress and the stats say it wasn't even close. Evans struggled through massive stretches of play with his outside shot, making the series of games he was hot moot by impact. The offensive rebounding and overall efficiency provided by Childress was missed off the bench and in the spots where Evans was forced to start (25 games last season).
Evans did however prove to be quite a leader and a steady voice of reason, but his play on the court was a little too shaky for a guy who logged over (1800) minutes for a playoff team.
Others Finished with (65) Percent of the Vote and Will Take Office in February.
Randolph Morris, Othello Hunter, and Jason Collins make up the rest of the roster, making the Hawks one of (4) teams to carry the league minimum of (13) players.
Morris is in the last year of a (2) year, minimum level contract and hasn't shown near enough to justify continuing the experiment to this point. He plays smaller than his height, but does have soft hands--it just doesn't amount to a lot on the basketball court at this point.
Hunter is an aggressive, always improving big man who wouldn't be so bad as the Hawks 5th big man, but that role has been given away to a Proven Veteran. Hunter still is very raw, but gives fans what they are looking for from a player so far down on a bench---hustle, aggressiveness, and obvious athleticism.
Collins is the Proven Veteran who will no doubt get the call if Al, Zaza, Josh, and Joe Smith are unable to return to the game. Collins once was an excellent defender but in recent years seems to have lost the fastball. We are interested to see what the big fella (and he does have some serious NBA size) can provide if pressed into duty, but we're getting the feeling that we don't wanna know.
To summarize: The Bench has improved, but one did not have to elevate to the levels of The Namesake to clear the bar set by the previous season's benches.
They're OK, and that is definitely an improvement.
We Watched (27) Minutes of Previews---When Does The Movie Start?!
We've said our peace, now we're ready for the home team to prove us wrong (unbloody likely with our talented scouts and mathematicians on staff here). GameTime is Tomorrow Night---A Home game even!
THHB will appear on The Bill Shanks Show this (Wednesday) afternoon @ 5pm EST (click the link for the live stream if you want to listen in) to talk about the season, players, and all other things Hawks. In other words, just what you have read for the last three days---but in audio form! Seriously, tune in to Bill's show as he actually hosts a show in Georgia that gives a darn about the Hawks and will talk knowledgeably about them .
THHB is amped for the new season. That is all.
We've been asked about the new depth the Hawks have and we have stated that, while yes it's nice to see familiar names and seemingly competent folks holding down the Six through Ten, it doesn't exactly mean the Hawks have the bench of say the Magic and/or Celtics, who just so happen to be the teams the Hawks should be aiming to chase down this season.
Let's take a look.
The Bench:
They Liked it So Much, They Bought the Company!
Making a summer long story shorter---the Hawks got great production out of Ronald "Flip" Murray last season, but it was only the third such season in RFM's well traveled career, making it very unlikely that he would repeat such production. The Hawks understood the value that RFM provided the team and figured they needed to ensure such levels of production needed to be secured for this follow up season.
The Hawks also entered the offseason without a signature of Mike Bibby's on a contract meaning that, should Bibby sign elsewhere, they could have been without a triggerman for their perimeter heavy offense.
Enter the deal for Jamal Crawford---a deal that fulfilled both insurance in case Bibby bolted and also a player who could likely match that production that RFM lent to last season's team.
Didn't really make that shorter, did we? Moving on---
Crawford's career numbers are, even on the low side, right at or above the season that RFM provided--so they have that going for them, which is nice. The cost of attaining such assurance, player-wise was insignificant: a finished Speedy Claxton and the disappointing/disliked (by Coach Woodson standards) Acie Law. The price tag (2 more years, 19 more million dollars), however, is what has raised some eyebrows around the Nest, given that with that contract the Hawks, even if Joe Johnson left this coming offseason, wouldn't have enough for a star level contract to replace him.
The question this season around this shall be: Was it worth that kind of commitment to hedge a Bibby bet and/or replace RFM (circa 2008-09)?
Crawford provides a terrific ability to score--so much so that he scared THHB every time he made a shot when he played against the Hawks, as if he was going to go nuclear and go on one of those runs that can paralyze an opponent. His defense had been much maligned everywhere he has gone, but none of those teams have seen the level of bad the Hawks have individually displayed on defense over the years--believe us America when we say: We can cope with it.
That Man's Money and He Doesn't Even Know It
We were very surprised that Zaza Pachulia took (4) years and (19) million dollars to resign with the Hawks. That the Cavaliers spent quite a bit more for a similar player in Anderson Varejao (6 and 50) and Marcin Gortat receiving a full MLE from the Magic should let Hawks fans know how much Zaza wanted to be a Hawk.
Every winning team seems to have a player like Zaza coming off the bench in the frontcourt.
