Friday, February 5, 2010

THHB's Top 10 Hawks of the Decade: Number Seven

If you didn't already know, we invite you to check out our other End of the Hawks Decade articles:

A Decade of Hawks Aughts (and Aught-Nots),

Top Hawks by Statistical Category

THHB's Top 10 (and more) Hawks of the Decade, #10, #9, #8

Our next entry is a player that was undoubtedly the face of the Hawks in the 90's, post Dominique. His presence, statistical acumen, and unique personality carried him through the last days of Lenny Wilkens and into the dawn of the Lon Kruger era.

Our Number Seven Hawk of the Decade is:

Dikembe Mutombo

When folks think of Dikembe Mutombo, they usually conjure up the image of a blocked shot followed by a wagging finger followed closely by a variation of his signature Cookie-Monster like voice and laugh. What THHB remembers about the 7'2 giant is his tremendous productivity as one of the best ever to play for the Hawks.

Those who read us regularly know of our fondness for the shot-blocker---that's no lie---and Mutombo was terrific at it. Even though he was 33-34 years old during the first two years of the aughts, Deke's block rate was still top 10 in the L. For his career, Mutombo has the eighth best block shot rate, the seventh best blocks per game, the second most blocked shots total. He was a massive deterrent inside; his presence alone made driving opponents think twice while they shot inside against Dikembe.

Man did not fly in the House of Mutombo.

While his shot blocking was all-time level, what made Mutombo statistically special was his outstanding rebounding on both ends.

Mutombo easily distanced all Hawks in the aughts in Defensive (31.9) and Total Rebounding Rate (21.9). In the two seasons in Atlanta that decade, Deke led the NBA in DRR in '99-'00 and won the rebounding triple crown (ORR, DRR, and TRR) in '00-'01. For his efforts, Mutombo won the Defensive Player of the Year Award for 2000-2001.

Included in that terrific '00-'01 campaign was Deke's fourth trip to the AS game as a Hawk. In that game, Mutombo helped the East overcome a (19) point fourth quarter deficit to win the game in Washington DC. In it Mutombo blocked (3) shots and grabbed an astounding (22) rebounds. The performance complimented the scoring of Sixer star Allen Iverson and was played out in front on then-Philly coach Larry Brown.

The Hawks in 2000-2001 were clearly in a rebuilding period with the purging of Steve Smith and Mookie Blaylock before the previous season and Mutombo had over (30) million dollars coming to him in his Age 35 and 36 seasons in the two years left on his contract. Those variables plus the impression Dikembe left on Larry Brown made it no surprise when the Hawks dealt Mutombo to the Sixers for Toni Kukoc, Theo Ratliff, Nazr Mohammed, and Pepe Sanchez--just (11) days after that AS game.

Kukoc was tailing off already after years of pro ball dating back to his teen years and battled back problems up to the point where he was dealt in the Glenn Robinson deal two season later. Ratliff blocked shots like Mutombo, but wasn't near the rebounder the Hawks had come to know in Dikembe. Mohammed became a solid piece and tied for #10 on our All-Decade list.

In the end--understanding how it all played out--it would have been nice to be able to keep Mutombo around as a defensive presence and rebounder--even into the early part of Josh Smith's years--but it's unlikely the big man would have signed with the rebuilding Hawks, especially as the team shuffled through the Kruger and Terry Stotts years. Still, his presence here would have held down the since hard to staff position of center and personally given Dikembe significant momentum for his own Hall of Fame chances.

Mutombo's fantastic production and like-ability was sensational for his time with the Hawks, but is ranked seventh here due to the brevity of his time as a Hawk in the Aughts (131 games). Had he continued---he may have been number one.

Here is a reminder of the fun that was watching Mutombo--the greatest free agent signing ever for the Hawks:


Thursday, February 4, 2010

LAC-ATL Game Review: Turnabout Is Interesting Play

Wednesday night in Philips Arena, the Los Angeles Clippers were oh so close to claiming back-to-back wins in Atlanta's basketball home before giving way late in the fourth quarter to lose 103-97 to the Hawks.

Throughout the game, the Clippers controlled the contest, using their size inside with Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman to control the glass and make shots difficult for the one-on-one Hawks.

The Clippers got the early lead on their hosts, though neither team had much going on offensively. The Clippers held the lead for much of the first half, but emerged from the locker room in a funk, allowing the Hawks to turn them over (4) times in the first couple of minutes of the second half, allowing the Birds to finally take the lead in that stretch.

But, as they did throughout the game, every time the Hawks pulled close to the Clippers wagon, the visitors would hit the gas and extend the lead once more with aggressive play and good outside shooting. The Clippers got the lead out to (13) on back-to-back dunks by Rasual Butler with (2) minutes left in the third quarter.

