Lose My Mind

Y'all gon' make me lose my mind
up in HERE up in here
Y'all gon' make me go all out
up in here up in here
Y'all gon' make me act a FOOL
up in HERE up in here
Y'all gon' make me lose my cool
up in here up in here

Much like the performer of the above, the Hawks have entered a puzzling/confusing stage in their development---as well as their attempts to improve on a second round ouster at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers last season.

Sekou Smith divulges the inner financial minds of the Hawks decision makers in his latest blog offering and the results are somewhat upsetting, but not all that surprising.

Our favorite passage from the Book of Sekou in regards to the well documented pursuit of free agent frontcourtman Joe Smith:

All that said, major work must be done to secure Smith’s signature on a contract. It’s not secret the Hawks aren’t paying the same rate for backup bigs that some other teams are (for example, Chris Wilcox got cash - $6 million over two years - in Detroit that he never could have from the Hawks. Same goes for Drew Gooden and the reported $4.5 mil he’ll bring in on a one-year deal with the Spurs). So they have to find ways (PLAYING TIME!!!!!!!!!!) to lure the kind of players they need to help bolster their cause. It probably helps that, in a summer marked by taking care of in-house business (home grown free agents), Smith is the first player outside of the family that the Hawks actually courted. Again, there is major work still to be done on this front.

Apparently the work doesn't involve spending even a majority (or plurality if they really want to stretch it to include three players) of the MLE.

Though they ponied up the money to resign Mike Bibby (at less cost of either Andre Miller or Jason Kidd it should be noted) and Zaza Pachulia (less cost than Anderson Varejao or Marcin Gortat), they seem unwilling to go a step further and improve the team by bringing in a player(s) that addresses one of the key shortcomings (rebounding) of last year's team.

Teams like the Utah Jazz have even gone so far as to consider loans to ensure they have enough talent to be a contender in the West. This is a standard practice in the world of sports--seeking lines of credit to fund an up front purchase. The Hawks, or at least some of the ownership, aren't as likely to dip into those financial waters, and what is left is having to try to do a vaudevillian sales pitch to try and get even one free agent to come on in. It's no wonder that the Hawks weren't involved with the Bobcats, Cavs, or Mavericks in trying to acquire Drew Gooden or why even with a lovefest and full court press attention to Joe Smith there isn't a signed contract in hand as yet. The Hawks would rather spend 2 million on slightly above replacement level talent than to pay a premium on a role player of any significance.

In the modest HHB minds, that's not how you improve your roster to address the needs of the team and move into the contender stage of a franchise's development.

This is not to say that the Hawks are cheapskates--well, at least not in roster payroll terms--they are making sure the product is good enough, therein the reason why they re-signed Bibby and Zaza. But good enough isn't the same good enough for a championship and actions such as these indicate the Hawks will always be faced with just enough financial restrictions to prevent them from really making the jump beyond a really nice regular season team.

And, in This Corner

Bret over @Hoopinion lays out a pretty strong case why the Question is Moot (or maybe moot) regarding the addition of a fourth big man to the rotation.

The origin of the insight provided was the surrender of the Hawks' rights to Solomon Jones to the Pacers so that he could sign a 2-year deal at the minimum salary level. Now, we would still question why the Hawks felt it was necessary to qualify Jones in the first place if they were willing to part with the forward even at the minimum--you know, since the Hawks have (15) slots to fill and all. We would also ask if Flubber West is now jealous.

The HHB would still like a frontcourt security blanket to provide coverage in case of catastrophic injury loss, rebounding enhancement, and the occasional need to "instruct" Josh Smith in games.

We passed the hat around the offices here at the HHB headquarters and we can give the Hawks $300 towards one of those premium players mentioned. Just let us know, fellas.


Sky Is Blue, Grass is Green, Dept.

Josh Smith took the opportunity to mix it up with other young talents in Las Vegas and the results were as expected to anyone who has watched Smith play more than (5) games with the Hawks the last two seasons.