He doesn't really have the ability to block a shot (no seriously, don't wait for any blocks unless Earl Boykins is driving and even then--he's more likely to get knocked down by Zaza than get his stuff thrown out of there.) and he won't be confused with Brad Miller in terms of passing the ball from the center position.
But what he does--oh, he does so well.
He provides precious extra possessions by his ability to offensively rebound.(Zaza was 7th in ORB% among players that played at least 15 mpg last season (basketball reference is king) ). He goes to the basket with reckless abandon---not with the intention of scoring necessarily, but with the intention of his version of a meet-and-greet in the lane, otherwise known as drawing contact. Pachulia's draw foul rate was far and away the best on the Hawks at (25.2) percent (82games.com is also king--remember--we're appeasers!).
He is also the type of annoying presence for the opposition that makes you love that he is on your team. THHB doesn't believe that he is insidious as some other goons might have been on other teams in the past---Zaza brings the nice guy demeanor to the "Screw You Guy" for the opposition to shout at.
No, That's Not a Pseudonym, His Name is Really Joe Smith
He was their big outside the roster free agent signing, and they got him for peanuts. THHB hopes it doesn't end up smelling like elephants.
Smith will provide a more seasoned upgrade for the minutes Solomon Jones logged last year, and if you were certain that Smith would be used more than Jones, then you're saying that he'll thief those minutes from Zaza, Al, or Josh---try that at your own (and the team's) risk.
Smith's playoff seasoning is really encompassed in the last (2) seasons he spent in Cleve-land. Smith provided the same sort of minutes we feel Woody will use Joe for here---a dependable big body off the bench, rather than the "I'm not ready" look that Jones often provided or the cavalcade of projects and D-leaguers the Hawks gave floor time to.
We would have preferred a more impact type role player, like say Drew Gooden, but if the goal was to upgrade the minutes from last season and replace one for one, then Smith (especially for the min price) was a good option. We would just caution not to expect much at all from this role.
In the NBA Draft, Even the Ushers Get the Guy They Really Wanted
Jeff Teague is fast. Maybe the fastest Hawk with the basketball since JT. What Teague does not have that Terry had like crazy is a drop dead jump shot. And in the Hawks stand, dribble, and shoot offense, that may not be such a good fit.
Teague has a nice feel for the ball and delivers it surprisingly well for a guy not even into the seasonal part of his rookie year, but to make the most out of his skill, the Hawks would have to allow him to penetrate and dish or get out on the break and run. Filling the "Mike Bibby" role in the offense does not play to Teague's strengths and would make for some frustrating outings for the young man.
Teague replaces Acie Law as the PG of the Future Du Jour--with an important advantage. Leading up to and through the draft, Hawks GM Rick Sund made it clear that Mike Woodson would have a good part in making this pick. Even on the night of the draft, there was Woodson in the war room, and afterwards Sund made it clear that this was a "team" pick, leaving Woody's fingerprints on the 19th pick. It behooves Woody to not bury Teague on the bench or make him play away from what he does best, so that may end up in the Hawks favor when it comes to the eventual production of this exciting young player.
You Got it Half Right---Which Means You Got it All Wrong
We never believed that Maurice Evans could replace the production of Josh Childress and the stats say it wasn't even close. Evans struggled through massive stretches of play with his outside shot, making the series of games he was hot moot by impact. The offensive rebounding and overall efficiency provided by Childress was missed off the bench and in the spots where Evans was forced to start (25 games last season).
Evans did however prove to be quite a leader and a steady voice of reason, but his play on the court was a little too shaky for a guy who logged over (1800) minutes for a playoff team.
Others Finished with (65) Percent of the Vote and Will Take Office in February.
Randolph Morris, Othello Hunter, and Jason Collins make up the rest of the roster, making the Hawks one of (4) teams to carry the league minimum of (13) players.
Morris is in the last year of a (2) year, minimum level contract and hasn't shown near enough to justify continuing the experiment to this point. He plays smaller than his height, but does have soft hands--it just doesn't amount to a lot on the basketball court at this point.
Hunter is an aggressive, always improving big man who wouldn't be so bad as the Hawks 5th big man, but that role has been given away to a Proven Veteran. Hunter still is very raw, but gives fans what they are looking for from a player so far down on a bench---hustle, aggressiveness, and obvious athleticism.
Collins is the Proven Veteran who will no doubt get the call if Al, Zaza, Josh, and Joe Smith are unable to return to the game. Collins once was an excellent defender but in recent years seems to have lost the fastball. We are interested to see what the big fella (and he does have some serious NBA size) can provide if pressed into duty, but we're getting the feeling that we don't wanna know.
To summarize: The Bench has improved, but one did not have to elevate to the levels of The Namesake to clear the bar set by the previous season's benches.
