Luka Doncic Rumor: Seven Thoughts about the latest ESPN news

This will look a lot like the tweets I sent out yesterday when rumors of the Kings and Hawks passing on Luka Doncic started rolling from my old friend (from DraftCity days at RealGM) Jonathan Givony of ESPN. There is a lot to review as far as the emotions one might feel with such news about a prominent prospect in an upcoming draft. As Hawks fans, especially, there can be strong feelings of fear about the draft, after all. So here are some thoughts about this rumor, with a bit more commentary than the Twitter offering yesterday. 

1. They have already been told to pass by Doncic camp. It is possible that, already, the Luke Doncic representation has reached out to teams in the lottery that are a hard pass for Doncic, thereby using the leverage of Euroleague to help shape his destination. It's smart to do this, to pick a specific place that Doncic and his folks feel are better fits for him than, say, the Kings or the Hawks. Let's say he can steer himself to the Cavs at 8 (considering LBJ, of course) or the Sixers at 10. Is not that better, on paper, than taking on the Kings or the rebuilding Hawks or even Dallas? Makes sense. So if that conversation has already happened, then it behooves the Hawks or Kings to maybe get out in front of the rejection by saying, hey, we'd rather a big than Doncic.

2. Two words: Smoke Screen One tradition of the lead up to the NBA Draft is that teams are constantly putting out misinformation for many reasons, usually to disguise the actual intent of that team so that another won't steal their guy. Mayyyybe, the Kings and Hawks are engaging in such chicanery here, who knows.

3. There are legit concerns about how some of the interior playmaking will translate to NBA. Mentioned this in the latest look at each of the prospects (see recent articles), but watching Doncic he relies on a lot of savvy ball moves to create space and to get into the lane. Will those same avenues be available in a quicker, lengthier NBA? It is enough to question, even if you cannot question his Elite vision, CourtIQ or shooting.

4. MOAR BAMBA This could also be called MOAR JJJ or MOAR Bagley, but the Hawks might feel it is more difficult to find a defining five out there than a playmaking guard. And they might be right. The difference is that all three of those guys have lower floors than Doncic, who I said in that last summary article that he has the best chance of reaching his 80th percentile career outcome.
5. Priming the pump to take potential offers. Nothing sends a signal to teams looking to trade up than saying you might not be interested in a premium prospect others might covet. Leaking information to press is a good way to get the word out.

6. Lord please, not another Chris Paul fiasco. This is the biggest gulp the Hawks fans will deal with if the Hawks do have a chance to draft Doncic and pass to take a big. Sooooo many draft pundits had Marvin Williams high on the board with elite measurements, etc. And while there those of us who were desperate for the type of elite leadership and PG skills Chris Paul showed at Wake Forest, there were definitely others who saw the ceiling potential of Marvin and wanted to go that route. It turns out as the biggest miss in Hawks draft history since 2000 (have to qualify because the overall draft miss list is staggering). Even the disaster of the Shelden Williams guarantee, which is the actual bigger mess of a draft than this one, doesn't match the agony of passing on CP3 to take Marvin. 7. And this is the most important: It is early and we will hear way more misdirection than truth. There are 31 days until the draft -- too get too committed to NBA gossip and rumors so soon will eave you an emotional wreck, twisted in 1000 different ways by the time Adam Silver opens the 2018 NBA Draft. Have you other thoughts about the Doncic rumor? Feel free to talk about it in the Comments Area or single me out on Twitter @JasonWalkerNBA.

ATL-MEM Game Review: Sorry Memphis, No Slumpbusters Here

You could feel for the Grizzlies, you really could.

Memphis is experiencing a good season, one in which their throwaway off-season acquisition (Zach Randolph) has turned into an All-Star and their young core (Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley) is beginning to come together. However, coming into their Tuesday night home game against the Hawks, they were in the throws of a three game losing streak, something that in the Western Conference can drop you behind teams very quickly. As it was, Memphis woke up Tuesday and found themselves at the bottom of the (12) teams in the West above (.500).

However friendly these Hawks are face-to-face, they were not in any position to offer on-the-court charity to the Grizzlies, chasing the Magic in their own division and not wanting to fall any further under .500 on the road (they entered the game a single notch below). In the end the Hawks would use an aggressive approach on offense, a tight second half defense, and Jamal Crawford to nab a quality 108-94 win in Memphis.

The game started with Joe Johnson hitting (5) points on the first two Hawks possessions. If THHB told you that Joe would score (6) more for the other 47:44 minutes in the game, you might have thought we had the wrong result in the previous paragraph. But trust us---our eyes hath not deceived us.

The Hawks played good enough offense in the first half against a team that, while they are offensively exciting at times--especially in transition, is a borderline bottom five defense in the league. Defensively, the Hawks struggled as Memphis took off in transition after makes and misses, scoring some easier points as Atlanta was slow to get back and defend. When Gay made a free throw with 2:19 left in the first half, the Grizzlies led 53-44. What came next was a (9) point run by Marvin Williams and Al Horford and when the horn sounded, the MEM lead was down to 55-53.

Williams was the aggressor all night, taking the ball to the basket and scoring on six of his eight shots inside the three point arc. He also helped keep the league's leading Offensive Rebounding Rate team down to moderately low (10) offensive rebounds.by grabbing (6) defensive boards of his own to go with his (15) points on the night.

The Hawks outscored the Grizzlies by (9) in a third quarter that saw the Atlanta defense quicker back on defense, rebounding well, and getting Memphis to shoot more from the outside. The margin might have been larger if not for some extremely careless ball handling by Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford (3 turnovers) in transition opportunities. But after Smith committed his third turnover with 4:22 left in the third quarter, the Hawks would not lose the ball again until Woodson emptied the bench in the fourth, a 13:32 span.

During that stretch, the Hawks turned the Grizzlies over (4) times and outscored their hosts 37-18 with half (OK, more than half--19) of those points coming off the considerably warm fingertips of Jamal Crawford.

Well, now me and Homer Jones and Big John Talley
Had a big crap game goin' back in the alley
And I kept rollin' them sevens
Heh heh, winnin' all them pots
My luck was so good I could do no wrong
I jest kept on rollin' and controllin' them bones
And finally they jest threw up their hands and said
'When you hot, you hot'


-Jerry Reed, 1971

Folks, Crawford was hot. 7-10 with (2) assists and (19) points in those deciding minutes of the game. That streak included (3) threes, but he was just as crafty getting to the rim as well. He is fun to watch when he is on---you expect to hear the old NBA JAM announcer bellow "He's On Fire!" when he gets going as he was in Memphis Tuesday night.


Riding the Fiery Trail Through Graceland

Separate from Crawford, the rest of the Hawks had a good shooting night as well, putting a (55) percent field goal number up on the board. In all, (5) Hawks joined Crawford in double digits, including Mike Bibby--who put 11 points/6 assists up in a half a game's work (22 minutes).

Al Horford won the battle of the efficient, yet underused centers battle with Marc Gasol, despite the latter's attempt to channel his inner Sabonis with hooking arms chicanery and lower body shoving as Horford swept through the lane offensively. Horford scored his usual (15) points on a mere (7) shots, blending the inside with the outside fluently. He also made inside life difficult for Gasol, who managed to only make (3) of his (7) shots. Horford was a game high (+21) while Gasol was a game low (-23). Yahtzee!

The Hawks blocked only (3) shots on the night, but two came on what has to be considered the play of the night for the Hawks. Early in the second half Memphis got ahead of the Hawks in transition and OJ Mayo was ready to lay it in for the finish. When he let the ball go Marvin came from behind for the block. Sadly, the ball landed in the hands of Zach Randolph, who was ready to quickly finish his gift for two points. That was the plan, until Josh Smith quickly got between the rim and the ball and put the whammy on such plans. Nice.