Turnovers, poor shooting, and a lack of fundamentals were a theme over the course of his stay there, as were the usual athletic big plays that Smith is capable of.

The issue is clear: Smith can choose to shape up his game to take the next step up in his career, or he can embrace and settle into what he is today: A talented big who can occasionally make the remarkable happen but never able to be consistent or technically sound enough to be among the top players in the league. All of which means to the Hawks that they have a 10 million dollar a year player who will only sometimes play to that level.

The HHB has been caught head nodding to music enough in traffic to elicit hysterical laughter in motorists around us---Lessons and groove tips can be sent directly to the Comments area.

Free Agency: Go Time

Well, the votes are in--and the Hawks have elected to tender Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Solomon Jones, and Mario West as presented here earlier in the day. This leaves Thomas Gardner and Othello Hunter as unrestricted free agents.

Marvin's tendering was no surprise--the team definitely wants to control things while they decide whether to extend/match him, trade him, or let him sign and play out his tender, leaving him unrestricted next season.

The Josh Childress move was also expected, as they would like to get something for him if he wants to rejoin the NBA and he costs them nothing (either cap or otherwise) if he plays overseas again next season.

What was less expected were the tenders of Solomon Jones and Mario West. Under CBA rules, the Hawks had to present a contract for a million dollars to each of them, above the approximate 770K they played for last season. That the Hawks felt so compelled to grant this raise and not let them take their chances as unrestricted free agents was surprising, given that their production was sub-par by any statistical measurement. It already hurts to have good guy Mo Evans getting paid 2.5 million for his less than average statistical achievements (PER 11.1), but to grant .6 million extra in cap space to two guys who the HHB believes would have a hard time finding a roster spot elsewhere, much less more than the minimum grinds the salary cap gears even more. If we were Jones and West, we'd sign those tenders immediately--before the Hawks changed their minds--but the HHB has been wayyy wrong before.

What else we learned on Tuesday:

We learned that Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur are not simply dumb jocks---they took their 12.3 and 9.0 million respectively and decided to stay put for one more year--until the cap friendly Summer of 2010. This puts the Jazz precariously close to luxury tax territory and having to make a tough choice on their own restricted free agent, Paul Millsap.

Our buddy, Ric Bucher, was kind to the Hawks today (Insider required) as he listed the ATL as potential fits for free agents Ben Gordon and Anderson Varejao, who opted out of his contract today and become a free agent. We had to laugh and agree with Bucher's assessment of Gordon as a fit for the Hawks, since they are stockpiling isolation scorers in Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and first round pick Jeff Teague, of whom the HHB has likened to Gordon in style and scoring. The Hawks won't get him since after all the Hawks own free agents and Teague is signed, there will likely be nothing more than the exception to work with, and that won't get it for Gordon, even if the Hawks were interested.

Varejao is a classic overstated role player who dipped in rebounding rate last season. He's a mid-level guy who sounds like he believes he is much more like Carlos Boozer. He's not.

Looks like Jason Kidd is going to make a date with the New York Knicks in an attempt to get the Dallas Mavericks jealous and pay him. He's a better fit with Dallas due to Dirk and JT and the Dallas offense than in New York but we'd sure like a point guard like him in Atlanta.

An interesting player that will be available as a potential Zaza replacement is Orlando's Marcin Gortat, who was very productive in a backup role behind Dwight Howard. His rebounding rates are similar to Pachulia, but his shot blocking rate is far higher, which always enthuses the HHB galleries. It remains to be seen if the lesser experienced Gortat receives less lucrative offers than Zaza, but we would like to see another shot blocker up front--should almost be a pre-requisite of the center position.

Related to free agency, Detroit ran Michael Curry out after one season as head coach, ostensibly to be able to sell the team better to free agents (seems odd to create chaos to ensure stability). Debating whether he deserved to go in light of GM Joe Dumars (isn't it obvious the Pistons are about him and no coach) ripping out Chauncey Billups, bringing in Allen Iverson, and alienating Rip Hamilton is irrelevant---don't you think Mike Woodson is happy he chose Atlanta instead of "waiting his turn" in Detroit?