They're OK, and that is definitely an improvement.
We Watched (27) Minutes of Previews---When Does The Movie Start?!
We've said our peace, now we're ready for the home team to prove us wrong (unbloody likely with our talented scouts and mathematicians on staff here). GameTime is Tomorrow Night---A Home game even!
THHB will appear on The Bill Shanks Show this (Wednesday) afternoon @ 5pm EST (click the link for the live stream if you want to listen in) to talk about the season, players, and all other things Hawks. In other words, just what you have read for the last three days---but in audio form! Seriously, tune in to Bill's show as he actually hosts a show in Georgia that gives a darn about the Hawks and will talk knowledgeably about them .
THHB is amped for the new season. That is all.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
THHB Season Preview, Part Deux: The Starters
After being accused of being a Premiere SourPuss over at Peachtree Hoops yesterday, we turn to the more light hearted assessment section of the Season Preview, a quick look at the five (likely) starters for the Birds in 2009-2010.
So You've Decided to Be an NBA Starter:
Al Horford is a Gator...and this one fact buys plenty of good will when it comes to reviewing, watching, explaining, or anything to do with his game. We love his enthusiasm, athleticism, and all of his intangibles.
He is a very good rebounder and has good timing on shot blocks. He can run the floor better than any center in the East and finishes with what the children in THHB's neighborhood call "authority." He flexes muscles, he shouts at perennial all-stars, and he does all the little things (if you call setting proper picks, moving without the ball offensively, etc. "little") that any club would want a Top 3 pick to crave doing.
We have long pointed our itchy trigger finger at the offensive philosophies of Coach Woodson as a reason for Horford's relative absence on the offensive end. At Florida, he showed he can score from the post---In Atlanta, we've seen bits and pieces of that, but his two seasons with the club, one has to classify such events as "cameos." We've argued that he has been relegated to nothing more than a clean-up-on-aisle-seven fellow in Woody's eyes and therefore has been stunted in his growth as an NBA big man, especially given his offensive gifts.
But, as our Ebenezer Scrooge like Season Preview pointed out, this is unlikely to change. The post is a gimmick in Woodson's perimeter friendly offense, so this is probably an area that will not improve. Horford has little control over this, but we believe that there are places he can make further impact on the offensive end.
Horford sometimes wallflowers on the offensive end, taking his subservient role a little too literally. Horford needs to play with abandon on offense, since it's less likely he would pick up a foul on that end. If he can shed his reserved approach, he can make a serious impact by going stronger to the basket from the post and also not trying to sneak the ball into the hoop, rather, making anybody pay for attempting to distract the ball from going through the rim. We feel we haven't seen the cut-loose Horford yet, the kind of animal that snuck out against the Celtics two seasons ago in the playoffs and then again against the Bulls very early on in last season.
The goal for Al Horford should be to make his presence felt every night he steps on the floor. There were too many games last season where he was just another solid guy---this season needs to be 82+ games of passionate fire on the court from The Godfather.
What Are You Waiting For? Dazzle Me!
In most statistical simulations, there comes a time where potential ceiling for a player's career become par with where he is currently. This usually doesn't occur until someone has played a few seasons in the league and established his baseline.
This might be the last season to push that ceiling up before the baseline is set for Josh Smith.
Sure, there can be tweaks--such as the chatter about eliminating those pesky jump shots, but it's unlikely that Smith will somehow become all-world, or even all-star. We've been waiting to see what he can become---and we may have already seen it.
Now, before that comes across as completely negative, let's add this. What Josh Smith is on nights where he is on it he is a force that can be a steadying as any other on the team. His aggressiveness in regards to deterring shots inside can instantly trigger a break---one in which Smith, with his outstanding speed and ability, can be both initiator and finisher. Offensively last season we saw a player blooming in his ability to finish in a half court set by taking the ball from the wings, head into the lane, and then either draw a foul or finish with a graceful touch around the rim.
Those are the good nights. There are also the bad nights when Smith seems content to stand on certain spots on the floor---as if they had NBA JAM like different point totals underneath where he resided---and launch from the first pass that hits his hands, regardless of whether he could have driven towards the hoop to score in his much more efficient way. It's on those nights defensively where he isn't anywhere to be found inside. Those nights he is erratically jumping passing lanes and leaving the team 4 on 5 until or if Josh gets back into "position." On those nights Smith is a major liability to the Hawks and as the "4" on the team heavily contributes to the Hawks deficiencies on the glass.
THHB feels this is it for Smith. We've long said we wouldn't deal him in a perceived equal value deal, because what he does few can do--and you can't just deal those guys William Nilly. What must be done is to heavily invest in Smith on the nights he has it--and manage his minutes when he doesn't to seem to be locked in.