In the shadows of Crawford and the team's excellent shooting night was the all around numbers that Josh and Al put up in the game. Smith finished with 7-10, 17 point, 6 rebound, 4 assist, 3 steals, and a block night while Al countered with his 5-7, 15 point, 8 rebound, 4 assist, 3 steal night of his own.When the frontcourt is active and involved, that makes it easier for Johnson and Crawford, especially against a willing defense like Memphis, and nets the Hawks a lot of wins.

THHB's Top 10 Hawks of the Decade: Number Eight

As always, we invite you to check out our other End of the Hawks Decade articles:

A Decade of Hawks Aughts (and Aught-Nots),

Top Hawks by Statistical Category

THHB's Top 10 (and more) Hawks of the Decade, #10, #9

Today we look at a player that will be in the center of what-if discussions for the next decade to come. His mere presence on the roster, his role on the team, and what his ceiling may/may not be are topics that are almost impossible to gain consensus among even the most fervent of Bird Watchers.

Our Number Eight Hawk of the Decade is:

Marvin Williams


Any discussion on Marvin Williams and his presence in the Atlanta Hawks has to begin (to the chagrin of many Hawks fans) with the 2005 NBA Draft.

Setting the scene:

The Hawks were coming off a miserable (13) win season and had drafted two young guard/forward types in the 2004 draft (Josh Childress, Josh Smith), thereby beginning to bring the Billy Knight vision to the court.

The Hawks ended up with the #2 pick in the draft and was likely looking at any of what was considered by many to be the Top 4 players in the draft: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams.

The draft was widely considered to be one of the best for point guard position in some time, a position long needed for the Hawks, a search that we dwelled on at some length in this entry. The Hawks ended that woebegone season with the following players starting (at some part of the season) at the point.

Player (Starts)

Tyronn Lue (46)
Kenny Anderson (20)
Boris Diaw  (11)
Royal Ivey  (5)

Shouldn't have to tell you (and their record did if you needed to be told) but that mess was screaming for assistance from Billy Knight to improve that position in the starting lineup. And no, taking Diaw out to the point was not the droid they were looking for.

So, as the draft approached, the Hawks worked out Paul and Williams, who fit this need, as well as looking at the players who could potentially fall into the "best available player" category, which included Williams, as evidenced by the write-ups leading up to the draft.

DraftExpress

At this point, all we know is that Marvin Williams is going to be a promising forward in the NBA and is most likely a top five pick or possibly even the first overall pick whenever he decides to leave North Carolina. Unfortunately, it’s just way too early to speculate specifically what kind of player he will develop into.

 

ESPN-Chad Ford

Williams is Insider's No. 1-ranked player in the draft. He's a versatile forward who can play both inside and out. Still developing but has the trappings of a superstar.

SI--Ian Thomsen

Has size, skills and savvy to help transform Atlanta into an exciting, up-tempo team. 

ESPN's (and Hawks Nation's own) Hoopinion:

 I thought Luol Deng was a moderately risky pick last year. I was wrong. Similarly, Williams should thrive in the extra space created by the depth of the NBA three-point line. I'd put Williams down the list of my Rookie of the Year favorites, but most likely to be the best player from the draft in five, eight, and ten years.

Billy Knight, by all admissions, eschewed the long held tradition of identifying a point guard in the lineup. "Guards are guards" he most famously said upon being asked who he saw running the point. To most accounts, he was not impressed with Chris Paul's size and wasn't sure if Deron Williams was so sure a thing as not to pass on the best available player. So there was decent consensus when, to the dismay of those who believe in resolving things like the post and the point, Knight passed on the point guards and selected the talented Williams.

Looking back, it's clear that it was Chris Paul that was the best player in that draft and he filled a Hawks need--and that, combined with Williams not yet realizing the ceiling that some might have thought possible for him, is what leads this discussion when Marvin's Hawk status comes up.

Because of the gamble of future potential over filling what folks other than Billy Knight thought was a need, there was some anticipation as to whether this (19) year old could capture the fans imagination such as the potential and athleticism displayed by Josh Smith had the year before.

But since much of Marvin's skill lay within the confines of the jump shot, this was not something that was going to jump out at fans. One of Williams' other skills, running the floor and finishing, was stunted by the lack of a starting caliber point guard to make that happen.The fact that Joe Johnson, whose ball handling skills and hopeful acquisition from Phoenix may also have persuaded Knight to pass on a point in the draft, isn't a run-the-floor ball handler may have interrupted that as well.

Marvin spent the next seasons finding his spot on the floor and role on the team, a process eased by the fulfillment of the promise of great work ethic and character lauded from his year in Chapel Hill. Marvin's obvious good nature and effort kept the erupting of Chris Paul into an All-Star into full fledged resentment of Marvin by the Hawks faithful.

Prior to the 2008-2009 season, Williams had hit a miserable 25-108 (23 percent) from beyond the 3-pt line. In '08-'09, Williams extended his range to hit 55-155 (35 percent) and took a visible step forward in his development and role in the Hawks first winning season since 1999.

The development and improvement was such that it was the first season he began to emerge from his draft slot shadow and be embraced for what he is rather than what one might have thought him to become. Marvin missed almost the entire month of March w/injury. When he returned, in a home game against the Indiana Pacers, Williams was given a standing ovation, an indication that his absence was certainly felt.

This season, Williams has not been able to build on the improvements of last season for a variety of reasons. One is the arrival of Jamal Crawford, who has a Joe Johnson like Usage Rate and therefore gobbles up extra possessions that might have found their way to Marvin last season, leading to less minutes and shot attempts per game (Williams' Usage is also down from last year while Crawford uses a bit more possessions and minutes than did Flip Murray last season.)

Another is some amount of bad luck, as Marvin has been able (for the most part) to maintain his effectiveness on his jump shots but has missed an aberrant number of shots around the basket. If he had been able to maintain last year's success rate on shots under 10 feet, he would have another (7) baskets made, which would raise his shooting percentage above (46) percent, higher than last year's number.

Marvin was signed to an extension (5 years, 40 million) this past off-season, but his future role and impact on the team remains a mystery. He has shown flashes of being able to be a scorer when Joe Johnson is out, highlighted by his (20) free throw effort against the Bobcats last season. Some have suggested he would be an ideal sixth man, or seventh man in the wake of Crawford's role, providing another strong scoring option off the bench. As it is, Marvin remains in the starting lineup, picking his spots on offense while playing solid ball on the defensive end, making his abilities to perhaps score more or take on a larger role on the team a luxury for the Hawks.

Fortunately Williams is a company man, ready and willing to be used in any capacity, and this is a trait that shows on the outside as well, making him very easy to like as a fan. His story, talent, work ethic, intangibles (see video below), and his all-star caliber mustache (of course) make him our Number Eight Hawk of the Decade.

SAC-ATL Game Review: Straight Shooting (Or Not)

Midway through this 2009-2010 season, the Atlanta Hawks have (27) wins.

Staggering to think about, eh--especially as pundits such as this fire shots across the Hawks bow. The Hawks are in first place in their division and are on pace for a whopping (54) wins.

Though it led to that 27th win, the game Wednesday night was nothing much to get excited about, though there were some exciting bursts of entertainment along the way to the Hawks' 108-97 dismissal of the Sacramento Kings. The team started slow as the Kings attacked the Hawks inside and the Hawks were overplaying the perimeter to account for Kevin Martin and Tyreke Evans, but the team adjusted (gasp!) and the Kings scoring opportunities began to get a lot harder.

The Kings shot 10-38 from beyond (10) feet. Ten feet! That's a marvelous (26) percent for those w/o calculators.