As Dominique once told the HHB, that's why he'd never coach. He said "Coaches come and go--and the executives stay." So true.


Here is an updated list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold) and will be updated regularly:

Free Agents (restricted)	PER
David Lee (RFA)	19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)	18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)	18.77
Andre Miller	18.71
Charlie Villanueva	18.64
Chris Anderson	18.16
Ramon Sessions (RFA)	17.65
Marcin Gortat (RFA) Ben Gordon	17.20 17.02
Jason Kidd	16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)	16.91
Antonio McDyess	16.63
Lamar Odom	16.60
Brandon Bass	16.49
Mike Bibby	16.38
Drew Gooden	16.34
Marvin Williams (RFA)	16.04
Shawn Marion	16.02
Allen Iverson	15.89
Ron Artest	15.64
Trevor Ariza	15.51
Grant Hill	15.26
Rasheed Wallace	14.91
Hedo Turkoglu	14.82
Von Wafer	14.79
RFM	14.79
Anderson Varajao	14.62
Rasho Nesterovic	14.15
Zaza Pachulia	14.14
Joe Smith	13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)	13.80
Shelden Williams	13.78
Chris Wilcox	13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)	13.10
Wally Szczerbiak	12.18
Anthony Parker	12.16
Solomon Jones (RFA)	12.08
Robert Swift	11.50
Theo Ratliff	11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)	10.77
Raef Lafrentz	10.40
Channing Frye	10.09
Mario West (RFA) Ime Udoka	10.00 9.57
Stromile Swift	6.80
Malik Rose	5.28

Hawks Restricted/Unrestricted Player Update

Unofficially, the Hawks have tendered a qualifying offer to the following players:

Marvin Williams
Josh Childress
Mario West
Solomon Jones

This makes them restricted free agents and will carry a cap number until they are signed and gives the team the right of first refusal.

This means that Othello Hunter and Thomas Gardner have not received those offers and will now be unrestricted free agents, free to run, and run, and run to the team of their choice---with no way for the Hawks to stop them.

The Hawks will, in both cases, have the ability to initiate a sign and trade---which means the Hawks will also hold a cap number on these players until they are signed. If the team wants to free themselves of that cap number, they must renounce the rights to those players and the Bird rights that go with them.

This is also the case with their current unrestricted free agents (Zaza Pachulia, Mike Bibby, and Ronald "Flip" Murray).

We will update when we go final on the list and we thank @atlanta_hawks for the update!

2009 Free Agent Outlook

As free agency approaches, the natural inclination is that everybody else's refuse is our treasure. We look at the warts on the players on our roster and wonder how great it would be if some team would make a deal with us?

The HHB wanted to take as honest a look with what limited statistical knowledge we have (thanks to Basketball Reference) and see if the grass was truly greener on the other teams via the free agency route.

From what we could gather from ESPN, here is the list of free agents for 2009 with their corresponding PER (Hawks players in bold) and will be updated with latest news:

Free Agents (restricted)	PER
David Lee (RFA)	19.07
Nate Robinson (RFA)	18.95
Paul Millsap (RFA)	18.77
Andre Miller	18.71
Charlie Villanueva	18.64
Chris Anderson Zydrunas Ilgauskus	18.16 18.03
Ramon Sessions (RFA)	17.65
Carlos Boozer	17.28
Marcin Gartat (RFA) Ben Gordon	17.20 17.02
Jason Kidd	16.95
Hakim Warrick (RFA)	16.91
Antonio McDyess	16.63
Lamar Odom	16.60
Brandon Bass	16.49
Mike Bibby	16.38
Drew Gooden	16.34
Marvin Williams	16.04
Shawn Marion	16.02
Allen Iverson	15.89
Ron Artest	15.64
Trevor Ariza	15.51
Grant Hill	15.26
Rasheed Wallace	14.91
Hedo Turkoglu	14.82
Von Wafer	14.79
RFM	14.79
Anderson Varajao	14.62
Rasho Nesterovic	14.15
Zaza Pachulia	14.14
Joe Smith	13.85
Raymond Felton (RFA)	13.80
Shelden Williams	13.78
Chris Wilcox	13.37
Jarrett Jack (RFA)	13.10
Wally Szczerbiak	12.18
Anthony Parker	12.16
Solomon Jones	12.08
Robert Swift	11.50
Theo Ratliff	11.22
Glen Davis (RFA)	10.77
Raef Lafrentz	10.40
Channing Frye (RFA)	10.09
Ime Udoka	9.57
Stromile Swift	6.80
Malik Rose	5.28

We know that PER isn't the perfect tool, but this gives a general idea of what's out there and by a little more advanced statistical look, how our current free agents stack up.

Some thoughts:

Some of these players need to be looked at not how they did last year specifically, but how they are trending, their age, etc. For example, Andre Miller still looks like a productive PG, but how will he look at the end of a three year contract, if he accepts that? Same goes for our own Mike Bibby.

Also, one year aberrations should be noted as well, as in the case of RFM, who had his second best season out of the (7) seasons in the league.

Drew Gooden is in his Age 28 season in the league. Seems like he's been in the league for a long time. He is likely entering the "underrated productive forward" stage of his career and then end up in "used to be underrated but then everyone realized he was underrated and now he overrated/overpaid" part of his career. Bottom line---he's always been productive (he always seems to kill the Hawks) and will likely be underrated going into this offseason--could be a bargain.

Robert Swift was as productive as Solomon Jones, though both played in limited minutes---but it's interesting to note in case Rick Sund decides to bring Swift aboard.

Trevor Ariza is poised to get wildly overpaid (thanks to his Finals run) for somebody with his track record of league average play.

It will be interesting to see how Allen Iverson performs next season. 2008-09 was obviously his worst season, but has been a terrific producer (if you can handle what he does/doesn't do offensively) statistically. He is prime for a 1-year, prove it, contract--but from whom? You would think that Atlanta would suit him perfect--the town would love him, his defense would look superb compared to what currently passes, and he (ahem) knows the Hawks offense.

Speaking of shorter deals, Jason Kidd has settled into the next tier down from his excellent run in New Jersey. He is going into his Age 36 year, so one has to wonder what he has left--likely looking at a Sam Cassell circa 2005 contract (2 years). His fit on the Hawks would be questionable, given the Hawks anxiety about pushing the ball (unless a forward has the ball) and the propensity towards isolation sets.

Borrowing from Hoopinion's great cap status post here, we can look at the Hawks financial outlook for 2009 as it stands today. It looks as if we can almost rule out a RFA signing, as even with tendering Marvin and renouncing everyone else (Zaza, Childress, et al) the Hawks could only start @ around 6 million for free agents. With the RFA list including Sessions, Lee, Nate, Charlie V, you would think that a contract starting there would be matched immediately.

Hakim Warrick has improved every season and last year came close to equaling Josh Smith's totals, though Smith's were his lowest since his second season. Warrick, however, doesn't come close to touching Smoove in the block/steal categories.

The HHB wishes that they could bring Zydrunas Ilgauskus in, given that he has consistently produced for CLE, can run a pick and pop, and rebounds so well. Shaq is more productive, even @ 3 years older than Z--but not by that much statistically and not in the same way. If Z gets away, then he'll be the top center out there for someone to grab.

Ben Gordon might wish that he already had that 6 year, 54 million dollar deal in hand--especially considering he had provided slightly above average numbers for the Bulls in his five seasons there. The Hawks can hope that Jeff Teague gives them that level of production with the 19th pick.