Here's hoping for a higher ceiling.
He's All Growns Up!
Nobody had a more drastic improvement last season than Marvin Williams. He did it statistically, mentally, and he did so while winning over the fan base with his effort. No moment in the season was more telling than when Marvin returned to the court after missing a few injury plagued weeks. The standing ovation that came was a tribute to what Williams had shown and accomplished in less than a season and what he had become to Bird Watchers.
He made big threes in games--heck, he made threes. He rebounded, ran the floor, got to the line, made his customary mid range shot---he looked like he belonged on the court consistently for the first season in his young career.
The Hawks need him to continue his journey, as his position on the floor requires someone of his skill sets to man. While the won/loss record was alright while he was out, his production and activity on the floor was sorely missed--and understanding that led to the ovation when he returned.
All of that plus his Rubik's Cube abilities, his dumpy walk, and of course, his stunning, all-powerful mustache add up to one of THHB's all-time favorite Hawks and we can't wait to see him back in action.
And Now---The Backcourt
There are games when The Backcourt gets hot from outside and flattens an opponent's resolve. In last season's 3-pt revival, Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson were reverends in the Church of the Long Shot.
The Hawks offense is built around the capability of both guards to score, and Bibby and Johnson do little to shy away from accepting that particular challenge.
Really? Thirty-One Years Old? That's All?
No player makes things more difficult strategically for the Hawks than Mike Bibby. Play him and the defense has to pull together to cover and loses any margin for error given his lack of defensive ability (not effort, ability). Take him out and the Hawks offense loses a prime integral weapon that it needs to succeed; a cold sniper who will make teams pay for leaving him alone.
Bibby also tosses one of the best rim-lobs in the game---and given Smith and Horford's abilities to finish such passes, they make for pretty tasty plays.
There's talk about limiting the number of minutes Mike plays throughout the season, but it will largely depend on how both Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague pick up the slack when he sits. THHB guesses there is a reason why the Hawks felt it necessary to lock him down for (3) more seasons---when you finally get your triggerman for your offense, you ride him until he rides out into the sunset.
Three Time All Star
Miscast as a star, but not as an all-in-one workhorse--Joe Johnson can do anything on the basketball court short of playing all five positions at the same time. It's not the minutes per game that trouble THHB most (although we frown upon it), it's the type of minutes he has to play. Johnson routinely matches up on the toughest defensive assignment, then takes the ball on offense and, in a lot of games, grinds out the production needed on that end. It might say (40) minutes in the box score, but it's (125) in Joe Minutes.
If he were a running back in the NFL, he would be getting 40 carries a game. The Hawks have to find ways to distribute the workload to others to get the most efficient play they can from Joe.
THHB hopes that fans enjoy watching Joe, because he is one of the special players to have worn the Hawks uniform. His late game heroics, his killer sauce, ungodly range, and his give me the ball mentality at any point in the game, and ultimately his production has to be acknowledged and admired.
He is in the last year of his contract and who knows---maybe he will choose to take on a different role with another team next season after wearing the badge of Best Player on the Hawks since his arrival. If so, take a long look this season---what he gives is a lot harder to replace than you might think.
We already pitched in a few bucks to try and get Marvin Williams on Dancing With The Stars, so contributing to Joe's new contract is out of the question. THHB continues the Season Preview with Part Three: The Bench on Wednesday.
So You've Decided to Be an NBA Starter:
Al Horford is a Gator...and this one fact buys plenty of good will when it comes to reviewing, watching, explaining, or anything to do with his game. We love his enthusiasm, athleticism, and all of his intangibles.
He is a very good rebounder and has good timing on shot blocks. He can run the floor better than any center in the East and finishes with what the children in THHB's neighborhood call "authority." He flexes muscles, he shouts at perennial all-stars, and he does all the little things (if you call setting proper picks, moving without the ball offensively, etc. "little") that any club would want a Top 3 pick to crave doing.
We have long pointed our itchy trigger finger at the offensive philosophies of Coach Woodson as a reason for Horford's relative absence on the offensive end. At Florida, he showed he can score from the post---In Atlanta, we've seen bits and pieces of that, but his two seasons with the club, one has to classify such events as "cameos." We've argued that he has been relegated to nothing more than a clean-up-on-aisle-seven fellow in Woody's eyes and therefore has been stunted in his growth as an NBA big man, especially given his offensive gifts.
But, as our Ebenezer Scrooge like Season Preview pointed out, this is unlikely to change. The post is a gimmick in Woodson's perimeter friendly offense, so this is probably an area that will not improve. Horford has little control over this, but we believe that there are places he can make further impact on the offensive end.