The main culprit was the rookie Evans who, while he may look Joe Johnson going inside, shoots like Joe Mama from the outside. According to Hoopdata.com, for the season, Evans is shooting 184-310 (59 percent) on shots labeled "at the rim" and a gum spitting 101-305 (33 percent) from anywhere but there. To put this into some perspective---Josh Smith is 64-204 from the same range--a close 31 percent and a comparable place that we're guessing neither Evans nor the Kings want him to stay for long. Against the Hawks Evans was 7-9 at the rim and 2-8 otherwise, with most of the damage coming in that early action and then when Flubber West was assigned to defend him (more on that later).

Meanwhile the Hawks used a balanced distribution of shots and assists on their way to a (29) assist, (51) percent shooting night. Of those assists, (19) were to baskets within (10) feet, with (15) of those right at the rim. Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, and even Marvin Williams found their way into double digits in scoring and contributed more points than the possessions they used. That's a winning combination and a tasty recipe for more wins.

And with the Kings still in some kind of striking distance in the fourth quarter, the Hawks even went into the post to Horford and Smith (Sidenote: It seemed like they went to the post more in the fourth quarter than throughout the rest of the game.) to stabilize the offense and fend off the Kings last rally.

Stuff We Found While Chasing Down Another Tyreke Evans Jump Shot

With Tyreke Evans obvious shortcomings from the outside, we were surprised that Woodson elected to go to Mario "Flubber" West to defend him in the third quarter. Flubber plays notoriously close defense on everybody, can't or won't change for anybody, and was apparently willing to throw his "fastball" at Evans, even though he is a fastball hitter.

We're sorry, but you can't give "defensive specialist" labels to a player who is outplayed by Zaza Pachulia in regards to defending a lightning quick point guard such as Evans. Even Pachulia knew to dare Evans to shoot, which he did with Zaza on him (he missed).

As soon as Flubber entered the game, Evans attacked him for two quick hoops. In his nine(!) minutes of floor time, Flubber garnered (3) personal fouls, one unnecessary risk that worked and one that didn't and was mercifully (for us) pulled from the game. As we listened close, we could swear we heard Hoopinion head honcho Bret LaGree carefully documenting his case for his eventual committal hearings.

In regards to the most recent post on THHB, Al Horford used the fifth most possessions on the team despite the well stated issues the Kings had defending the frontcourt. And while Horford was used in the post down the stretch, which did put a smile on our face, he was not throughout the rest of the game. We had to laugh when The Namesake kept mentioning on the telecast that he wished the Hawks used Al more down low. After an early third quarter possession when Horford got the ball in the post and easily scored, THHF once again stated his wishes that the Hawks continue to go down there to him. They immediately went away from it and did not go back until midway through the fourth quarter. Baby steps, we remind ourselves, baby steps.

Marvin Williams took the aggressive route to the matchup and it paid off by getting to the line for 5-5 free throws and making 3-4 shots at the rim. We've been saying that Marvin would be best served showing his outside shot as a way to keep defenses honest so that he can use his speed, length, and touch to get better shots inside. Taking (6) out of his (9) shots inside of ten feet is a good place to start. Staying under control while doing so is the next step.

Joe Johnson did a nice job Wednesday night of mixing some gotta-get-to-the-basket-myself moves with good ball movement and had a solid 17/7 game and a relatively short night (31 minutes) as a reward. Though at times he looked like he wanted to give Tyreke Evans as good as Evans was giving him, it didn't become an epidemic. At one point Evans powered his way to the hoop for a score and you could tell Joe wanted to take right back at him. Which he did---successfully.

It's more than a bit fun to watch Jamal Crawford chase history. Once again he was fouled while draining a three pointer and hit the subsequent free throw. It was the 22nd time Crawford has done this and is now (2) away from Reggie Miller's all time record. Miller used to get those fouls by kicking his feet out like a frog leaping from his pad. Crawford just seems to get hit and has the---talent?--to knock down the shot anyway.

We've long lamented the efforts of Kevin Martin (and others) to get to the free throw line at any cost, including trying to actually get the ball into the hoop. So you have to know that we looked on in approval as the Hawks rarely gave into his shenanigans as he shot only (6) free throws (he averages nine per game) while still using the second most possessions on the team. Good defense on a guy who can score often in the easiest way possible.

We Celebrate

Here at THHB, there is much to celebrate--let us count the ways.

We Celebrate....

First, obviously, a massive ball sharing experiment that left the Toronto Raptors lying in a pathetic mess on the Philips Arena floor. This ball sharing episode led to (37) assists and put (9) players in double figures, something that hasn't happened to the Hawks since 1987--leading to a 146-115 blowout Wednesday night.

The absolute dominance of Al Horford. Chris Bosh is going to get a lot of money next summer when he becomes a free agent--and rightfully so. Horford made Bosh disappear by backing him down relentlessly and scoring and then smothering him on the defensive end as well, holding the all-star to (2) points for the entire game. Horford did what All-Star big men are supposed to do, dominate the game physically and get the other team's bigs into foul trouble. He also turned on the jets in transition and blistered Toronto repeatedly on his way to (24) points on (12) shots.

The presence of a competent NBA bench. Joe Smith may not get more minutes than Solomon Jones did last season, and we can debate the relevance of such a role on the team, but there is no arguing that Smith provides what we in the technical labs of THHB call "oodles" more than Jones may ever hope to acheive on a basketball floor. Yes, the Raptors were lost defensively---but Smith unleashed a variety of offensive scores and used his length very well in his (12) point, (5) rebound showing. Toss in the play of Jamal Crawford (16) and Zaza Pachulia (11) and you have quite the talent stew brewing off the bench.

We celebrate Jeff Teague seperately because he is what the Hawks haven't had at the point since Mookie Blaylock played golf in the ATL---a fast, quick handed point who can distribute efficiently and score. Teague is what old time scouts would call "sudden" on the floor. He looks calm and still and then---wham---he bursts with quickness to the basket or steals the ball and away we go. Where his ceiling is in unclear at this point, but one of the silver linings in a very golden cloud last night was that Teague had (22) minutes to do his thing and it was good.

The outside shooting of Mike Bibby. Who would guess that Bibby would have been perfect last night, if not for a dead ball free throw miss (4-4, 4-4, 0-1, 12 points, 5 assists, 22 minutes)? Among the Raptors many boo-boos defensively last night was leaving the Hawks point guard wide open with little attempt to deter.

The return this season of the shot blocking Josh Smith. We noted often last season that something was amiss from Smith in terms of shot deterrence and seeing him in full throttle shot denial this season underscores that even more. When he is active on that end, it wreaks havoc inside for teams--and good things follow for the Hawks.

The wonderfulness that is team rebounding. Here is where the Hawks have to look every game as a key to victory. If they protect the boards, with their offensive talent, they will end up winning. The Hawks failed to do this against Detroit and paid a heavy price at both ends. In their losses in general this is the case. Failure to stop defensively has led to stale offensive possessions and the cycle feeds itself constantly until the final buzzer. In this game, the Hawks outrebounded Toronto 51-29 and displayed a dedication to crashing the boards---from Marvin Williams all the way down to Randolph Morris.

The embracing of ball movement in this game was wonderful. Penetration, pass, pass again, drive, pass, score was in full effect in this blowout. Since this is not the first game that Hawks have had success not dribbling a hole in the floor every time down THHB asks why the team fails to make this their own personal basketball theme in every game?

Some of it is leadership--in that the biggest culprit is Joe Johnson--the supposed leader of this club. It was Johnson who in this game ground the team to a halt once again in the first quarter when he inexplicably took a quick 3pt shot (defended, mind you) when the team was killing the Raptors early inside. For someone who decries selfish play, this move by a leader of the team was perplexing. Taking a cue from Johnson, the team temporarily suspended ball movement for the jump shot fever. It was the only time that Toronto was in the game.