The Hawks then went on a shooting spree, knocking down consecutive threes from Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford and adding in a layup from Josh Smith. Then, with the Hawks down (5) in the closing seconds of the quarter, Crawford completed his 24th four-point play, tying him with Reggie Miller for the all-time NBA record and bringing the Hawks to within a single point of the Clipper lead.

But just as before when the Hawks caught up to the charging Clippers, Los Angeles pulled away yet again, extending the lead back out to (9) with nine minutes to go.

In games past, the Hawks have been called out for resorting to a Joe-centric offensive game plan, especially when times got rough on the offensive end. The Hawks could hardly be criticized for doing so the last couple of games, as Johnson has been among the hottest scorers in the league, yet the team has sought to diversify during the last few games and avoid the now-infamous Iso-Joe sets that opponents have been sitting on when chasing down the Hawks.

In the fourth, while attempting to once again pull even with the Clippers, the Hawks spread the ball around getting the ball into Al Horford for some inside points and Crawford for some mid-range magic. Meanwhile Johnson continued to scope for scoring opportunities himself, getting to the line for a couple of free throws, getting the Hawks back to within a point.

The Clippers had done a wonderful job of contesting many of the Hawks shots, especially inside. holding the Hawks to below (50) percent on shots at the rim to that point. But, incredibly, the Clippers let their defenses down late in this game as Johnson took his man off the dribble and got to the square for (3) close range baskets, the last of which accounted for his 29th and 30th points and gave the Hawks a (4) point lead.

Then, after Horford knocked down a pair of free throws to maintain the advantage that Johnson had previously provided, the Clippers took a page out of the much maligned Hawks playbook.

The Clippers had built their lead for much of the night by attacking the Hawks defense in its undersized middle, moving the ball from side to side, hitting cutters to the basket, and taking advantage of the Hawks switch-a-roo defense by grabbing (14) offensive rebounds, (10) of which were attributed to Marcus Camby (who had 20 boards for the game).

They had scored (52) points in the paint to this point in the game when Baron Davis, who had a modest game going, took on the Hawks defense one-on-five, an Iso-Baron, if you will. Davis took an ill-advised layup and fade-away in consecutive trips, missing both, allowing the Hawks to build the lead out to (7) before Davis came down and hit a three, completing his triumvirate of self-serving possessions down the stretch. Johnson played out the fouling end game, making four free throws, thereby sealing his game high (34) point performance and the Hawks win, a steal of a win as any home game could be.


Thoughts as Random as Eric Gordon's Shot Selection

THHB applauds two unique stat lines in the game: Camby's 6 point, 20 rebound, 6 assist game and Mike Bibby's 4 point, 4 board, 3 assist, 4 steal effort. Bravo.

We're going to go ahead and place that wager that says the Hawks will win all games when Johnson and Crawford have more than 1.2 points per possession used---though this game was close to beating those odds--even with Johnson @ 1.29 and Crawford @ 1.28.

Count us among the happy ATL masses that only saw Al Thornton (4-6, 8 points) on the floor for (21) minutes. Maybe we were still dizzy from the (13-22, 31 point, 7 rebound, 6 assist) performance Thornton laid down on the Hawks last season while the Clippers blew Atlanta out in Philips last year. Hey, Mike Dunleavy, were not mad at ya--thank you!

Somewhere in the second half, Horford started going straight up against the Clipper front line, accepting the contact and getting his points from the line. Every bit of his 16/10 night was needed to get the job done, as was the double digit rebounds efforts from his front court mates (Marvin Williams-10, Josh Smith-10).

With the terrific height advantage and success they were having in the paint, we're surprised the Clippers deferred and took as many outside shots as they did. They were 10-37 from further than (16) feet.


Wednesday, February 3, 2010

ATL-OKC Game Review: Have The Thunder Passed the Hawks?

Among the many items to consume in the 106-99 Hawks loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder is whether the young upstarts from Oklahoma are really already beyond the Hawks in terms of their progression as a team.

Yes, as Mike Prada over at Bullets Forever noted to us over on Twitter after the game, the Hawks are further ahead in the standings than the Thunder, and while that calmed the veracity of our opinion, it didn't stop us from looking further into the numbers to change our minds for sure.

Looking into the Fabled Four Factors we see the following:

Team A:  102/100 Off/Def Efficiency, 48.63/47.33 EFG% (Own/Opp), 32.6/30.1 FT Rate, 14.58/14.21 Turnover Rate, 28.35/27.36 Offensive Rebounding Rate

Team B:  108.4/103.5 O/D Effic., 50.47/49.73 EFG%, 27.8/28.8 FTR, 11.38/13.72 TO Rate, 27.58/27.07 ORR


Pretty close, and those who watch the Hawks know that Team A is the Thunder and Team B, with the low own turnover rate, is Atlanta.