Horford sometimes wallflowers on the offensive end, taking his subservient role a little too literally. Horford needs to play with abandon on offense, since it's less likely he would pick up a foul on that end. If he can shed his reserved approach, he can make a serious impact by going stronger to the basket from the post and also not trying to sneak the ball into the hoop, rather, making anybody pay for attempting to distract the ball from going through the rim. We feel we haven't seen the cut-loose Horford yet, the kind of animal that snuck out against the Celtics two seasons ago in the playoffs and then again against the Bulls very early on in last season.
The goal for Al Horford should be to make his presence felt every night he steps on the floor. There were too many games last season where he was just another solid guy---this season needs to be 82+ games of passionate fire on the court from The Godfather.
What Are You Waiting For? Dazzle Me!
In most statistical simulations, there comes a time where potential ceiling for a player's career become par with where he is currently. This usually doesn't occur until someone has played a few seasons in the league and established his baseline.
This might be the last season to push that ceiling up before the baseline is set for Josh Smith.
Sure, there can be tweaks--such as the chatter about eliminating those pesky jump shots, but it's unlikely that Smith will somehow become all-world, or even all-star. We've been waiting to see what he can become---and we may have already seen it.
Now, before that comes across as completely negative, let's add this. What Josh Smith is on nights where he is on it he is a force that can be a steadying as any other on the team. His aggressiveness in regards to deterring shots inside can instantly trigger a break---one in which Smith, with his outstanding speed and ability, can be both initiator and finisher. Offensively last season we saw a player blooming in his ability to finish in a half court set by taking the ball from the wings, head into the lane, and then either draw a foul or finish with a graceful touch around the rim.
Those are the good nights. There are also the bad nights when Smith seems content to stand on certain spots on the floor---as if they had NBA JAM like different point totals underneath where he resided---and launch from the first pass that hits his hands, regardless of whether he could have driven towards the hoop to score in his much more efficient way. It's on those nights defensively where he isn't anywhere to be found inside. Those nights he is erratically jumping passing lanes and leaving the team 4 on 5 until or if Josh gets back into "position." On those nights Smith is a major liability to the Hawks and as the "4" on the team heavily contributes to the Hawks deficiencies on the glass.
THHB feels this is it for Smith. We've long said we wouldn't deal him in a perceived equal value deal, because what he does few can do--and you can't just deal those guys William Nilly. What must be done is to heavily invest in Smith on the nights he has it--and manage his minutes when he doesn't to seem to be locked in.
Here's hoping for a higher ceiling.
He's All Growns Up!
Nobody had a more drastic improvement last season than Marvin Williams. He did it statistically, mentally, and he did so while winning over the fan base with his effort. No moment in the season was more telling than when Marvin returned to the court after missing a few injury plagued weeks. The standing ovation that came was a tribute to what Williams had shown and accomplished in less than a season and what he had become to Bird Watchers.
He made big threes in games--heck, he made threes. He rebounded, ran the floor, got to the line, made his customary mid range shot---he looked like he belonged on the court consistently for the first season in his young career.
The Hawks need him to continue his journey, as his position on the floor requires someone of his skill sets to man. While the won/loss record was alright while he was out, his production and activity on the floor was sorely missed--and understanding that led to the ovation when he returned.
All of that plus his Rubik's Cube abilities, his dumpy walk, and of course, his stunning, all-powerful mustache add up to one of THHB's all-time favorite Hawks and we can't wait to see him back in action.
And Now---The Backcourt
There are games when The Backcourt gets hot from outside and flattens an opponent's resolve. In last season's 3-pt revival, Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson were reverends in the Church of the Long Shot.
The Hawks offense is built around the capability of both guards to score, and Bibby and Johnson do little to shy away from accepting that particular challenge.
Really? Thirty-One Years Old? That's All?
No player makes things more difficult strategically for the Hawks than Mike Bibby. Play him and the defense has to pull together to cover and loses any margin for error given his lack of defensive ability (not effort, ability). Take him out and the Hawks offense loses a prime integral weapon that it needs to succeed; a cold sniper who will make teams pay for leaving him alone.
Bibby also tosses one of the best rim-lobs in the game---and given Smith and Horford's abilities to finish such passes, they make for pretty tasty plays.
There's talk about limiting the number of minutes Mike plays throughout the season, but it will largely depend on how both Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague pick up the slack when he sits. THHB guesses there is a reason why the Hawks felt it necessary to lock him down for (3) more seasons---when you finally get your triggerman for your offense, you ride him until he rides out into the sunset.
Three Time All Star
Miscast as a star, but not as an all-in-one workhorse--Joe Johnson can do anything on the basketball court short of playing all five positions at the same time. It's not the minutes per game that trouble THHB most (although we frown upon it), it's the type of minutes he has to play. Johnson routinely matches up on the toughest defensive assignment, then takes the ball on offense and, in a lot of games, grinds out the production needed on that end. It might say (40) minutes in the box score, but it's (125) in Joe Minutes.