At the same time we celebrate all the positives of Johnson's game--of which there is much to shout about. (12) points, (6) rebounds and (11) assists in a mere (26) minutes shows that his temporary lapse of reason offensively was just that--for this night.  Joe doesn't need to do this all by himself--even if at times he may want to.

Finally, we celebrate what this team can be when it's all going the right way--and it most certainly was Wednesday night. We hope they internalize how easy games are when you apply to knockout punch early (when it presents itself) and can get needed playoff rest late in the game. This team has all the talent to go far into the playoffs---only its own boundaries presented by their defensive rebounding and offensive ball movement prevent them from realizing their full potential on given nights.

Mike Bibby, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Jamal Crawford, Zaza Pachulia, Joe Smith, Jeff Teague, Maurice Evans, Randolph Morris--take a bow--we celebrate you today.


THHB appreciates that the Raptors and Hawks joined us in celebrating the birthday week of this blog's founder (December 4th). A finer present could not have been offered. Fruit cakes and gag gifts can be left gift-wrapped in the Comments Area.

Marrrrviiiinnn!!

Shame on the HHB.

Having been called out on Twitter by the fine folk(s) @peachtreehoops for not having a reaction to the not-yet-but-close-enough-to-say-it's-close-enough signing of Marvin Williams, the HHB is compelled to pander--something that comes naturally to the attention needy such as we.

The contract, as being tossed about by various media outlets, is a reported 5 years, 40ish million dollars with incentives to bridge the gap between 37 and 40 million that are probably related to Marvin not missing an unreasonable amount of games over the course of the contract. (Hey, at least the Hawks are trying to save the insurance companies a buck or two. Viva economy!)

From the Hawks point of view, this is a good deal.

They lock up their Age 23 small forward for his prime years, and was able to do so after watching a season where he showed the Hawks what he can provide at the very least throughout those years.

His numbers improved almost across the board, with the lone exception of assist rate (come on, Marv!). A 117 offensive rating, 16PER, and career highs in eFG (.502) and TS% (.569) tell the story of what we thought we were seeing last season; a player who, after two seasons of feeling around the basketball floor, finally found his rhythm on the court, and became a big reason the Hawks improved to (47) wins last season.

Maybe the biggest non-statistical indication of Marvin's progress came when he missed over a dozen games during the season with a bad back. His return was not only newsworthy, he received a standing ovation from the loving fans @ Philips Arena--and put the "but he's not" conversations to rest for a little while.

As for the money involved, the team could have played hardball with Marvin, as they did with Josh Smith and Josh Childress a season before, and made him find the market value for himself. But the Hawks could not afford to dare Marvin to play out the qualifier and become an unrestricted free agent after next year. Even with a doom-and-gloom prediction over a cap reduction next season, there are plenty of indications that there will be a lot of money available for next year's free agent crop--with few top end free agents to spend it on, which could lead to overspending on players like Williams for those teams who don't nab those top free agents in 2010.

The Hawks also would have risked Williams taking another step forward in his development next season and leaving the Hawks wishing they had locked him up when they had the chance. (D'oh!) After having Josh Childress in Greek purgatory, the Hawks had to ensure they would not lose another above average producing player for nothing.

Even if the Hawks aren't completely satisfied, Williams' youth and (getting) well rounded game should make him an interesting trade piece for whatever shows to be a more obvious need over the course of the 2009-2010 Hawks campaign.


It's a good deal for Marvin, too.

He now doesn't have to sweat it out throughout next season, wondering if he will make it through the year without suffering an injury that would significantly hurt his chances at a high dollar package.

He can also proceed with just playing basketball--in that contract watching and worrying can be an amazing distraction for any player. Marvin can cash his checks and focus on the game now--no small positive there.

5 years, 40 million dollars. Not too shabby.


...stroking their beards and wondering, "What's to be done with this HHB?"

This is a good deal for the fans, also. Marvin is a likable, productive player who has worked hard (and succeeded) at getting better every season. He is rounding himself into a productive player in every facet of the game and can be counted on to give great effort, especially on defense.

We are only left to hope that the incentives in this proposed contract commit Marvin to keeping the all important and powerful mustache, his consistently great quotes, and an instructional video on how to solve the Rubik's Cube.

The HHB is happy that the Hawks were able to take care of Marvin and finish off the internal free agent season (sorry RFM). Odes to Marvin's Mustache can be sung in the sound proof Comments Area.

Hawks Free Agency, Take One

UPDATE: According to Sekou Smith (you da man!), Zaza Pachulia will be back and richer than ever:

Pachulia, 25, spent the last four years with the Hawks on a $16 million deal. His new deal is believed to be for the same amount of years but with a significant raise, according to one of the sources familiar with the situation.

Considering Marcin Gortat is slated to pull a full MLE deal (approx 5yr/33mil), one might think a deal that is four years for Zaza, might be in the 20-22 million dollar range.

UPDATE 2: The article now says it's 4 years, 18 million---not really all that significant an increase, though the HHB would take 2 million and ask no questions.

(We now resume our previous post---already in progress)

Aaand--action!

Today's the day.

It's the day when rumor become reality, when verbals go written, and a player's word become their bond, legally. For the Hawks it means the official beginning to one of their busier free agency seasons in recent years.

The Hawks have already reached an "oral agreement" for a 3 year, 18 million dollar deal for Mike Bibby. (Thank you, Sekou!)

The HHB signs off on this move as we discussed in an eye-popping table yesterday. For this offense, flawed as we may believe it is, Bibby is a really good fit. His ability to run the team, determine tempo, and understand where the ball should go meshes well with his ability to hit the long ball. His defense is not good, that's for sure, but given the alternative of not having anybody else who can do the things that Mike does, we're sure glad to have him back.

Bibby's signing might mean the end of the RFM era in Atlanta, but we don't know for sure. Murray was on his way to Russia when obtained for one million dollars last summer, and while we were sure his consistent, productive season (a near 15 PER) was going to land him a multi year deal somewhere, if not ATL, we haven't heard his name mentioned in many discussions around the league and in the media corners. Would or should the Hawks crowd the backcourt even more should Murray be availble for the same bargain basement price? His own history suggests last season was a needle in his career haystack--if there are fewer minutes would he go back to being wildly inconsistent? We would bet that Coach Woodson would welcome the veteran back, even with Jamal Crawford on board with a returning Bibby and Joe Johnson, but it would mean a season of non-playing for first round pick Jeff Teague, unless injury reared its head in front of him. After the non-playing of Acie Law, we're not pro on keeping more first rounders on the bench for long.

The only solution we could get behind that would potentially keep Teague on the bench would be the return of Josh Childress to the Hawks. Would Childress risk staying in ATL if the Hawks match an offer sheet? We would really hope so, considering his productivity level was better every season as a Hawk and he was a good rebounder, especially offensively for a guard. But considering all the ill will of the past year, we're not going to hold our breath on this one---well, not for long anyway.

We have written about Zaza and the Hawks need to address the serious rebounding void there is on the team even with Pachulia and Al Horford on the roster. Not being able to resign Zaza means the Hawks have to bring (2) more big men in, not only replace the big fella. Zaza does two things really well statistically, as best we can tell---he gets to the free throw line and he can offensively rebound. He is a terrific backup center, capable of filling in on those nights when Horford is down or in foul trouble.