That turnover rate is the only thing, statistically, keeping the Hawks ahead of the Thunder at this current juncture, as it impacts both efficiencies. With the Thunder's age/experience difference, you might expect them to have a higher turnover rate than the more seasoned Hawks.

Weigh in that the Thunder are still rising this season, while the Hawks are tailing off a little bit from their league leading start. Even in the Basketball-Reference stat, SRS, the Thunder are closing in, ranking 10th while the Hawks have slipped from 1st to 5th.

Now look on the court, where OKC has taken care of the Hawks twice now. They are active and long defensively, out Hawks-ing the Hawks, giving ATL all kinds of fits inside, especially on the glass, where the Thunder outworked the Hawks for (17) offensive rebounds, including (5) from PG Russell Westbrook. The Hawks started the season faring better on the defensive glass, but have slipped back into the familiar twenties (21st before Tuesday's game) in that category.

Offensively, the Hawks, despite THHB's harping on sharing the ball more and working inside-out for better shots, still outpace the Thunder in Assist Rate, though OKC shoots a considerable lower percentage of three point shots per game than does ATL.

The Hawks have the great Joe Johnson, whose ability to score was on display again against OKC, under control for (37) points, with (4) of his (13) buckets assisted. Johnson hit on some iso, but the ball found him in good positions to score and Joe took advantage of a shifting defense to get in the lane and get higher percentage looks. All (4) of his assisted baskets occurred from the outside (16) feet.

They also have Al Horford who, while being recognized as one of the league's best as an All-Star, still plays timid at times around the rim. Horford shot 2-6 at the rim against OKC, and hasn't lost the habit of bringing the ball all the way down below his waist when preparing to hoist himself up around the rim. The process takes so long that the opponents can collapse on him and block his shot. This has caused Al to get into a habit of trying to sneak the ball into the basket, resulting in--on one occasion, sending the ball quickly and inaccurately way too high and hard off the glass versus trying to stuff it home or draw a foul.

Josh Smith, who became the youngest player in NBA history to reach (1000) blocked shots, had a nice game as well (15/6/3), gives the Hawks a nice triumvirate of talent, but neither he (5) nor Horford (2) got enough defensive rebounds to hold the Thunder in check. The (6) extra shots and (7) extra free throw attempts were enough to make the difference between winning and losing against the Thunder.

On the Thunder roster are a number of solid, young players. Jeff Green and James Harden provide toughness and shotmaking, and Westbrook is an energetic playmaker. But what has moved the Thunder so far, so fast, is the continued improvement of (surprise) Kevin Durant, and his ascent from potential to arrival.

Nobody has to be reminded that Durant is a superstar. His offensive prowess is evident, with his 100 rating stroke, but all of his rates are going up as well: rebounding, blocks, steals, etc. What we're seeing in OKC is the power of the superstar making the water rise to new levels. He's getting to the free throw line more and more, earning (14) throws against the Hawks.

It's the presence of the superstar that can lift franchises to greater heights than the team that is built around a number of fringe all-star caliber players. We've seen Cleveland go to greater heights than the roster around LeBron James would indicate---and OKC seems to be built much more efficiently than even that squad.

Looking back at the numbers, at this moment in time, the Hawks maintain an edge based on their ability to take care of the basketball. But the Thunder are right there statistically, and it won't be long before the star of Durant and the rest of the Thunder carries them above what even the talented Hawks can muster.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

THHB Conversation With: Mike Woodson on Offensive Pace

We've heard it from Mike Woodson before---the Hawks are better when they run.

And though we believe the coach believes it when he says that, as he did again with THHB before the Orlando game, we had to challenge Woodson that the Hawks play slower than most teams in the NBA, an accusation supported by the 8th slowest possession pace in the league (93.6 possessions).

Says the coach, "Ideally, we’d like to be able to score before the other team gets set up, especially the stronger defenses like Boston, Orlando, Cleveland, LA. But it isn’t always that way---you gotta be able to execute in the halfcourt sometime."

According to 82games.com, the Hawks take a shot within the first (10) seconds of their possession about (39) percent of the time, tied for 9th in the league, but just one percentage point ahead of six other teams, putting them pretty close to the median.

When pressed further, Woodson clarifies that to get that score before the other team sets up, the Hawks must play......defense.

"I want us to milk possessions and get the best shot possible—but when we win big, it’s when our defenses generate a lot of easier opportunities for us offensively."

"That’s when we’re at our best—when we’re capitalizing defensively on the turnovers and not turning it over ourselves. When we’re making stops, then rebounding the ball, getting deflections and things of that nature, that’s when we’re really at our best. Any team in the league is at their best when they are doing that."