If he were a running back in the NFL, he would be getting 40 carries a game. The Hawks have to find ways to distribute the workload to others to get the most efficient play they can from Joe.
THHB hopes that fans enjoy watching Joe, because he is one of the special players to have worn the Hawks uniform. His late game heroics, his killer sauce, ungodly range, and his give me the ball mentality at any point in the game, and ultimately his production has to be acknowledged and admired.
He is in the last year of his contract and who knows---maybe he will choose to take on a different role with another team next season after wearing the badge of Best Player on the Hawks since his arrival. If so, take a long look this season---what he gives is a lot harder to replace than you might think.
We already pitched in a few bucks to try and get Marvin Williams on Dancing With The Stars, so contributing to Joe's new contract is out of the question. THHB continues the Season Preview with Part Three: The Bench on Wednesday.
Monday, October 26, 2009
THHB Season Preview, Part One: The Season
Finally. We can see it. The lights, the glamour, the fireworks, and the residual smoke filled arena at tip off.
It's time for the regular season. The 12th man has had their time in the publicity sun, but the now is to focus on the guys who will play and more about what we think is in store for the club in the 2009-2010 season.
Part One: The Season
As we left our heroes at the end of the 2nd Round Defeat at the hands of the Cleve-land Cavaliers, we summarized the season that had been, laid out the issues, and made the following observations regarding key pain points:
Then, the Hawks entered the offseason, and we lent our thoughts about the moves the Hawks made to our prehistoric friends over at Heels on Hardwood:
And while we were gone, there was plenty of reasons to think that we might change our minds (in no particular order):
Josh Smith reigning in the temptation to launch
The rookie, Jeff Teague, making an impact
A Basketball Prospectus endorsed optimistic (for the most part) look at the franchise
And, of course, the proof that the Hawks were serious about improving their bench--no, not a link to the Joe Smith signing, but the last days of Flubber West (for now).
So now--armed with a month's worth of optimism and momentum, would THHB be able to see around their earlier summation and deliver a flowery preview of what's to come?
Well---no.
The Hawks are what they want to be: A talented, quick team that will do very well against those who they can out-talent to win games and struggle against the teams that are truly worthy of championship consideration.
We partially come to this conclusion based on the truth (our truth, we admit) that the Hawks approach to the offensive end of the floor cannot pass muster against solid defensive teams---the types of teams you see in, oh, you know, the higher rounds of the playoffs.
It came as no surprise to us to watch the Hawks final preseasonal effort in Orlando--a game which does not in itself condemn the franchise, rather confirms it. The team looked the same as it ever did the season before, with new players playing the parts of those who are no more--which was Jamal Crawford for RFM and Jeff Teague for Acie Law. They stayed on the outside offensively, couldn't get shots to fall, got drilled on the inside and outside on the defensive end, and showed little fight or energy while doing it. In short, it looked like a reprise of the games the Hawks played against the Elite of the East last season. Yes, it was a preseason game, but one in which it was clear both teams were trying as if regular season--at least until it was out of hand. And we aren't the only ones who thought so..
Why should we have expected anything different? The coaching staff did not change, so why guess that the philosophy of isolation and up top hand-offs would differ? This team will dribble-dribble-dribble-pass-shoot more often than not, and due to their advanced talent level will be able to overcome lesser teams, but the teams that matter--the teams they will face once they make the playoffs--will be set defensively and grateful that the Hawks have made their jobs considerably easier by holding the basketball in a single space on the floor as long as they do.
That the front office doubled down on the status quo with their moves in the off-season while not extending the chief architect's (Mike Woodson's deal ends at the end of this season) contract was telling in that they believe they have the talent to win big, but not sure about the basketball philosophy that's wrapped around it. You can't expect a different paradigm from the same people--that's why organizations make changes even while winning. If this style doesn't scale up again this year, THHB would expect a change in approach before the next season begins.
Defensively, the Hawks have yet to address their most glaring need over the off-season---the need to defend the glass. As the Hawks plucked a considered upgrade to their backup PG position (Teague v.Law), they passed on a player that could have helped them in this perennially problematic area (Dejuan Blair). In the free agency period, they signed their own, traded for a reasonably sure bet to repeat RFM's input from last season (since RFM himself was unlikely to), and brought in more seasoned front court players (Joe Smith, Jason Collins) who add experience, but not that which will impact change for this season on the glass.