For the Hawks to be serious about moving forward next year while doing the same things they did last year, another big man must be procured using the MLE. We have already espoused the virtues of our two top targets, Antonio McDyess and Drew Gooden, as they would certainly address the rebounding woes from the power forward position, a place where the starter, Josh Smith, is below average for his position in rebounding rates. Those veterans could do a lot of good to mentor Smith on hustle and determination, especially McDyess, who by all accounts in Detroit is a consummate professional and whose attitude would continue to do good in the changing locker room. That could be a reason the Pistons are determined to get McDyess back and let Rasheed Wallace go to Boston. It would likely take a bold offer by the Hawks to bring him into the ATL.

Gooden seems like he's been around forever but is actually just entering his Age 28 season and has habitually been among the consistent rebounders in the league. It may not take as big a package to land him as it would McDyess because Gooden may be undervalued due to playing on many teams, having weird facial (and neckal) hair, and because rebounding simply isn't as valued an attribute as it should be.

Marvin Williams likely won't get much attention in the restricted market because teams figure the Hawks will match any reasonable offer for the forward. Folks have benchmarked Charlie Villanueva's rumored 5 year, 35-40 million deal as a ruler for a Marvin contract. Marvin has improved every season and has shown scoring ability, especially when Joe Johnson was sidelined, and he was second on the team in foul drawing rate (Pachulia). His good nature, hard work ethic, and abilities make the case that the Hawks would likely match an offer stand up. The qualifying offer is over 7 million dollars anyway--Marvin could sign it and take his chances next season as an unrestricted free agent.

All of which is to say that tomorrow officially gets the boat launched and away from the dock. We will see who is truly targeting whom and what the Hawks will do. Resigning Bibby is a good start, but not addressing the obvious rebounding deficits would be a costly mistake, especially should Pachulia be allowed to leave.

The HHB has the party favors and the Official Travelling Low Def Viewing Center ready for action--hopefully the good guys will oblige. Free agent thoughts, chips, and dip can be brought into the Comments Area.

Free Agency: Go Time

Well, the votes are in--and the Hawks have elected to tender Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Solomon Jones, and Mario West as presented here earlier in the day. This leaves Thomas Gardner and Othello Hunter as unrestricted free agents.

Marvin's tendering was no surprise--the team definitely wants to control things while they decide whether to extend/match him, trade him, or let him sign and play out his tender, leaving him unrestricted next season.

The Josh Childress move was also expected, as they would like to get something for him if he wants to rejoin the NBA and he costs them nothing (either cap or otherwise) if he plays overseas again next season.

What was less expected were the tenders of Solomon Jones and Mario West. Under CBA rules, the Hawks had to present a contract for a million dollars to each of them, above the approximate 770K they played for last season. That the Hawks felt so compelled to grant this raise and not let them take their chances as unrestricted free agents was surprising, given that their production was sub-par by any statistical measurement. It already hurts to have good guy Mo Evans getting paid 2.5 million for his less than average statistical achievements (PER 11.1), but to grant .6 million extra in cap space to two guys who the HHB believes would have a hard time finding a roster spot elsewhere, much less more than the minimum grinds the salary cap gears even more. If we were Jones and West, we'd sign those tenders immediately--before the Hawks changed their minds--but the HHB has been wayyy wrong before.

What else we learned on Tuesday:

We learned that Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur are not simply dumb jocks---they took their 12.3 and 9.0 million respectively and decided to stay put for one more year--until the cap friendly Summer of 2010. This puts the Jazz precariously close to luxury tax territory and having to make a tough choice on their own restricted free agent, Paul Millsap.

Our buddy, Ric Bucher, was kind to the Hawks today (Insider required) as he listed the ATL as potential fits for free agents Ben Gordon and Anderson Varejao, who opted out of his contract today and become a free agent. We had to laugh and agree with Bucher's assessment of Gordon as a fit for the Hawks, since they are stockpiling isolation scorers in Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and first round pick Jeff Teague, of whom the HHB has likened to Gordon in style and scoring. The Hawks won't get him since after all the Hawks own free agents and Teague is signed, there will likely be nothing more than the exception to work with, and that won't get it for Gordon, even if the Hawks were interested.

Varejao is a classic overstated role player who dipped in rebounding rate last season. He's a mid-level guy who sounds like he believes he is much more like Carlos Boozer. He's not.

Looks like Jason Kidd is going to make a date with the New York Knicks in an attempt to get the Dallas Mavericks jealous and pay him. He's a better fit with Dallas due to Dirk and JT and the Dallas offense than in New York but we'd sure like a point guard like him in Atlanta.

An interesting player that will be available as a potential Zaza replacement is Orlando's Marcin Gortat, who was very productive in a backup role behind Dwight Howard. His rebounding rates are similar to Pachulia, but his shot blocking rate is far higher, which always enthuses the HHB galleries. It remains to be seen if the lesser experienced Gortat receives less lucrative offers than Zaza, but we would like to see another shot blocker up front--should almost be a pre-requisite of the center position.

Related to free agency, Detroit ran Michael Curry out after one season as head coach, ostensibly to be able to sell the team better to free agents (seems odd to create chaos to ensure stability). Debating whether he deserved to go in light of GM Joe Dumars (isn't it obvious the Pistons are about him and no coach) ripping out Chauncey Billups, bringing in Allen Iverson, and alienating Rip Hamilton is irrelevant---don't you think Mike Woodson is happy he chose Atlanta instead of "waiting his turn" in Detroit?

As Dominique once told the HHB, that's why he'd never coach. He said "Coaches come and go--and the executives stay." So true.


Here is an updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold) and will be updated regularly:

Free Agents (restricted)	PER
David Lee (RFA)	19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)	18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)	18.77
Andre Miller	18.71
Charlie Villanueva	18.64
Chris Anderson	18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)	17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA) Ben Gordon	17.20 17.02
Jason Kidd	16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)	16.91
Antonio McDyess	16.63
Lamar Odom	16.60
Brandon Bass	16.49
Mike Bibby	16.38
Drew Gooden	16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA)	16.04
Shawn Marion	16.02
Allen Iverson	15.89
Ron Artest	15.64
Trevor Ariza	15.51
Grant Hill	15.26
Rasheed Wallace	14.91
Hedo Turkoglu	14.82
Von Wafer	14.79
RFM	14.79
Anderson Varajao	14.62
Rasho Nesterovic	14.15
Zaza Pachulia	14.14
Joe Smith	13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)	13.80
Shelden Williams	13.78
Chris Wilcox	13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)	13.10
Wally Szczerbiak	12.18
Anthony Parker	12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)	12.08
Robert Swift	11.50
Theo Ratliff	11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)	10.77
Raef Lafrentz	10.40
Channing Frye	10.09
Mario West (RFA) Ime Udoka	10.00 9.57
Stromile Swift	6.80
Malik Rose	5.28

Hawks Restricted/Unrestricted Player Update

Unofficially, the Hawks have tendered a qualifying offer to the following players:

Marvin Williams
Josh Childress
Mario West
Solomon Jones

This makes them restricted free agents and will carry a cap number until they are signed and gives the team the right of first refusal.

This means that Othello Hunter and Thomas Gardner have not received those offers and will now be unrestricted free agents, free to run, and run, and run to the team of their choice---with no way for the Hawks to stop them.

The Hawks will, in both cases, have the ability to initiate a sign and trade---which means the Hawks will also hold a cap number on these players until they are signed. If the team wants to free themselves of that cap number, they must renounce the rights to those players and the Bird rights that go with them.

This is also the case with their current unrestricted free agents (Zaza Pachulia, Mike Bibby, and Ronald "Flip" Murray).

We will update when we go final on the list and we thank @atlanta_hawks for the update!

2009 Free Agent Outlook

As free agency approaches, the natural inclination is that everybody else's refuse is our treasure. We look at the warts on the players on our roster and wonder how great it would be if some team would make a deal with us?