The Hawks were much better at this earlier in the season, when they were ruling the roost in the advanced statistical categories, but recently Atlanta has seen their defensive rebounding (a bugaboo in past seasons) slip again, now down to 9th worst defensive rebounding rate. Should the Hawks continue their slide, it will be hard for them to maintain their high offensive efficiency, and to execute on their coach's idea of their most effective offensive possessions.

Woodson differentiates that the when he says he wants the Hawks to run, he doesn't mean pace for pace's sake, like say the Golden State Warriors, who routinely have a faster pace, but less efficient over 100 possessions.

"There’s nothing sloppy about how we play. If it was, we wouldn’t be where we are today, leading the division. When we are taking care of the basketball—when you don’t turn it over, you get more shots. We don’t get a lot of possessions, but we don’t turn it over, either."

We wonder about Woodson's theory, while it makes sense, does it make as much of an impact as he might think? His team does enjoy a fantastic (11.36) percent turnover rate and a quick tap at the official THHB abacus tells us that, the Hawks net (83) possessions per 100 when removing turned over possessions. How does that match up with, say, the 3rd fastest rate team, the Minnesota Timberwolves? Minnesota drops from (98.9) to (84.61), lending some weight to Woody's "effective possessions".

Regardless of what words he chooses to use about pace, it's not the speed of possession that truly matters, but the manner of care to which it is treated. Woodson's style is still more Larry Brown than Doug Moe and the results are there---the Hawks are still in the top 5 in many of the advanced offensive team statistics .

THHB thanks Coach Mike Woodson and the Atlanta Hawks for their time for this interview. Opinions and theories (as well as challenging our University of Florida math) can be done safely in the Comments Area.

Monday, February 1, 2010

THHB Conversation With: Al Horford

Much to our surprise, delightfully so, last Thursday Al Horford was named to the Eastern Conference All-Star team. THHB was all set to explain why we thought Al was going to go unrecognized at that level. We were going to point to the obvious underuse, the lack of looking past at raw numbers to decide merit and standing in the NBA. We now happily send that opinion to the Recycle Bin.

So, what happened? Well, it looks as if the hard work and efficiency doesn't get lost in the stats. At Florida, Al also posted "low" numbers due to the amount of talent and distribution of offensive wealth among the back-to-back champions. Horford was confident as he entered the NBA that he could do even more at the pro level, but was immediately met with challenges with his new job.

In addition to adjusting to the speed and power of the pro game, Horford had to deal with playing where he called "out of position" in the center spot. This move caused Al to temper his perception of how far he could go in the league.

"Playing out of the position can be difficult to reach certain goals," noted Horford. He was unsure, even going into his second season, that staying at the center position was going to benefit him in terms of statistics and efficiency.

After Horford's rookie season, GMs changed, with Rick Sund replacing Billy Knight. Sund, however, firmly believes that Horford can be a difference maker--at center---and set about, with the help of his head coach, in convincing the willing big man that he can achieve his goals--even at center.

"Talking with GM Rick Sund and Coach Woodson they always had confidence that I could play in this position and be an all star," confirmed Horford.

Horford has excelled, though he routinely gives ground in height and weight most every night out. Still, in Atlanta's uber switching defense, Horford just as readily defends guards as centers. His quick feet and lower body power helps him on defense, but Al still is troubled by going up against taller, longer players when he gets the ball offensively.

Horford agrees: "No question—but I feel like I have gotten better playing them (taller guys)---there’s still a size disadvantage but I feel I try to use my size and quickness little things that those guys aren’t able to do."

THHB has been campaigning for the Hawks to work the ball inside out for the last couple of seasons---and now such a strategy involves including Horford as a channel through which to work the ball. His good hands, nice passing touch, and growing ability inside makes him an efficient method for which the Hawks could create good possessions. Recently, Mike Woodson has seen fit to push the ball more through this route--and Horford is ready.

"Coach has shown confidence in me in key parts of the game. He wants the ball in the post and he wants me (and Josh Smith) to be able to make plays," says Horford.

"I don’t think that my rookie year these are the things I was ready to do."

In all, Horford has made his mark in three short seasons, at a position he didn't know for sure if he could be this kind of success. His hard work, energy, and athleticism has gotten at least the coaches' attention. While he may have had more Usage elsewhere, he has definitely benefited from being on a talented, visible, growing team--an advantage he does not ignore.

"I’m thankful for all my teammates for making it easier for me. We try to make each other look good—I set them up and they set me up in return."

THHB thanks Al Horford and the Hawks Media Relations Staff for access for this interview. Follow up questions and opinions can be filed in the Comments Area.