Also, as Mike Bibby will continue to be a liability on the defensive end, they will either play Bibby less, which could impact the offensive efficiency even more, or hope for Josh Smith to be a larger presence in deterring shots inside when teams inevitably take advantage. Should Smith take more chances defensively to that end, the Hawks must be better at rotating defensively, lest they be even worse on the glass and give up more second chance baskets. This could certainly fall under the category of wishful thinking.
Why so glum, chum? Well, re-read those last few paragraphs---and tell us to start dreaming of conference finals. Oh, we'll enjoy the season that is (we promise!), as it will likely be filled with wins and great plays by a team with great talent. But we're not under the illusion that we'll be taking "The Next Step" under the same flawed basketball premises.
Now, as far as actual win totals guesses go, we're not good at predicting wins, else we would be practicing a different vocation. But given the relative shakiness of the health of the team last season, and the talent that lay still within, it makes sense to us that the Hawks should be able to attain the same amount of wins that Pythagoras deemed the Hawks worthy last season (46), even if other teams have stepped their rosters up as well.
From a Hawks historian angle, this is a good thing---consecutive winning seasons and relevance in the NBA are items that should be on every fan's checklist. They will on the majority of nights be the better team and perform as such, but will lack the fundamental basketball strength to push past the better teams consistently. If you have watched the team since the beginning of this decade, these are not things upon which to sneer---but if you have a desire to see more from the team you love, you should be braced for disappointment.
Hey, at least they'll mostly do it in HD.
Official THHB Record Prediction: Playoff Bound Atlanta Hawks, 46-36.
THHB wants to make it clear that they once again welcome the lack of stink emanating from the Philips Arena floor--and we are not talking about the Circus. Coming Tuesday--Part Two: The Starters
It's time for the regular season. The 12th man has had their time in the publicity sun, but the now is to focus on the guys who will play and more about what we think is in store for the club in the 2009-2010 season.
Part One: The Season
As we left our heroes at the end of the 2nd Round Defeat at the hands of the Cleve-land Cavaliers, we summarized the season that had been, laid out the issues, and made the following observations regarding key pain points:
Josh Smith and His Many Ways to Confound, Frustrate, and Entertain (and produce).
Constant slow starts at the beginning of games as the Hawks would try to take the other team's basketball temperature to see how hard they would have to play for that night. This would be commonly referred to by the team themselves as "coming out flat".
Offensive game plans that amounted to little more than dribble down, make a pass, and then stand around and watch that chosen player break his man down one-on-one and see what happens. At the end of games, this would be referred to as "Watching Joe Johnson".
Poor defensive efforts that would start with Mike Bibby struggling to maintain his man or, worse still, constant switching that would create whatever matchup the other team wanted to see. It's no Rubik's Cube when everybody knows how to solve that little mystery.
The Atlanta Hawks feature a talented young roster that on some nights can out-athleticize and out-shoot most teams in the NBA. This works against less talented teams in the league, but it doesn't scale to good teams, or on the road, and certainly not when both those factors are in play.
Then, the Hawks entered the offseason, and we lent our thoughts about the moves the Hawks made to our prehistoric friends over at Heels on Hardwood:
The Hawks made a lot of headlines in the off season by fully accomplishing their own “To Do” list.That was a little over a month ago. Since then, THHB has had time to get away from the think tank, the war room brainstorming arena, and various other rooms of the office and let the past season and subsequent offseason breathe with the intent to gather again, discuss things anew, and mark fresh opinions and bring forth perhaps a change of heart regarding the outlook of this season's Hawks.
They acquired Jamal Crawford from GS for two reasons; Insurance in case Mike Bibby didn’t resign and to ensure they would get at least some productivity from the first bench guard position that Ronald “Flip” Murray provided on last season’s (47) win team. They drafted Jeff Teague with the #19 pick, a player they highly regarded for his ability to handle the ball and create for himself. They then went about resigning Bibby and backup center Zaza Pachulia, both for either at or below market value. Marvin Williams was the last of the Hawks own free agents to sign and, despite his restricted free
Last season the Hawks grabbed home court advantage by beating the lesser teams in the conference, but stalled significantly when it came to the better teams in the East (read: better defenses, too), mustering only a 2-10 record against the Celtics, Magic, and Cavaliers. Part of the problem was a dependence on isolation and 1 on 1 offensive basketball, often leaving them too late in the shot clock to get good shots. It worked out against teams that struggled defensively, but was a prominent issue against the good teams who don’t have a problem holding down half court D for 24 seconds. Another regular issue for the Hawks is defensive rebounding, where the Hawks again finished in the second half in the league in the category.
Bringing in Crawford and Teague highlighted that the team is alright with the strategy offensively, as both players fit that dribble and shoot motif. But, the additions of Joe Smith and Jason Collins, do little to address the rebounding needs. Essentially, the Hawks have decided to double down on last year’s strategy and success, leaving THHB to believe it will be more of the same in 2009-2010: A talented team that will achieve similar win column success, but will do little to raise itself to the next level.