The HHB wanted to take as honest a look with what limited statistical knowledge we have (thanks to Basketball Reference) and see if the grass was truly greener on the other teams via the free agency route.

From what we could gather from ESPN, here is the list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold) and will be updated with latest news:

Free Agents (restricted)	PER
David Lee (RFA)	19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)	18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)	18.77
Andre Miller	18.71
Charlie Villanueva	18.64
Chris Anderson Zydrunas Ilgauskus	18.16 18.03
Ramon Sessions (RFA)	17.65
Carlos Boozer	17.28
Marcin Gartat (RFA) Ben Gordon	17.20 17.02
Jason Kidd	16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)	16.91
Antonio McDyess	16.63
Lamar Odom	16.60
Brandon Bass	16.49
Mike Bibby	16.38
Drew Gooden	16.34
Marvin Williams	16.04
Shawn Marion	16.02
Allen Iverson	15.89
Ron Artest	15.64
Trevor Ariza	15.51
Grant Hill	15.26
Rasheed Wallace	14.91
Hedo Turkoglu	14.82
Von Wafer	14.79
RFM	14.79
Anderson Varajao	14.62
Rasho Nesterovic	14.15
Zaza Pachulia	14.14
Joe Smith	13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)	13.80
Shelden Williams	13.78
Chris Wilcox	13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)	13.10
Wally Szczerbiak	12.18
Anthony Parker	12.16
Solomon Jones	12.08
Robert Swift	11.50
Theo Ratliff	11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)	10.77
Raef Lafrentz	10.40
Channing Frye (RFA)	10.09
Ime Udoka	9.57
Stromile Swift	6.80
Malik Rose	5.28

We know that PER isn't the perfect tool, but this gives a general idea of what's out there and by a little more advanced statistical look, how our current free agents stack up.

Some thoughts:

Some of these players need to be looked at not how they did last year specifically, but how they are trending, their age, etc. For example, Andre Miller still looks like a productive PG, but how will he look at the end of a three year contract, if he accepts that? Same goes for our own Mike Bibby.

Also, one year aberrations should be noted as well, as in the case of RFM, who had his second best season out of the (7) seasons in the league.

Drew Gooden is in his Age 28 season in the league. Seems like he's been in the league for a long time. He is likely entering the "underrated productive forward" stage of his career and then end up in "used to be underrated but then everyone realized he was underrated and now he overrated/overpaid" part of his career. Bottom line---he's always been productive (he always seems to kill the Hawks) and will likely be underrated going into this offseason--could be a bargain.

Robert Swift was as productive as Solomon Jones, though both played in limited minutes---but it's interesting to note in case Rick Sund decides to bring Swift aboard.

Trevor Ariza is poised to get wildly overpaid (thanks to his Finals run) for somebody with his track record of league average play.

It will be interesting to see how Allen Iverson performs next season. 2008-09 was obviously his worst season, but has been a terrific producer (if you can handle what he does/doesn't do offensively) statistically. He is prime for a 1-year, prove it, contract--but from whom? You would think that Atlanta would suit him perfect--the town would love him, his defense would look superb compared to what currently passes, and he (ahem) knows the Hawks offense.

Speaking of shorter deals, Jason Kidd has settled into the next tier down from his excellent run in New Jersey. He is going into his Age 36 year, so one has to wonder what he has left--likely looking at a Sam Cassell circa 2005 contract (2 years). His fit on the Hawks would be questionable, given the Hawks anxiety about pushing the ball (unless a forward has the ball) and the propensity towards isolation sets.

Borrowing from Hoopinion's great cap status post here, we can look at the Hawks financial outlook for 2009 as it stands today. It looks as if we can almost rule out a RFA signing, as even with tendering Marvin and renouncing everyone else (Zaza, Childress, et al) the Hawks could only start @ around 6 million for free agents. With the RFA list including Sessions, Lee, Nate, Charlie V, you would think that a contract starting there would be matched immediately.

Hakim Warrick has improved every season and last year came close to equaling Josh Smith's totals, though Smith's were his lowest since his second season. Warrick, however, doesn't come close to touching Smoove in the block/steal categories.

The HHB wishes that they could bring Zydrunas Ilgauskus in, given that he has consistently produced for CLE, can run a pick and pop, and rebounds so well. Shaq is more productive, even @ 3 years older than Z--but not by that much statistically and not in the same way. If Z gets away, then he'll be the top center out there for someone to grab.

Ben Gordon might wish that he already had that 6 year, 54 million dollar deal in hand--especially considering he had provided slightly above average numbers for the Bulls in his five seasons there. The Hawks can hope that Jeff Teague gives them that level of production with the 19th pick.

Admit it, you're surprised that Ron Artest is less productive than Marvin Williams. Look at his career, and you'll see he's been overrated compared to what his perceived value has been, not even measuring in the insanity factor.

(Sidenote: When he was a rookie in the 1999-2000 season, we mentioned to the late, great Jeffrey Denberg that we loved Artest's defensive intensity and wished he was on the Hawks, to which Denberg quickly responded, "You don't want him, he's psycho." In his rookie season. Well done, Mr. Denberg.)

You can see why Brandon Bass is getting some attention out there. Teams are probably thinking they can get the guy on the cheap, but his production since coming to Dallas has been obvious and it looks like people noticed, making him a candidate to get overpaid. When Bass worked out for the Hawks in 2004 when he first put his name in the draft--he looks like he is now, a tough competitor who doesn't look pretty, but gets the job done.

Shawn Marion used to be considered elite when he was @ Phoenix, but whether it's malaise or the effects of not being with an all-star PG, his production numbers have dropped across the board. A west coast team might be able to coax better seasons, especially those with a good point guard (let's rule out the Hawks then), considering he is entering his Age 31 season, but he may just be falling fast.

Hedo Turkoglu wants 50 million dollars over 5 years like Corey Maggette got last season, trying to revive the ol' "one bad contract deserves another" philosophy to negotiation. Turkoglu was a piece in the Magic's success, but it is saying something that the Magic would turn him loose so quick. They basically got an upgrade on the one trick pony by bringing in Vince Carter. This would be a player that the old Hawks might have signed, pre-Billy Knight. Thankfully, those days are gone--we hope.

Raymond Felton doesn't score well on the PER either, so it's good to look at why, considering Felton is touted as a good, young PG. His turnovers are high and his shooting percentage is awful, especially in the EFG, TS%, and his raw 3pt shooting, you understand why. When you have to envy Josh Smith's 3-pt prowess, you are struggling.

When you look at the crop of free agents, Marvin Williams comes out looking pretty good. Zaza Pachulia plays up to his backup center status and as one of the league's best offensive rebounders. Mike Bibby is as effective as his shot makes him--no big surprise there--last year being very good to him and lifting him above the league average. RFM produced at league average for minimum pay--he likely won't have to settle for that, but any team that signs him (especially the Hawks) have to understand his inconsistency and history. Solomon Jones may not get another look if the Hawks cut him loose, and while we have been down on Jones here, there are obviously worse players collecting a check. Doesn't mean the Hawks have to have him though, right?

UPDATE: As we said, we knew we'd miss someone, and Sekou has the name first on his free agents entry---his name and PER has been inserted--and yes, we should be interested--greatly.

UPDATE 2: Electric Boogaloo: Milwaukee has decided NOT to offer Charlie V a qualifier, making him unrestricted.

The HHB are not sabermagicians and understand that PER has limitations and this list may not be completely complete (hey, if airlines can have a last final call, we can have completely complete)---All conversation will be held inside the think tank that is the Comments Area.

Official HHB Hawks Season Recap

47 wins, most since 1997-98.