Admit it, you're surprised that Ron Artest is less productive than Marvin Williams. Look at his career, and you'll see he's been overrated compared to what his perceived value has been, not even measuring in the insanity factor.

(Sidenote: When he was a rookie in the 1999-2000 season, we mentioned to the late, great Jeffrey Denberg that we loved Artest's defensive intensity and wished he was on the Hawks, to which Denberg quickly responded, "You don't want him, he's psycho." In his rookie season. Well done, Mr. Denberg.)

You can see why Brandon Bass is getting some attention out there. Teams are probably thinking they can get the guy on the cheap, but his production since coming to Dallas has been obvious and it looks like people noticed, making him a candidate to get overpaid. When Bass worked out for the Hawks in 2004 when he first put his name in the draft--he looks like he is now, a tough competitor who doesn't look pretty, but gets the job done.

Shawn Marion used to be considered elite when he was @ Phoenix, but whether it's malaise or the effects of not being with an all-star PG, his production numbers have dropped across the board. A west coast team might be able to coax better seasons, especially those with a good point guard (let's rule out the Hawks then), considering he is entering his Age 31 season, but he may just be falling fast.

Hedo Turkoglu wants 50 million dollars over 5 years like Corey Maggette got last season, trying to revive the ol' "one bad contract deserves another" philosophy to negotiation. Turkoglu was a piece in the Magic's success, but it is saying something that the Magic would turn him loose so quick. They basically got an upgrade on the one trick pony by bringing in Vince Carter. This would be a player that the old Hawks might have signed, pre-Billy Knight. Thankfully, those days are gone--we hope.

Raymond Felton doesn't score well on the PER either, so it's good to look at why, considering Felton is touted as a good, young PG. His turnovers are high and his shooting percentage is awful, especially in the EFG, TS%, and his raw 3pt shooting, you understand why. When you have to envy Josh Smith's 3-pt prowess, you are struggling.

When you look at the crop of free agents, Marvin Williams comes out looking pretty good. Zaza Pachulia plays up to his backup center status and as one of the league's best offensive rebounders. Mike Bibby is as effective as his shot makes him--no big surprise there--last year being very good to him and lifting him above the league average. RFM produced at league average for minimum pay--he likely won't have to settle for that, but any team that signs him (especially the Hawks) have to understand his inconsistency and history. Solomon Jones may not get another look if the Hawks cut him loose, and while we have been down on Jones here, there are obviously worse players collecting a check. Doesn't mean the Hawks have to have him though, right?

UPDATE: As we said, we knew we'd miss someone, and Sekou has the name first on his free agents entry---his name and PER has been inserted--and yes, we should be interested--greatly.

UPDATE 2: Electric Boogaloo: Milwaukee has decided NOT to offer Charlie V a qualifier, making him unrestricted.

The HHB are not sabermagicians and understand that PER has limitations and this list may not be completely complete (hey, if airlines can have a last final call, we can have completely complete)---All conversation will be held inside the think tank that is the Comments Area.

Home Court 'Stache

To celebrate the pending home court clinching in the first round of the playoff, the Atlanta Hawks took the wrapper off of Marvin Williams, who had missed a surprising (16) games with his injured back.

That he only scored (5) points or played a mere (12) minutes in the Hawks fourth-place clinching 122-118 win over the Indiana Pacers was almost irrelevant--the Mustache and its mystical healing powers was back.

To gauge the impact that Marvin has made on the people that watch and surround the team, one need only note that the crowd gave Marvin a standing ovation (no, they weren't shooting t-shirts into the crowd at that time) when he entered the game for the first time. That, combined with the anticipation built up from the blogs and newspapers (ok, just the AJC) and it's clear many were eager for the 'Stache's return.

All of which is a testament not only to the improvement Marvin has made from last season to this one, but also the obvious good guy label everyone has noticed and begun to embrace--he is dependable, productive, and from all forms that we have to check this sort of thing, a good teammate. The Mustache also has the power to solve a Rubik's cube in (2) minutes---don't underestimate, appreciate.