And while we were gone, there was plenty of reasons to think that we might change our minds (in no particular order):
Josh Smith reigning in the temptation to launch
The rookie, Jeff Teague, making an impact
A Basketball Prospectus endorsed optimistic (for the most part) look at the franchise
And, of course, the proof that the Hawks were serious about improving their bench--no, not a link to the Joe Smith signing, but the last days of Flubber West (for now).
So now--armed with a month's worth of optimism and momentum, would THHB be able to see around their earlier summation and deliver a flowery preview of what's to come?
Well---no.
The Hawks are what they want to be: A talented, quick team that will do very well against those who they can out-talent to win games and struggle against the teams that are truly worthy of championship consideration.
We partially come to this conclusion based on the truth (our truth, we admit) that the Hawks approach to the offensive end of the floor cannot pass muster against solid defensive teams---the types of teams you see in, oh, you know, the higher rounds of the playoffs.
It came as no surprise to us to watch the Hawks final preseasonal effort in Orlando--a game which does not in itself condemn the franchise, rather confirms it. The team looked the same as it ever did the season before, with new players playing the parts of those who are no more--which was Jamal Crawford for RFM and Jeff Teague for Acie Law. They stayed on the outside offensively, couldn't get shots to fall, got drilled on the inside and outside on the defensive end, and showed little fight or energy while doing it. In short, it looked like a reprise of the games the Hawks played against the Elite of the East last season. Yes, it was a preseason game, but one in which it was clear both teams were trying as if regular season--at least until it was out of hand. And we aren't the only ones who thought so..
Why should we have expected anything different? The coaching staff did not change, so why guess that the philosophy of isolation and up top hand-offs would differ? This team will dribble-dribble-dribble-pass-shoot more often than not, and due to their advanced talent level will be able to overcome lesser teams, but the teams that matter--the teams they will face once they make the playoffs--will be set defensively and grateful that the Hawks have made their jobs considerably easier by holding the basketball in a single space on the floor as long as they do.
That the front office doubled down on the status quo with their moves in the off-season while not extending the chief architect's (Mike Woodson's deal ends at the end of this season) contract was telling in that they believe they have the talent to win big, but not sure about the basketball philosophy that's wrapped around it. You can't expect a different paradigm from the same people--that's why organizations make changes even while winning. If this style doesn't scale up again this year, THHB would expect a change in approach before the next season begins.
Defensively, the Hawks have yet to address their most glaring need over the off-season---the need to defend the glass. As the Hawks plucked a considered upgrade to their backup PG position (Teague v.Law), they passed on a player that could have helped them in this perennially problematic area (Dejuan Blair). In the free agency period, they signed their own, traded for a reasonably sure bet to repeat RFM's input from last season (since RFM himself was unlikely to), and brought in more seasoned front court players (Joe Smith, Jason Collins) who add experience, but not that which will impact change for this season on the glass.
Also, as Mike Bibby will continue to be a liability on the defensive end, they will either play Bibby less, which could impact the offensive efficiency even more, or hope for Josh Smith to be a larger presence in deterring shots inside when teams inevitably take advantage. Should Smith take more chances defensively to that end, the Hawks must be better at rotating defensively, lest they be even worse on the glass and give up more second chance baskets. This could certainly fall under the category of wishful thinking.
Why so glum, chum? Well, re-read those last few paragraphs---and tell us to start dreaming of conference finals. Oh, we'll enjoy the season that is (we promise!), as it will likely be filled with wins and great plays by a team with great talent. But we're not under the illusion that we'll be taking "The Next Step" under the same flawed basketball premises.
Now, as far as actual win totals guesses go, we're not good at predicting wins, else we would be practicing a different vocation. But given the relative shakiness of the health of the team last season, and the talent that lay still within, it makes sense to us that the Hawks should be able to attain the same amount of wins that Pythagoras deemed the Hawks worthy last season (46), even if other teams have stepped their rosters up as well.
From a Hawks historian angle, this is a good thing---consecutive winning seasons and relevance in the NBA are items that should be on every fan's checklist. They will on the majority of nights be the better team and perform as such, but will lack the fundamental basketball strength to push past the better teams consistently. If you have watched the team since the beginning of this decade, these are not things upon which to sneer---but if you have a desire to see more from the team you love, you should be braced for disappointment.
Hey, at least they'll mostly do it in HD.
Official THHB Record Prediction: Playoff Bound Atlanta Hawks, 46-36.
THHB wants to make it clear that they once again welcome the lack of stink emanating from the Philips Arena floor--and we are not talking about the Circus. Coming Tuesday--Part Two: The Starters
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