Second round of the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

A 6-0 start to the season, with wins on the road against New Orleans and Orlando that would serve notice that the Hawks competitiveness in the previous season's playoffs was more proof than fluke.

At first pass, one would say that the 2008-2009 season was a successful one for the Hawks and their young core.

Still, the HHB has spent a week on the sports psychiatrist's coach asking this question:

Why, given the simple data that shows improvement, does it feel like such a letdown?


What follows are the (formerly) confidential notes from those sessions:


When (10) Wins Doesn't Feel Like Improvement

As the Hawks were being ushered out of the previous year's post season festivities by the eventual champs, while celebrating the areas that the Hawks had been good at by making the playoff experience the longest it could have been for a first round exit, it was clear there were some areas that the Hawks needed to focus on to improve and build on the playoff berth.

Then the new season started and the Hawks came out with all guns blazing, bursting a 6-0 start that only the heralded Los Angeles Lakers could match. Included in these games were a rousing opening night win in Orlando and a surprising road win against New Orleans. In these games, the Hawks played strong as a unit and seemed intent on making the case that they were serious about taking a step forward from the season before.

Then, Josh Smith got hurt, the streak ended, and the Hawks played six games above .500 the rest of the way. The rest of the way we saw a team that was strong at home, inconsistent at best on the road, and mired in their ways.

Read any blog about the Hawks for this past season and you will see what the HHB is referring to here. Their ways. This would include:

Josh Smith and His Many Ways to Confound, Frustrate, and Entertain (and produce).

Constant slow starts at the beginning of games as the Hawks would try to take the other team's basketball temperature to see how hard they would have to play for that night. This would be commonly referred to by the team themselves as "coming out flat".

Offensive game plans that amounted to little more than dribble down, make a pass, and then stand around and watch that chosen player break his man down one-on-one and see what happens. At the end of games, this would be referred to as "Watching Joe Johnson".

Poor defensive efforts that would start with Mike Bibby struggling to maintain his man or, worse still, constant switching that would create whatever matchup the other team wanted to see. It's no Rubik's Cube when everybody knows how to solve that little mystery.

The Atlanta Hawks feature a talented young roster that on some nights can out-athleticize and out-shoot most teams in the NBA. This works against less talented teams in the league, but it doesn't scale to good teams, or on the road, and certainly not when both those factors are in play.

Second Round and Bust

To advance past the Miami Heat (w/Dwyane Wade!) and move into the second round seems like good progress, but nothing about the first round victory seemed impressive, especially given that all the points above reared their ugly heads continuously through that seven game series.

The Hawks had way more talent ready to win than Miami did, yet allowed all their bad habits to stretch the series to the limit.

Then came the series against Cleveland, or as Cavs fans call it "Did We Play A Second Round?". Whereas the Hawks surprised the Celtics the season before and were able to jump the better team at home, this sound team was ready and took all the Hawks best shots before tossing them aside. The Hawks had used home court and the energy Philips Arena provided as a crutch and a way to hide the glaring issues that lingered throughout the season. The Cavs came along and pulled back the curtain on the Hawks and showed just how far mentally and strategically the team had to go to really be anything more than a participant in the NBA's glory season.

When Do You Know That It's Love?

That's how you can go from a quick look at the simple data and see success to feeling underwhelmed by the whole finish.

When a team seems like they peaked in the sixth game of the year, the rest of the season will have that anti-climactic feeling to it. Add in the annoying, obvious, and continuous problems that were never addressed for the remainder of the season, and one might see how Frequent Bird Watchers can carry this opinion about a 47 win, second round playoff team--even given the recent history.

Looking at the statistics, most everything improved about the team, especially compared with the rest of the league---their offensive rating (per 100 possessions) improved from 16th to 10th, and their defensive rating made a similar improvement (18th to 11th).

Marvin Williams and Al Horford both made strides towards being more efficient in the PER model (The HHB will address players individually in greater detail throughout the offseason), Mike Bibby greatly improved the play from the point guard position from the season before, and even Joe Johnson proved to be slightly more productive than in the previous season.

And by the way, you know, when you're telling these little stories? Here's a good idea - have a POINT. It makes it SO much more interesting for the listener!

Our bottom line is this---there is no disputing the productive improvement over the course of the season, 10 games more won, moving forward in the playoffs, home court advantage---all of these definitely point to an improvement and a step forward for a franchise that had no forward movement at all for this decade.

However, when feeling positive about this team, it's hard not to be concerned about the areas which plagued the team all season long, without correction. It's those problems that caused a disaster of a second round series and prolonged a first round series against an inferior team, in which home court was, at one point, lost.

This offseason will be dotted with drafts, free agency, and a probable "Where in the World is Josh Childress" story arc at some point.

But, in our opinion, the most important and influential area that the Hawks can address are the ways in which they lost the season before. We can always use more talent---and that was made clear as well throughout the year, especially in the case of many injuries---but all the talent in the world can't mask some of the systemic problems we've noted here often and above, and if the goal is to move beyond the benchmark of this season, then these have got to be corrected.

Or so says our therapist.

The HHB will be offering player reviews throughout the offseason, but also has a 5th child on the way, creating a devastating Starting Five in about (20) years. Thoughts and Diapers can be left in the Comments Area.

Rest In Peace, Playoff Memory

It was as expected as the Atlanta Hawks returned home to play Game Three:

The crowd was loud, the team was pumped, and the Hawks took the lead late into the third quarter. They moved without the ball, explored the theory of offensive ball movement, and got after loose balls and rebounds. Heck, they even got the stingy Cavs to turn the ball over.

It played out exactly as we're sure the Hawks believed it would once they got back to their more comfortable surroundings, where they magically snap together to win the game and defy their doubters.

Nope, guess again.

After a bizarre farewell from the game from Zaza Pachulia, the Cleveland Cavaliers went on a game-finishing 31-17 run to take Game Three and likely the series.

With a minute and a half left in the third quarter, with the Hawks only trailing by a point, Pachulia attempted to take a charge in the lane, but was clearly in the restricted area, and a block was called. Pachulia, obviously feeling wronged, berated the officials from afar, but obviously said some magic words, as they quickly showed him where the bathrooms were.

Whereas in last year's Boston series Pachulia's fire brought the Hawks and the crowd to life, it backfired this time for the Hawks, who had just completed a 13-2 run to really energize the team and get control of their playoff lives. When it happened, the rest of the team looked baffled as to Zaza's tantrum and stunned by his sudden exit. After Pachulia's exit, Al Horford--who had asked to be limited due to his sore ankle in order to be somewhat effective for the team, was forced to check right back into the game.

With the crowd wondering how they should feel and becoming silent during the (4) free throws which followed, LeBron James took it upon himself to make sure the crowd's silence was permanent.

James scored (18) of his (47) points in his last (13) minutes after the ejection, scoring from long range, short range, free range---even tossing in an oh-give-me-a-break bank shot from (22) feet while looking like my uncle, who jumps in the air is if an amphibian.

A player like James is like a very bright light---they expose every one of the flaws on the face of your team. He takes advantage of not being able to keep him outside by driving to the hoop. Once he beats you off the dribble, he makes you pay by over-committing to him by making great passes. Don't want to over-commit? Then he finishes strong or gets to the line. Make him shoot the "3"? He made 5-10 on the Hawks in Game Three---how many of those would you like him to take?

In this series James has has exposed the Hawks lack of defensive rotation, their lack of strong perimeter D, and Mike Woodson's stubborn reluctance to force someone else to shoot the last shots of quarters for the Cavs.

He and his teammates came into the ATL and took everyone's best shot----and still won by (15).

Checkmate, Atlanta.