He's gone from the guy who isn't someone else to a player that the ATL appreciates for his own skills and contributions. They won't give a Most Improved Award to him this year, but this season marks a massive step forward in our books.

On the court, the Hawks did one thing a little better than in recent games in that they seemed to go at the paint a little more regularly, which allowed for a more efficient (though we will wait for the official breakdown of that when Hoopinion rolls out the statistical barrel later to know for sure) offensive night.

The Hawks attacked and went to the line for a staggering (45) free throws, of which they made (34), led by the high scorer of the night, Josh Smith. Smoove didn't completely rid himself of the many on the court demons that can sabotage his overall effectiveness, but he did have a strong night across the board, even attacking the glass on both ends. His offensive rebound late in the game helped seal the game---he hit the floor a couple of times----Josh was genuinely using his massive powers for good, and the box score filled up accordingly.

Also on the attack was Al Horford, who spent his night, as he does on most nights, sprinting up and down the court---Against the Pacers, the Hawks actually rewarded his efforts on a number of occasions, as he relentlessly raced slower matchups like Roy Hibbert and Jeff Foster and was able to cash in from a very generous Mike Bibby (9 assists) and Joe Johnson as well. Horford owned the glass, grabbing (13) of his (15) rebounds on the defensive end. In all, a stellar 22/15/5 game from Al, who proved he can--if you let him.

Someone in the Hawks blogging nation mentioned it, and since the HHB working crew is short due to the Holiday (celebrate!) weekend, we aren't staffed appropriately to figure out who (we guess Peachtree Hoops), it's fun when Joe Johnson is hitting his threes as he was against IND (5-8), including one off of a Horford pick that was so sweet we wish we had the sound on a hot key---beautiful music. Joe was so good last night that it speaks volumes that Smith and Horford seemed to overshadow the Backcourt. 24/4/4 on a mere (15) shots--he's good, he's good.

For all of the goodness that the Hawks were displaying offensively, the defense didn't seem to coincide. For every terrific shot (like the aforementioned 3 from Joe) the Pacers raced the ball back up the court and caught the flatfooted Hawks scrambling to get in transition position. There were too many open Danny Granger and Troy Murphy looks from long range---and they made the Hawks pay.

In fact, if not for an abnormally bad night from the free throw line by Granger (7-11 is awful for the 89 percent shooter), the endgame would have been different. He did, though, and the Hawks did enough to win and clinch that first round home court, which means that the ATL can now make plans to be there and be loud for Games 1 and 2.

Agate Type:

Between Acie Law and Mo Evans inactivity (Sidenote: they mentioned Evans' Family Matters so much it sounded like a TBS promo for the old sitcom), Marvin being limited minutes to his (12) minutes, and an in game injury for Zaza Pachulia---it meant seeing a starting assignment for Flubber West and more minutes for Solomon Jones.

As for West---though he made a couple of plays out there---his output does not match his energy. To play (14) minutes, including a lot with the other (4) starters and put up the line that he did seems to be Exhibit A to Hawks GM Rick Sund on building the deeper bench next year. (5) fouls, (3) turnovers, and a whopping (-8) when he was playing with the starting lineup that all had positive +/- should tell Woody not to do that anymore, or at least send Hawks fans lining up to hope that Mo Evans' Family Matters are a short term issue.

As for Jones, he gives up so much to the other team when he is on the floor, but the difference tonight is that he was able to give some of it back for the Hawks with (7) points, rather than just being a liability all night.

That the Hawks played West and Jones together for portions of the game--like towards the end of the first quarter when the Hawks original lead melted away quickly---and came away with the win further spotlights, highlights, and demonstrates just how really good Johnson, Bibby, Smith, and Horford were.

The HHB wants to hear the ATL from its comfortable Orlando HQ---just like last year---However, if you want you can leave Game 1 tickets for us in the Comments Area.