Franks and Beans Make Great Leftovers

Not to put a stinky lining on the game, but the HHB hopes (and we know we are not alone) that this will FINALLY put to rest the Boston Celtics series from last year. Yes, it was nice to fight back and show we had improved last season. However---It was not a blueprint for future playoff victories nor should it be counted on for any future performance.

We don't believe that anyone in Atlanta can go back to that well now, unless you are going to also reference how crappy you can be at home and away in a series by looking at this particular stinkfest of a second round showing.

A tip of the ol' Jason Terry hat to Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, and Al. There is no doubt that all three of these guys were well below (100) percent, but they gave what they had. Horford has to be surprised to finish at (35) minutes, while Joe almost pitched the complete game, took on LeBron defensively at times---and led the team in scoring.

We have long noted that the goal the Hawks typically shoot on in the first half always seems especially tight. Even the Official Dad of the HHB noted it in watching games throughout the season--not that you would know it by the Cavs' shooting in the fourth quarter in Game Three. In the first quarter, the Hawks were attacking the rim and getting great shots with the ball movement---yet couldn't get the ball to fall, even on layups.

Josh Smith Giveth, and Josh Smith Taketh Away. Not a title---it's the roller coaster this talent puts everyone through. And as much as the people love him, he drove them to booing him when he selfishly launched shot after shot instead of going to the basket in the second half. His freelancing and sagging defensively overwhelms the times he makes a terrific play. If he is part of this core players that the team wants to improve with---the team needs to find a veteran or somebody to keep Josh in the right frame of mind at all times. We're looking forward to the offseason where we don't feel like we have to point out the same old, same old about Smith's game---it was so obvious tonight that he forced our fingers---not that it forced the coaching staff to do anything about it.

After the Break, Wacky Willie Wallace with the Weather

We're not saying we're preparing a post mortem on the 2008-2009 season yet (What's that? Go ahead?), but we were pretty sure that ESPN/ABC was going to put a poker-like percentage on the Hawks chances to win the series beside the final score. The Cavs have a royal flush and the Hawks have a six high right now. Not sure what card could save them unless LeBron decides he wants to play baseball full time starting tomorrow.

You just can't count on circumstances to win ball games for you, it takes talent, execution, and mental strength to make it happen. Sure you can get by with first one when you play lesser teams, but to win against the caliber of teams that are left, you gotta have all three and you need 'em better than the other guys' got them.

That's not this team at this time---so it's best that those past playoff "glories" are left back there and they can look to how they can get themselves in better position to beat these types of teams.

And by they, we mean everyone in the organ-i-zation---top to bottom.

The HHB was proud of the crowd booing LeBron, which probably incited snobbery among the national talking heads---Screw 'ems and other thoughts can be left tastefully in the Comments Area.

Get Well Soon, Marv

Excellent fallout posts over at Hoopinion and Peachtree Hoops on Marvin's potential absence for the season (as speculated by Sekou via comments by Joe Johnson here).

None of them mention the removal of the 'Stache from the Philips Floor and it's power therein---it's an oversight, obviously, and one that's understandable for those who don't believe---but we do, oh yes, we do.

Same Play, Different Scorer

We're not going to pretend to know if playing a 19-30 Charlotte team without Gerald Wallace almost even for the most part is impressive, ordinary, or scary.

We do know this--the Hawks won anyway, by five points, on the road, and without Joe Johnson, who we can safely say is the Hawks best player. In a recent history that has seen this team struggle for a single win, we'll take it.

Throw in the fact that the Hawks did it after spotting the home team an (18) point first half lead and got a gutsy, determined performance from Marvin Williams to do it down the stretch and we can say that the 102-97 outcome removed from us the carrot face that had been present for that entire first half.

Mustache Marv had his finest 5-15 game yet by getting to the free throw line for a staggering (20) throws---and in a bell curve smashing performance for the rest of the team, Williams canned 18 of them---Marv being such a good teammate, he probably apologized for making the rest of the team (12-19, 63 percent) look bad.

Williams attacked, attacked, and attacked some more in the second half against the Bobcats, who had frontcourt players in serious foul trouble. Not to get all mushy here--but we were a little choked up that the Hawks seemed to understand (well, at least Marvin did) that and took advantage, even though the 'Cats had some serious height advantage.

Sure, Bobcat fans will howl that the Hawks got all the calls and that the (2) buzzer beaters from RFM and Mo Evans were pure luck--but the fact is that the Bobcats squandered their 18 point first half bonanza by doing what immature teams do---stop moving the ball on offense, start standing around on defense, and settling for jump shot after jump shot. Toss in the requisite poor decision making with the ball and the ensuing turnovers and (poof) your shiny lead is all gone.

Believe the HHB---it takes one to know one.

We have seen the Hawks do the exact same thing---in fact, all you have to do is watch the first half of this same game to get the vibe. It was the second half, however, that showed the Hawks get hot, get aggressive, and get the win.

Down the stretch it was the Hawks that made the plays--mostly by Williams, who assumed the vacated Mike Woodson Isolation Extravaganza position with Johnson out. Williams didn't make jumpers like Joe, but he did use every inch of his Billy Knight Long and Tall body to get to the rim and ultimately the free throw line on his way to his (29) point night. He staggered a bit after one particularly hard landing late in the game, but after a time out, Marvin was back on the court and at the line.

(Random bad draft pick note) For a minute we had visions of a cold Cal Bowdler (Editor's note: Cynics would ask if there was any other kind) being pulled off the bench by the Celtics late in a game to shoot free throws for an injured Hawk. Bowdler ambled out to the line as if going to get the morning paper on a cold, winter morning---he stretched a bit, and you could almost hear the popping in his knees as he took his throws----and made them both. (End Note)

Both teams traded gaffes late---the Hawks with an offensive foul from Williams on a screen---the Bobcats inexplicably nearly dribbling out the clock before Josh Smith pounded their last attempt into the glass--sealing the game.

Again, we won't get out the abacus to see how this game rates---it's a win, on the road, without Joe Johnson, and at a place where the Hawks were 1-7 in the last (8) tries---So we'll take it obviously---no strings attached. The HHB is, after all, very forgiving.


Junk Mail, Junk Mail, Bills, Junk Mail

It was said by the Bobcat broadcast team but it bears repeating---the Hawks don't finish well around the rim. Besides Josh Smith, who did not do so tonight, the remainder of the Hawks act as if they are 2 years old shooting at their Little Tykes rim for the first time---unsure and unproductive. There were guffaws mixed with groans as Zaza Pachulia attempted to score around the hoop---he looks as if he is solving a Rubik's Cube out there around the basket---at one point he missed a wide open layup so, we swear, he could tap it in---a more comfortable shot for him. In Orlando this is known as a Terry Catledge Maneuver.

The Hawks were 21 for 58 inside the three point line (36 percent) and 10-18 beyond it---not the recipe for consistent offensive production. But hey, Mike Woodson AND Terry Stotts can't be wrong!

We think he is dangerous when trying to create baskets for others, but RFM is the guy we want launching any wild, end of the quarter shot. He reminds us of our good friend we played with on the mean streets of the University of Florida---the guy would routinely throw wild layup attempts and half court shots when we were waiting to get enough guys to run---and then would take those same crazy layups in the game---nobody could call it trash---that was his shot. That guy was our RFM.

It's good to see Al Horford back, but his post game is rusty---We understand that Rick Sund thinks he is a center through and through---but posting him against seven footers clearly makes him rush, miss, and fadeaway---It is also good to have his passing back at the high and low post---He set up quite a few hoops tonight that stretched beyond his (4) assists, including tapping in a hoop for the Bobcats---hey, we're smiling, Al--Welcome back!

The HHB is thawing out after the usual (2) week winter that the HHB HQ endures every year---Hot Chocolate and Marshmallows are welcome anytime in the Comments area.